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Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

theage.com.au

171–180 of 188 posts

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#171
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about nuclear waste though? You end up with some tons of radioactive material which you have to store in high-security underground facilities with the hope that in some time in the future humanity will find a way to dispose it in a safer way.

G'day mate, here in australia we're leading the world in nuclear waste storage. After giving our best scientists 30 years to spend on the question, we've finally brought it to a head, and are in the process of unveiling a state of the art solution. here's what we've done: found a remote and isolated spot of land in the middle of a 3000km long highway. we've paid a pittance and reminded the small local indigenous comm…

"The idea that the best way to promote economic advancement in the Northern Territory is to post six of the loneliest security guards in the country to guard against people tampering with radioactive waste for the next three centuries absolutely beggars belief. They waved around a $12 million cheque in the community, north of Tennant Creek, which wanted a decent road and some community education support for their kids. That $12 million cheque was dangled in their faces in exchange for hosting what they thought was going to be a rubbish dump."

http://scott-ludlam.greensmps.org.au/content/speeches/aborig...

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's disingenuous to call "solar and wind" an alternative on the same level as nuclear and coal. For one thing, it's an incomplete alternative; it needs to be paired with some form of country scale battery for when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. This is covered in the excellent book Without Hot Air[1] which breaks down power usage and generation potential (using UK figures), primarily to discuss we…

> it needs to be paired with some form of country scale battery This isn't true, as distributed power networks are actually preferable. I'd much rather have uninterrupted power supply at the home than try and rely on an entire network to provide it for me.

At least in the United States, if the Grid goes down, then your home solar system (including battery supply) is automatically shut down as well for safety reasons.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#173
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thing no life forms are exposed to radiation such as UV, cosmic rays, or naturally-occuring radioactive elements such as Carbon-14, Potassium-40, or Uranium then, we'd be screwed after only a few generations! Oh, wait...

what's your point? people do get old and sick. the fact that radiation exists naturally in the environment doesn't mean its good for you, and doesnt mean that more won't pose an increased health hazard

On the other hand, it does mean that we were evolved to at least be able to procreate in the presence of a constant radiation flux.

There's such a wide gulf in possible levels of radiation exposure that radiation health physicists are to this very day still unsure whether constant exposure to low levels of radiation is actually harmful at all. They haven't even been able to rule out that it's not beneficial.

But either way, if you're worried about exposure to radiation you should be more worried about coal plants than nuclear plants; coal plants emit so much radioactivity to the environment that their exhaust would generate more power in a nuke plant, if it could be harvested properly.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#174
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's your point? people do get old and sick. the fact that radiation exists naturally in the environment doesn't mean its good for you, and doesnt mean that more won't pose an increased health hazard

On the other hand, it does mean that we were evolved to at least be able to procreate in the presence of a constant radiation flux. There's such a wide gulf in possible levels of radiation exposure that radiation health physicists are to this very day still unsure whether constant exposure to low levels of radiation is actually harmful at all. They haven't even been able to rule out that it's not beneficial. But eith…

yes we can procreate in the presence of some radiation: could you set a lower compliance bar for any pollutant?

beneficial impacts are pretty much fringe science. FWIW, there has been experimental demonstration of minimal ionizing radiation causing mutation in a single cell.

and most regulatory standards around the world continue to reduce 'acceptable limits'. I think the most recent example is the reduction in exposure to radon exposure that has been recognised in a number of national standards. I read that as showing that people who understand the science more than myself are still, decades later, finding more cause for caution.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#175
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, it does mean that we were evolved to at least be able to procreate in the presence of a constant radiation flux. There's such a wide gulf in possible levels of radiation exposure that radiation health physicists are to this very day still unsure whether constant exposure to low levels of radiation is actually harmful at all. They haven't even been able to rule out that it's not beneficial. But eith…

yes we can procreate in the presence of some radiation: could you set a lower compliance bar for any pollutant? beneficial impacts are pretty much fringe science. FWIW, there has been experimental demonstration of minimal ionizing radiation causing mutation in a single cell. and most regulatory standards around the world continue to reduce 'acceptable limits'. I think the most recent example is the reduction in expos…

Radiation hormesis is not "fringe science". As only one example, consider http://www.jpands.org/vol13no3/cohen.pdf which is an overview from 2008 of some of the issues raised against the linear no-threshold dose model. You'll note that it was not published in some 'quack journal', and draws its references from many other non-quack entities.

In addition you're assuming that changes in regulatory setpoints are purely based on proven safety effects, but that's not the case here. Indeed, regulatory changes happen frequently that are not based on safety (e.g. yellow light timings).

What is true is that if you assume, as most health physics societies and regulatory organization do, that radiation exposure should be kept ALARA ("as low as reasonably achievable") then you should reduce regulatory thresholds for no better reason than that it becomes possible to do at all.

