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Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

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Re: Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

#151

Post by dllthomas »

unclebucknasty wrote: post #136
dllthomas wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Neither has been proved, therefore either is equally likely" is false, and if you believed that to be the case you would be horribly calibrated in your judgements, and parent would be right to criticize it. Plausibility is of course a much lower standard, but there is still some correct level of belief; I disagree with the parent in asserting that it is clearly below "plausible" but it's a legitimate discussion.

> Neither has been proved, therefore either is equally likely" is false I didn't say that. Go back and read my post. In fact, it's the opposite. We have many trying to claim the illegitimacy of asking questions, because there is no direct evidence. The parent went so far as to ridicule those asking questions. So, it is they who are making claims about which is more likely, given a lack of evidence in either direction…

I know you didn't say that. Read my post more carefully.

Though actually, you're close to saying it here:

"[I]t is they who are making claims about which is more likely, given a lack of evidence in either direction."

If you lack evidence in either direction, your estimate of likelihood should be at your priors. If your mental model assigns the same prior probability to assassination as to car accidents, it's likely broken.

I recommend reading through http://lesswrong.com/lw/19m/privileging_the_hypothesis

Re: Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

#153

Post by sage_joch »

scythe wrote: post #130
smoyer wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And suddenly the conspiracy theorists are wondering if Taylorious works for the NSA ;) Your points are well organized and I tend to agree (especially that there would be an easier way to get rid of him), but I don't think you'll stop those that see a conspiracy around every corner. I tend to see our government (today) as a very mismanaged large corporation. There are people over-reaching and those above them are tryi…

I am afraid Taylorious misses the point. I am afraid sage_joch misses the point in an even worse way. You may be surprised to hear this: it does not matter politically one tiny iota whether the FBI killed Michael Hastings. He's just one journalist, there are many like him. What matters is what happens after Mr. Hastings' death. If the FBI is to be trusted, they will deny involvement on the low and the high: a trustwo…

Well, this comment made me think. It's not every day you get called a potential NSA provocateur. But I'm not sure what you're suggesting with respect to my future comments. When I comment on political topics, I have a couple motivations: to shine light on a potentially bleak-looking situation, and to bounce ideas off a community of incredibly smart people. Are you saying I should avoid any kind of speculation? That might be reasonable, but sticking to hard facts doesn't make the situation look much better. If you count Julian Assange as a journalist, high-ranking members of the government have not been shy about making death threats against him. And the recent story about Barrett Brown should give anyone pause. I'm not asking rhetorically; I'd seriously like to know what you're suggesting.

Re: Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

#155

Post by mapt »

jaredstenquist wrote: post #122
DigitalSea wrote: post #18

How does a 2013 model Mercedes Benz with a five star ANCAP safety rating (the highest rating you can get) scoring 35.51 points scored out of 37 (an Australian car safety rating for reference) with more airbags than wheels (8 airbags for those of you playing at home including a curtain airbag that drops in-front of the passenger and driver protecting the head and upper-body from impacting anything) crash into a tree w…

(former firefighter) I would look to local and state police for their reports. Any fatal accident with a possibility of foul play, or obvious foul play (DUI, etc) resulted in us assisting the State Police reconstruction team while they processed the scene, measuring and photographing everything to the millimeter, because once we cleaned it up, there was no going back. That said, I've also seen plenty of crazy vehicle…

Of course they don't, but survival rates for wearing a seatbelt are much higher than survival rates for not wearing a seatbelt.

Personally, I want a 5-point harness if I ever end up driving in a risky fashion.

Re: Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

#156

Post by tptacek »

gruseom wrote: post #94
eridius wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never even heard of Michael Hasting's death before today, so I don't have an opinion yet, but I find it hilarious that someone who is implying that a conspiracy is at work here is telling everyone to "apply a little grain of common sense". Conspiracy theories are not common sense.

Conspiracy theories are not common sense That's a tautology. The phrase "conspiracy theory" intends something only a fool or a fanatic would believe—that's why it's always accompanied by ridiculing language. Cases shown to be real are not called "conspiracy theories" but "history".

Do you believe this car wreck was suspicious?

You're right that the term "conspiracy theory" is dismissive. Is it wrong to be dismissive of the theory that Hastings was killed using his car?

Re: Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

#157

Post by anthuswilliams »

ScottBurson wrote: post #77
DigitalSea wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not impossible to crash any car, the alternate reality here is that a brand new car with more safety features than a padded cell crashed by itself at 4:30am in the morning into a tree and exploded on impact. The point is these cars are built to try and avoid these kind of accidents at all cost, the plethora of safety features cars like these have makes it a lot more difficult than say an early 00's vehicle crash…

> When a car crashes isn't an engine pushed back into the cabin, not thrown forwards? It certainly can be, but considering that he hit a tree -- a narrow object, not like a wall -- I could imagine that if the impact point was not in the center of the car, the tree might not have been directly in front of the engine, and thus it could come out. Obviously he had to have been going petty fast, though.

More to the point, is the engine being thrown 100 feet somehow more consistent with an assassination plot than with a general high-speed collision? I can't see how it could be.

Re: Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

#158

Post by JshWright »

natmaster wrote: post #147
corresation wrote: post #5

Another possibility is that he had a nervous breakdown or substance abuse episode, leading to both the paranoid emails and the irrational vehicle operations. Obviously I'm not saying that's the case, but the extremely irrational driving goes fits a theory of paranoid delusions (brought on by any number of mechanisms), just as the hacked car system goes with about to uncover something big.

Unless there is evidence that he has a history with drug abuse, it seems significantly more likely the government was involved in this.

Significantly more likely? I'd like to see _any_ evidence you have that this was anything other than a tragic accident before I'd be willing to consider it even 'a little bit likely'. You have a very long way to go before you can claim 'significantly more likely'.

Re: Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

#159

Post by oceanstone »

knowaveragejoe wrote: post #143
oceanstone wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it was related to TrapWire, a cloud service that has facial, emotional, and behavioral recognition. It would tie in well with the upstream fibertap, and PRISM programs.

Doubtful, trapwire is entirely public if you do research on it. Also, emotion and behavioral recognition is pretty far fetched.

Behavioral recognition is pretty much TrapWire's value proposition.

Re: Michael Hastings Sent Panicked Email Hours Before Car Crash

#160

Post by JshWright »

glasz wrote: post #19

while this story is about a week old and got lost in all this nsa nonsense, listen to what mr. hastings said before his death. even on tv. i am german and i can tell you that a mercedes benz DOES NOT just blow up and spit its engine 100yd down the street. the car wasn't even really against the tree... sometimes you just need to apply a little grain of common sense, ppl.

I'll see your 'German' qualification, and raise your decade of experience as a Firefighter/EMT.

The car didn't blow up, it caught fire. That's not common, but it does happen. Same with the engine getting tossed... Not common, but it happens.

I've seen both scenarios a handful of times (and surprisingly enough, they have a high correlation with fatalities).

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