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The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

foreignpolicy.com

101–110 of 223 posts

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But these things are the province of speculation, not knowledge. Here's the opinion of the leader of the US military at the time. "It is my opinion that the use of this barbarous weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan. The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender because of the effective sea blockade and the successful bombing with conventional weapons."…

When I read these revisionist pieces, I often see the same phrase you quoted: "ready to surrender." If someone is "ready to surrender," what does that mean? Well I'll tell you what it certainly doesn't mean: It doesn't mean that they've _actually_ surrendered. What a lot of revisionist writings gloss over is that yes, certain parts of the Japanese leadership were "ready to surrender." But it is well documented that s…

When they are actively trying to surrender, then they're probably "Ready to surrender". The US wouldn't negotiate because the bombs were on the way.

What were the conditions? Because if they were "you help us rebuild" or "and we get a grill-cheese sandwich" then really they're not much. Plenty of peace treaties have taken place with conditions.

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#102
post #92

I find the article rather convincing: I want to play a related alterna-history game that takes the article as a given. Did the Soviet Union make a serious strategic error in declaring war against Japan when it did? Remember, we're taking it as a given that Japan surrendered to the Allies because of the Soviet Union. Moreover, it surrendered to the USA because it for very good reason preferred USA reconstruction to US…

"Did the Soviet Union make a serious strategic error in declaring war against Japan when it did?"

I've always wondered why American troops stopped at the Elbe and left Berlin to be captured by the Soviets.

Was there a deal? Soviets get Berlin in exchange for attacking Japan?

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But these things are the province of speculation, not knowledge. Here's the opinion of the leader of the US military at the time. "It is my opinion that the use of this barbarous weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan. The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender because of the effective sea blockade and the successful bombing with conventional weapons."…

When I read these revisionist pieces, I often see the same phrase you quoted: "ready to surrender." If someone is "ready to surrender," what does that mean? Well I'll tell you what it certainly doesn't mean: It doesn't mean that they've _actually_ surrendered. What a lot of revisionist writings gloss over is that yes, certain parts of the Japanese leadership were "ready to surrender." But it is well documented that s…

Yet until a credible leadership figure actually _offered_ unconditional surrender, it was going to be war as usual.

But it wasn’t. The A-bombs were quite unusual. They were extraordinary weapons, and would have required extraordinary justifications to use on the military, let alone on civilians.

(To the argument that it wasn’t possible to target the military apart from civilians: that’s exactly why nuclear weapons are so problematic.)

it deliberately ignores both the wide diversity of opinion which existed within Japanese leadership

An alternate interpretation is to not take it alone, and to see it as deliberately summarizing the wide diversity of opinion which was already going through the complex process that you rightly point out. News of Nagasaki’s destruction interrupted a meeting by the Japanese Supreme War Council, not so much about whether to surrender as about how. I don’t think it’s facile at all to call this, in context, “ready to surrender”.

The US did not know the details of the meeting, of course, but they chose to spend 70,000 human lives on an assumption with no particular justification, while under no special immediate military threat – at that point, Japan was relatively contained, and the fear was that if left alone it would reach out again in a matter of months or decades, not weeks. The threat was diplomatic: that Japan might surrender to the USSR. That seems worth presenting as something other than the rueful conduct of justified, proportional warfare as an absolute last resort.

As an American, sometimes I look at other countries that haven’t come to terms with major war crimes – the Armenian Genocide, for example, or indeed Imperial Japan’s crimes in China – and I shake my head.

Then I remember that the US has the A-bombs on our record, and we’ve made it almost 70 years now without admitting as a nation (meaning in standard textbooks, in mainstream entertainment, etc.) that these were, by any sensible definition, crimes against humanity of the highest gravity.

There’s this objection people sometimes raise: that it’s easy to say these things if you weren’t there, if you weren’t under the pressures of command, knowing your nation’s people were dying by the day. That’s true. I don’t know what that was like. It’s easy for me to moralize from a distance. But that argument isn’t actually justifying the act of the A-bombings, merely moderating judgment on the people who did it. Saying they didn’t really know what they were doing is very different from it was a good idea.

