Live data from Hacker News

Are coders worth it?

aeonmagazine.com

251–260 of 324 posts

Re: Are coders worth it?

#251
I was thinking for some time about this text and there is one thing that's been bugging me. This is one sentiment that could be applied to most jobs out there:

> We call ourselves web developers, software engineers, builders, entrepreneurs, innovators. We’re celebrated, we capture a lot of wealth and attention and talent. We’ve become a vortex on a par with Wall Street for precocious college grads. But we’re not making the self-driving car. We’re not making a smarter pill bottle. Most of what we’re doing, in fact, is putting boxes on a page. Users put words and pictures into one box; we store that stuff in a database; and then out it comes into another box.

You can compare this to dentistry. It's a highly regarded profession and the wages are really good. But most dentists just pull a tooth out or drill it and put a filling. It's not rocket science, and when was that last time a dentist made a recipe for a new type of filling? And the profession itself didn't make really huge leaps in the last hundred years. My hour as a programmer in croatia is worth around 10 USD. A dentist gets 20 USD just to look at your teeth and charges 50 USD for a white filling which they can do in under an hour.

One more thing. Lawyers, dentists and some other professions have associations that determine minimum prices "to assure high quality of work". Something to think about.

Re: Are coders worth it?

#252
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great point. Because software has near-zero replication costs, the "manufacturing" process has no good analog for software industry. The manufacturing industry is supported by an army of engineers in a wide variety of specialties. In fact, manufacturing, in some ways, is starting to look a little more similar to software, because the non-material costs of production are falling (automation replaces direct l…

Because software has near-zero replication costs, the "manufacturing" process has no good analog for software industry. I wonder how many "business people" have a hard time understanding this concept, resulting in the typical shortsightedness that results in Build It Cheap And Fix It Later, where "later" almost never finds its time.

Yet they wonder why rewrites are fairly common in vNext implementations...

Re: Are coders worth it?

#253

This article seems to be missing a parallel that was drawn previously many times. PG has written on the subject, and so have others. The closest parallel we can draw between "coders" and the distant past, is that with the artisans of the middle ages. Aside from the landowning nobles, the artisan class was probably the closest thing to a true middle class. Many advanced to upper-middle and later became the industrial…

I think software development won't be done by machines any time soon. The reason is that the work done by programmers is almost always unique, tailored to the specifics of the situation. All but the crappiest programmers can automate repetitive tasks. Therefore, programmers - by definition - always make something new or slightly different. If it was repetitive, they would automate it.

Re: Are coders worth it?

#254

This article seems to be missing a parallel that was drawn previously many times. PG has written on the subject, and so have others. The closest parallel we can draw between "coders" and the distant past, is that with the artisans of the middle ages. Aside from the landowning nobles, the artisan class was probably the closest thing to a true middle class. Many advanced to upper-middle and later became the industrial…

Software engineering has not yet gone through a true manufacturing disruption. We cannot put software on the kind of assembly line/stamping process we can with say door hinges or other metal works that used to require a skilled blacksmith. That doesn't mean it won't happen some day. We also can't do this with writing. Is software more like writing prose, or more like manufacturing? That's the heart of the issue as I…

Software is design. We can't put design on any kind of assembly line / stamping process. This seems like it will remain true for a long time.

Re: Are coders worth it?

#255
Web developers are not worth very much I'd say.

The web is a clusterfuck of pages users can only read and leave comments on. You won't really do anything relevant with the web. It's useless compared to the speed of current internet accesses. The only thing people use are internet browsers, which use HTTP as a basis, which is telnet. The web is still using old techs and no engineers is really trying to make new things, besides to-the-metal tech like bittorrent.

The internet is not just a web of websites, the internet is also connections between pairs, which is soooo much flexible.

Right now, what does applications do ? They select data from a database, with nice data structures, then they write this huge text file and send it. Your browser then parse this stuff to make some sense of it, you put data in it, and it's sent back. Google then parse aaaaall this, and tries to make some sense out of it. And somehow they manage. The web is like people communicating with mail instead of using real time telephone conversations. It's very inefficient. People try to make real time stuff with it, like facebook and their huge cluster, but it's really a sad show. JS has now almost replaced the role of C and C++ in execution speed. But it's still sent by mail.

I thought webrtc sockets would fix that, but in the end it's a huge fail, you can't connect to an IP address directly, it's still that centralized clusterfuck.

Re: Are coders worth it?

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Stamping out software is what your Windows/OSX/linux installation CD/DVD is. Microsoft is making a lot of money stamping out (figuratively nowadays) copies of Windows. Software engineering is the equivalent of the mechanical engineer combined with mold maker for plastic or stamped parts . The whole quote shows he disagrees and thinks the analogue is wrong You only excerpted part of the quote which was contradicting…

I agree that the quote suggests that gvb disagrees and thinks the analogy is wrong, or at least inferior to his analogy. I mean, gvb's alternate analogy is also a good one. Yes, writing software is like configuring the assembly line, and yes both of those things are expensive work for highly-trained professionals. And yes the interesting difference is that 99.999% of the cost of making software is this design, wherea…

I think it will be more like a new literacy. Everyone will learn to program quite a bit, and professional writers will be relatively rare.

Artisans always were tied into the production as well as the design. Mass writing ability however is more what you're seeing like the internet did to journalism. I anticipate something like THAT happening, not something related to artisans really.

Re: Are coders worth it?

