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Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

theage.com.au

141–150 of 188 posts

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#141
post #89
post #45

I have a personal theory, that I haven't really been able to confirm or deny. Here it is. After Hiroshima and during the cold war nuclear energy was associated with death and destruction. Hiroshima for obvious reasons, and the cold war because the population of the western world was constantly reminded how The Soviet Union had thousands of missiles with nuclear bombs pointing at us, ready to go. Western governments u…

What about nuclear waste though? You end up with some tons of radioactive material which you have to store in high-security underground facilities with the hope that in some time in the future humanity will find a way to dispose it in a safer way.

You can't make this argument in a vacuum. You need to compare it to the alternatives - most energy today is generated by burning fossil fuels, which might be the way to a global environmental apocalypse. An old mine containing dangerous chemicals seems pretty mild compared to depopulating Mexico.

Now obviously 100% clean means like wind and solar are preferred, but are those really viable at a global level?

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#142
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear waste is stored very, very deep and secure. I cannot imagine future humans having the technology to open these up, without knowing what is in there. Either we lose all of our knowledge and no soul will ever see that site, or we stay an advanced civilization and we are warned of the dangers before opening the nuclear waste facilities. Don't forget that uranium is found naturally in the ground, in geologically…

In Germany half is currently stored in an old salt mine which is at risk of water breaking in (in a region with seismic activity) ... the other half sits in bright daylight under tin roofs (not my definition of very very deep ... :)

Even worse - the risk is not water breaking in, since that's already happening. The risk is total collapse and contamination of the ground water: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asse_II_mine

So now the plan is to retrieve all the waste and store it - this time better at an estimated cost of at least 4 - 6 billion Euro.

The general problem I have with nuclear power is that it's all fine and dandy as long as everything goes as planned. If not, then everything goes boom in a big way. And where humans and profits are involved, plans tend not to involve all failure modes: The explosions in fukushima could have been avoided using catalytic recombinators which are for example mandatory in germany [1].

[1] http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaktorsicherheit#T.C3.B6pfer-K... (sorry, german)

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#143
post #45

I have a personal theory, that I haven't really been able to confirm or deny. Here it is. After Hiroshima and during the cold war nuclear energy was associated with death and destruction. Hiroshima for obvious reasons, and the cold war because the population of the western world was constantly reminded how The Soviet Union had thousands of missiles with nuclear bombs pointing at us, ready to go. Western governments u…

There is a lot of sense in this. From youth we've been trained that nuclear radiation is associated with cancer, Godzilla and mutant fish. My own irrational hate of Nuclear Fission plants comes from the hard learned lessons of Civilization 3; which teaches one to avoid building Nuclear plants due to the incredible rate of meltdowns and the subsequent massive death count and many turn loss of productive tiles. And global warming. Given all that, the level of trepidation around them should not come as a surprise. And if that isn't bad enough, fission plants are like airplanes. Crashes I mean.

People are afraid of Airplanes despite their incredible safety record because failure is spectacular and newsworthy. Consequence is concentrated and easily compartmentalized vs the more background event of the relatively near constant death from cars/coal (I wonder if this is leakage due to the brain reusing the smell cancellation modules on abstract frequencies like death rate). Similarly, the impact of meltdowns can be more viscerally felt in terms of relocation and ghost towning - even if they lead to little to no measured cancers or ill health (the worst case of incompetency in the form of Chernobyl is a fraction of the time integral health/death/radiative burden of coal plants to locals and workers). And to top it off, damage can be easily visualized in terms of three eyed fish, Godzilla and those ugly, ugly orange tiles. Shiver. Availability Heuristic at work.

At the same time I believe there is some cause for apprehension. It has to do with what the state current US infrastructure suggests on the real risks of a plant; failure of which might trigger an AI Winter type event at the worst possible time. The risk of Fission Plants is mainly in human competency and complacency. Will there be any corners cut in design and will operators become complacent due to extended runs of non-events? Will vital maintenance be done? I have not seen evidence that much of the world is ready for that kind of thing. The west is yes, mostly, but as the rest of the world comes online it would be preferable to have clean energy that doesn't jump to 50% chance of meltdown during revolts. So looking at alternative replacements at the same time as - instead of just focusing on -Nuclear is worthwhile.

A single large failure and human reaction to that kind of thing will lead to cascading moving away from Nuclear at just the time when it is most needed. It is thus in my opinion, better to do limited roll outs on newer incompetency resistant designs before any universal switching. Education on the nature of different types of radiation and their effects (focus on neutron vs bio, halflives vs waste), drastically reduced dangers to workers of nuclear vs coal plants, unloading the weighting on the bomb aspect of nuclear, probability theory, and shining a clarifying light on the stellar safety record of nuclear plants; will all go a long way towards solving the world's future energy problems.

As for me, while (I think) Civ 5 doesn't have that stupid penalty, the damage is already done. I will always recommend Solar and Hydro in place of Nuclear.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#144
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The alternative is fossil fuel waste You make it sounds as if there were no other alternative.

For baseload power? There effectively isn't. Renewable energy generation requires a substantial investment in energy storage systems if you don't have thermal power generation (such as nuclear or fossil-fueled plants), as having rolling blackouts just because the wind unexpectedly isn't blowing as hard is not good for business.

The thing is that nuclear isn't really good at this. Nuclear plants don't have much in the way of a throttle - they're just "on" or "complete shut-down and it will take substantial measures to start it up again". Fossil fuels or some sort of capacitive system (even just using the peak surpluses to pump water into a reservoir above a turbine) would do that task better.