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#104

I love UFO stories, and I love history, and I love pseudo-science. Hell, I even like counter-factuals. What if Lee had won at Gettysburg? What if Patton had actually commanded the Normandy invasion? And so forth. But these things are the province of speculation, not knowledge. Think for a minute about what this essay is asking "What if action X did not end the war in the Pacific?" Well dang, Action X could be just ab…

When you have the fact that the Japanese had already sent delegations to negotiate a surrender, that everyone who wrote at the time either knew that Japan was trying to surrender or was confident that they would surrender as soon as Russia entered, and that the US Strategic Bombing Survey also concluded that the bombs were unnecessary, we're getting outside the realm of your standard counter-factual here.

It's much more like saying 'well, this body was stabbed through the heart and then burned, but they almost certainly would have been dead even without the burning' than 'some complex series of actions occurred and we have no idea which of them was actually relevant in the resulting outcome'.

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But these things are the province of speculation, not knowledge. Here's the opinion of the leader of the US military at the time. "It is my opinion that the use of this barbarous weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan. The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender because of the effective sea blockade and the successful bombing with conventional weapons."…

When I read these revisionist pieces, I often see the same phrase you quoted: "ready to surrender." If someone is "ready to surrender," what does that mean? Well I'll tell you what it certainly doesn't mean: It doesn't mean that they've _actually_ surrendered. What a lot of revisionist writings gloss over is that yes, certain parts of the Japanese leadership were "ready to surrender." But it is well documented that s…

You also have to factor in that long before then, the Japanese had developed a culture of political assassination, see for example the end of this section: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoroku_Yamamoto#1920s_and_1930.... That substantially raised the barrier to getting to the "ready to surrender" point of the group that was making the decisions. And that decision did not meet with universal acclaim, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrender_of_Japan#Attempted_mi...

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#107

The challenge I have with this, and pretty much all 'alternate history' foreign policy discussions, is that they try to argue an indefinite (Japan would have surrendered if we hadn't done this) against a definite (We bombed them and they surrendered immediately). There isn't any way to prove that stuff of course, and you can tweak the indefinite to be whatever you want to overcome the definite. So in some ways it is…

The further we get away from the events of those times the easier it is to second guess those decisions and not be challenged by someone with first hand knowledge of the events. Great observation, summarizes one of my main quarrels with people trying to reimagine history.

The weird thing about this is that I've read excerpts from Trumans diary and I've read the result of the US Strategic Bombing Survey that was done at the time and both either say outright or strongly imply that the atomic bombing was not necessary to achieve the surrender of Japan.

This is stuff written either immediately before the bombing or shortly afterwards. It's only now that people have had years of believing a narrative that we're exactly in that situation where stating that the atomic bombs were necessary is a view that can go unchallenged.

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#108

The author touches on this, but I've always been fascinated with how little awareness there is in the USA about Japanese atrocities (like the Rape of Nanking and Unit 731) compared to the well-known and oft-discussed atrocities of the Nazis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanking_Massacre http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

Some of us are familiar with it. Contemporary Americans certainly were (obviously not Unit 731, but Nanking, various atrocities revealed by the liberation of the Philippines, etc.), and the fact that the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere was by the end of the war killing something like 250,000 of the occupied peoples per month was one of the many inputs into the desire to finish the war quickly by any means necessary.

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#109
Can you imagine if we had not dropped the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki? Without the horrific evidence of those bombings, we would have inevitably dropped a warhead in the future. Except 7 years later, we would have dropped an H Bomb instead, with 1,000 times the power. The other side would probably have warheads by then, and would answer back. I think we were very lucky that history proceeded as it did.

Re: The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan

#110
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I read these revisionist pieces, I often see the same phrase you quoted: "ready to surrender." If someone is "ready to surrender," what does that mean? Well I'll tell you what it certainly doesn't mean: It doesn't mean that they've _actually_ surrendered. What a lot of revisionist writings gloss over is that yes, certain parts of the Japanese leadership were "ready to surrender." But it is well documented that s…

Yet until a credible leadership figure actually _offered_ unconditional surrender, it was going to be war as usual. But it wasn’t. The A-bombs were quite unusual. They were extraordinary weapons, and would have required extraordinary justifications to use on the military, let alone on civilians. (To the argument that it wasn’t possible to target the military apart from civilians: that’s exactly why nuclear weapons ar…

"The A-bombs were quite unusual. They were extraordinary weapons, and would have required extraordinary justifications to use on the military, let alone on civilians."

Extraordinarily efficient, one plane, one bomb, one city, but we'd already methodically bombed pretty much every other city (along with Kyoto for political reasons, the A-bomb targets and their alternates were reserved), with e.g. the firebombing of Tokyo killing a conservative 100,000.

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