In other words even if you find a 'safe' level below which you can't appreciably detect an increase in cancer risk, you'd still set the regulatory threshold far below that if you could (and keep dropping it as technology improves), because regulatory commissions are operating under the assumption that any exposure to radiation represents some additional risk of later cancer.

But it's important to keep in mind that it is an assumption, a convenient and conservative model that is used for ease of regulation, work planning, etc.

That doesn't mean the model is accurate, and the actual biological response to radiation of different types and exposures continues to remain debated at low levels of exposure.

After all, if what you claim is true then frequent flyers, air crew, and pilots should be dying at a ponderously higher rate of cancer incidence, as should residents of high-altitude areas who are exposed to higher cosmic ray flux, as should residents of Ramsar Iran who are exposed to high levels of background radiation from uranics in the soil and water.

But none of these people seem to be as effected by radiation as they should be. The question is why and yes, it's still a question.

It sounds like you're at least interested in the topic so I'd highly recommending researching further. For instance if you do so you would find out why mutation in a single cell is not at all the crisis you think it is, or even that surprising, because you would know how the body handles such cells (which occur all the time from multiple different sources).

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#176
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes we can procreate in the presence of some radiation: could you set a lower compliance bar for any pollutant? beneficial impacts are pretty much fringe science. FWIW, there has been experimental demonstration of minimal ionizing radiation causing mutation in a single cell. and most regulatory standards around the world continue to reduce 'acceptable limits'. I think the most recent example is the reduction in expos…

Radiation hormesis is not "fringe science". As only one example, consider http://www.jpands.org/vol13no3/cohen.pdf which is an overview from 2008 of some of the issues raised against the linear no-threshold dose model. You'll note that it was not published in some 'quack journal', and draws its references from many other non-quack entities. In addition you're assuming that changes in regulatory setpoints are purely b…

fair call re status of the hormesis theory. what I get from this is that the LNT theory holds more sway; regulators choose precautionary adherance to ALARA. Let's not ignore the obvious fact that there is a powerful industry tugging in the other direction ...

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think another parameter is the intergenerational teratogenic impacts: Radiation fades your genes.

I think another parameter is the long-lasting data corruption in the network. Unclean power fades the processor channel on your hard drive. EDIT: this is a sarcastic response to a comment that backs up an assertion with nonsense.

unlike some of the other risks to life listed, ionizing radiation can cause genetic damage. An impact that is passed on to future generations. I propose that's a factor for the special place the nuclear industry has in so many hearts. how's that nonsense?

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#178
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Radiation hormesis is not "fringe science". As only one example, consider http://www.jpands.org/vol13no3/cohen.pdf which is an overview from 2008 of some of the issues raised against the linear no-threshold dose model. You'll note that it was not published in some 'quack journal', and draws its references from many other non-quack entities. In addition you're assuming that changes in regulatory setpoints are purely b…

fair call re status of the hormesis theory. what I get from this is that the LNT theory holds more sway; regulators choose precautionary adherance to ALARA. Let's not ignore the obvious fact that there is a powerful industry tugging in the other direction ...

The nuclear industry honestly couldn't give one shit about whether regulators choose LNT/ALARA or "hormesis". If anything hormesis would make their work planning more difficult as then they'd possibly have to worry about ensuring their workers have enough exposure. ALARA is simple and easy and would remain used for work planning.

But either way, nuclear emits less radiation than coal, so if you're worried about public health effects then we're again in the situation that the power company doesn't really have to care either way; if they want less radiation overall they should build a nuke, if they believe in hormesis then coal would probably be preferred, but even assuming a Fukushima-style triple meltdown would not be a large public health disaster.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#179
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

fair call re status of the hormesis theory. what I get from this is that the LNT theory holds more sway; regulators choose precautionary adherance to ALARA. Let's not ignore the obvious fact that there is a powerful industry tugging in the other direction ...

The nuclear industry honestly couldn't give one shit about whether regulators choose LNT/ALARA or "hormesis". If anything hormesis would make their work planning more difficult as then they'd possibly have to worry about ensuring their workers have enough exposure. ALARA is simple and easy and would remain used for work planning. But either way, nuclear emits less radiation than coal, so if you're worried about publi…

they don't care? so you may say, my experience is that the industry includes some players who duck and weave to try to evade application of existing regulatory radiation limits.

and again the coal/nukes false dichotomy. the fact that this is fundamentally flawed thinking is highlighted by your conclusion that more nuclear plants reduce public radiation exposure.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#180
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

safe reactors certainly do exist : on paper. I'm old enough to remember chernobyl. at the time, we were assured it was a dodgy old design, and that they future models would be foolproof. Then fukushima, and we started hearing the same soothing stories of fantasy designs that could never cause such havoc. Ever since day one, this industry has over-promised and under-delivered. Remember "power too cheap to meter"? It's…

Fukushima (1971) predated Chernobyl (1977).

sure. whats to bet tho that the next reactor disaster uses the same unhelpful rationalisation, that better designs are just around the corner.
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