Brain work may be going the way of manual work
economist.com
Brain work may be going the way of manual work
1–10 of 75 posts
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#2No they will not.
The amount of effort required to shrink real knowledge worker jobs is astronomical compared to simply driving a car. After the singularity, fine. But even that will require a massive, massive amount of work. The low hanging fruit for increasing knowledge work output is in Gattaca not AI.
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#3"Moore’s law—that the computing power available for a given price doubles about every 18 months—continues to apply. "
Then why are Intel desktop CPU's not getting any better the last 3 years?
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#4No they will not. The amount of effort required to shrink real knowledge worker jobs is astronomical compared to simply driving a car. After the singularity, fine. But even that will require a massive, massive amount of work. The low hanging fruit for increasing knowledge work output is in Gattaca not AI.
I guess the point where an AI can replace a programmer is the point where a technological singularity begins. Because at that point the AI is capable of improving its own code which would lead to a 'runaway reaction'.
And if you're in a post-singularity world you don't really have to worry about jobs anymore. So I guess being a programmer is pretty future proof ;)
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#5No they will not. The amount of effort required to shrink real knowledge worker jobs is astronomical compared to simply driving a car. After the singularity, fine. But even that will require a massive, massive amount of work. The low hanging fruit for increasing knowledge work output is in Gattaca not AI.
Sadly, I couldn't read the article due to the paywall. But I agree with you. I don't think AI will replace knowledge workers. A couple of decades ago, people used to say that workers in factories would disappear as well. That never happened, at least not completely.
The costs are always a problem. If AI will ever really replace us, is still a mystery for the future. Because for it to work, it would have to be cost effective.
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#6"Moore’s law—that the computing power available for a given price doubles about every 18 months—continues to apply. " Then why are Intel desktop CPU's not getting any better the last 3 years?
Because the article, like just about damn everyone else, completely misunderstands Moore's law, which actually observes that the number of transistors we can fit on a chip doubles every two years. Transistor count does not directly correlate to performance.
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#7No they will not. The amount of effort required to shrink real knowledge worker jobs is astronomical compared to simply driving a car. After the singularity, fine. But even that will require a massive, massive amount of work. The low hanging fruit for increasing knowledge work output is in Gattaca not AI.
Gattaca, and computer assisted knowledge work. Let's use humans for what humans are good at and computers for what computers are good at. Let's also work on the interface between those two systems.
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#8"Moore’s law—that the computing power available for a given price doubles about every 18 months—continues to apply. " Then why are Intel desktop CPU's not getting any better the last 3 years?
you misread computing power as CPU clock speed
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#9"Moore’s law—that the computing power available for a given price doubles about every 18 months—continues to apply. " Then why are Intel desktop CPU's not getting any better the last 3 years?
It's wrong. It's not the computer power that's doubling, it's the number of transistors. Big difference.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law
Re: Brain work may be going the way of manual work
#10No they will not. The amount of effort required to shrink real knowledge worker jobs is astronomical compared to simply driving a car. After the singularity, fine. But even that will require a massive, massive amount of work. The low hanging fruit for increasing knowledge work output is in Gattaca not AI.
Sadly, I couldn't read the article due to the paywall. But I agree with you. I don't think AI will replace knowledge workers. A couple of decades ago, people used to say that workers in factories would disappear as well. That never happened, at least not completely. The costs are always a problem. If AI will ever really replace us, is still a mystery for the future. Because for it to work, it would have to be cost ef…
> Sadly, I couldn't read the article due to the paywall.
Just open it in Incognito Mode. The Economist uses a simple, cookie-based porous paywall.