#257

This article seems to be missing a parallel that was drawn previously many times. PG has written on the subject, and so have others. The closest parallel we can draw between "coders" and the distant past, is that with the artisans of the middle ages. Aside from the landowning nobles, the artisan class was probably the closest thing to a true middle class. Many advanced to upper-middle and later became the industrial…

Software engineering has not yet gone through a true manufacturing disruption. We cannot put software on the kind of assembly line/stamping process we can with say door hinges or other metal works that used to require a skilled blacksmith. That doesn't mean it won't happen some day. We also can't do this with writing. Is software more like writing prose, or more like manufacturing? That's the heart of the issue as I…

Logical processes are pretty much ripe for exploiting via AI, but you're right. Lateral thinking processes - pretty much one of the hallmarks of humankind (that and absurdly good communication skills) - are going to be extremely hard to emulate. How does a computer go from examining pipes in houses, then make a parallel to half-pipes in skateboarding to understand better waterflow by the way boarders move through the pipe? Maybe through human guided modeling something like this could occur, but unforced, this is the holy grail.

That may be a silly example but that's just one avenue (wordplay) of lateral thinking, a subset of creative thought and processes.

Re: Are coders worth it?

#258
Oh boy, I have a lot of comments here, most of them in agreement with the article but not all.

According to all the anecdotal knowledge I have, my conclusion has been that currently software engineering and chemical engineering are tied for the locally optimal career choice for those with a four year degree or less. While some college graduates (or dropouts) will go become billionaires, as a general rule, it is quite hard to do better in a career without further education than you can with these two types of engineering.

Software and chemical engineering also both have their own "meccas": SV for software, Houston for chemical. Google/Facebook/etc. for software, Exxon/Chevron/etc. for chemical.

That said, anyone who thinks software developers are on the verge of being overpaid should consider how low developers (and most workers) are on the overall wage ladder. Maybe $150k sounds high to the typical person born and raised in the middle class, but that's pennies compared to the typical salaries in the true upper class. Moreover, the majority of developers making salaries around that number live in the most expensive cities in the country, not the cheaper ones.

As a general rule, software developers are in the middle class or upper middle class, but not the upper class. Of course, it depends on your definition of the various social classes. If you define it as the one percent, you'd need to make about $350k. If you define it as those whose primary income derives from investments rather than salaries, then even that is not nearly enough.

What's an example of something close to an "upper class career"? Some but certainly not all doctors would make it. Family physicians wouldn't be close (they're about the same as engineers in the end), but specialized academic surgeons will make $500k-$1M/year. At many universities with medical schools, the top surgical faculty will make about double the president of the university.

A successful trader of financial assets can make seven figures. This is almost common on Wall Street, but it happens elsewhere. The youngest billionaire in Houston right now made his fortune from Enron: he was a trader of energy derivatives and after making the company some $75 million one year he was awarded about an $8M bonus. He then started his own energy trading firm and went on to make a few billion.

A partner at McKinsey, the management consulting firm, will make seven figures in total compensation. A partner at any major law firm will make the same.

These aren't extraordinarily difficult careers to get into. Becoming a surgeon is mostly about planning ahead and dedication. Becoming a partner at a firm is just about putting in the hours for years. Literally anybody on Wall Street will make $100k minimum unless they're like a receptionist, and from there you can work your way onto the trading floor.

And let's not even talk about top business executives, who put all those salaries to shame. And contrary to popular belief there is a reasonably effective method towards becoming such an executive: Harvard/Wharton MBA, consultant at McKinsey, eventually hired by a company you consulted for. That's how Skilling got on as CEO of Enron. That's how my friend's dad, a CEO making $4M/year, got his job. Etc. There are tons of examples of it.

It happens all the time. Most people just don't know about it. Many people often think it's all luck getting into the upper ranks of the executives, but that's because they think it's done by choosing a company at a young age and working there for 20+ years. That's not how it's done in general. It happens occasionally, but you have to network your ass off for decades to make that work. But if you're a consultant, then you'll be hired by the top executives to help them solve problems. You just skipped all the lower ranks thanks to just a few years of business school. (This doesn't work with an MBA from anywhere but the most prestigious schools.)

In short, there are a number of careers where at your peak you'll make not a six figure salary but a seven figure salary. If you think back to how long the phrase "six figure salary" has been in use, you'll realize that, with inflation, a seven figure salary is quite accurately the new six figure salary in expensive cities like SF and NYC. People in these cities who aren't making such a salary are often willfully ignorant of this fact. They want the prestige of a "six figure salary," even though their buying power is an order of magnitude less than what that phrase originally referred to.

Re: Are coders worth it?

#259
I took away four things from this enjoyable, well-written, but overly long article:

1. The author's sister might not have been crazy to question the fairness of capitalism.

2. The average software engineer in the Bay Area innovates a lot less than the average "real" engineer.

3. Being a web developer in the startup world rocks.

4. Coffee Meets Bagels sounds like a great dating app.

Re: Are coders worth it?

#260
post #258

Oh boy, I have a lot of comments here, most of them in agreement with the article but not all. According to all the anecdotal knowledge I have, my conclusion has been that currently software engineering and chemical engineering are tied for the locally optimal career choice for those with a four year degree or less. While some college graduates (or dropouts) will go become billionaires, as a general rule, it is quite…

If I could upvote this twice, I would. Software engineering is a great profession, but it's certainly not overpaid (well, the bad ones are overpaid, but the good ones are often underpaid).

There are many relatively straightforward routes to more $$; most people just don't know about them.

Post reply on HN