The panicky nay-sayers of nuclear power are too obsessed with the risks of radiation, but there are a lot of other legitimate reasons that it might not have a place in our future. Uranium just isn't that plentiful, for example.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#145
post #45

I have a personal theory, that I haven't really been able to confirm or deny. Here it is. After Hiroshima and during the cold war nuclear energy was associated with death and destruction. Hiroshima for obvious reasons, and the cold war because the population of the western world was constantly reminded how The Soviet Union had thousands of missiles with nuclear bombs pointing at us, ready to go. Western governments u…

>It's the energy source that has the fewest deaths per MWH produced Source? I want to remind that the nuclear material needs to be mined somewhere. I never worked in a Uranium mine but it's probably not the healthiest job in the world. Then the material needs to be transported, transported a long way. During this way it gets enriched, used, cooled down. Maybe even re-enriched, used, some part get stuck in walls, pipe…

> NO insurance company in the world will insure a nuclear power plant.

This is hardly a meaningful claim. Insurance companies in the US won't write flood insurance policies, either. This doesn't mean that your house is very likely to get washed away in a flood. It means that the business is not profitable because no one wants to pay the premiums required to insure for the worst-case, nor do insurance companies want to sit on the piles of cash necessary to insure these sorts of events.

As a counter-point, hydroelectric power plants are also not insured for worst-case scenarios. And when hydroelectric dams fail, the results can be orders of magnitude worse than Nuclear meltdown. e.g.: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#146
post #135
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not feeling bad, in fact, it seems that I had two more weeks of getting used to than you, looking at when our accounts were created, :) The post to which I replied has been edited. Where it now says "I do agree" it used to say "However, I disagree with you on..." or something similar, and also in other places.

I haven't edited the post, I'd appreciate that you don't make false statements.

In that case, I apologize - I possibly misread "do agree" as "disagree" the first time, based on which I had a mental image of what the post said, and on a second, more careful reading it seemed changed.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#147
post #45

I have a personal theory, that I haven't really been able to confirm or deny. Here it is. After Hiroshima and during the cold war nuclear energy was associated with death and destruction. Hiroshima for obvious reasons, and the cold war because the population of the western world was constantly reminded how The Soviet Union had thousands of missiles with nuclear bombs pointing at us, ready to go. Western governments u…

I have a much simpler theory. Everytime an "event" occurs, nuclear scientists tell us, everything is ok, it is all handled, and then shortly thereafter, leaks are discovered to be worse than reported, handling of waste is done very poorly, or things just implode, as they did in Fukishama. http://www.king5.com/news/investigators/Hanford-no-ENRAF-nuc... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/asia/tepco-says-wate... St…

But the thing is, this is no worse than how "events" in other areas are handled. I don't trust reports of nuclear accidents any less than I trust reports of refinery or offshore oil-well or chemical plant or ... accidents.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#148
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The alternative is fossil fuel waste You make it sounds as if there were no other alternative.

For baseload power? There effectively isn't. Renewable energy generation requires a substantial investment in energy storage systems if you don't have thermal power generation (such as nuclear or fossil-fueled plants), as having rolling blackouts just because the wind unexpectedly isn't blowing as hard is not good for business.

Not to mention the fact that the power grid would fry under such variable power supply conditions.

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#149
post #144
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For baseload power? There effectively isn't. Renewable energy generation requires a substantial investment in energy storage systems if you don't have thermal power generation (such as nuclear or fossil-fueled plants), as having rolling blackouts just because the wind unexpectedly isn't blowing as hard is not good for business.

The thing is that nuclear isn't really good at this. Nuclear plants don't have much in the way of a throttle - they're just "on" or "complete shut-down and it will take substantial measures to start it up again". Fossil fuels or some sort of capacitive system (even just using the peak surpluses to pump water into a reservoir above a turbine) would do that task better. The panicky nay-sayers of nuclear power are too o…

> Nuclear plants don't have much in the way of a throttle - they're just "on" or "complete shut-down and it will take substantial measures to start it up again".

Well, this is exactly what we need. Power demand is fluctuating, but mostly averages out to something constant. It's easier to throw in a little buffering to compensate demand fluctuations than to wake up with half the power in the grid because it suddenly got cloudy. You'd have to store very large amounts of power, which is this "substantial investment in energy storage systems" GP was writing about.

> Uranium just isn't that plentiful, for example.

Here you are wrong.

http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml

Re: Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick

#150
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always love it when coal is used as a comparision. Because: Coal isn't the alternative, solar and wind are Furthermore: Nuclear energy has a fairly high CO2 output, if you count it all together. So this argument against coal is itself an argument against nuclear energy. Most importantly: We can't manage nuclear waste. There is just no feasible scenario which makes sure for future generations that the nuclear waste…

Solar and wind might be the alternative for powering your TV and AC. They will not power the advanced scientific and engineering projects of the future. For instance the Large Hadron Collider uses twice as much electricity in a year as the entire city of Geneva. It's possible to conceive of a physics experiment that uses orders of magnitude more. What if we discover that "warp drive" is possible, but takes enormous a…

Remember the episode on DS9 when the Ferengi travelled through time into the 1950s? They were even disgusted by those primitive humans destroying their own planet with radiation (their gadgets didn't work anymore because of this).
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