11–20 of 77 posts
> In the end Tumblr won’t see a bigger exit because they didn’t prove they could monetize their massive traffic before time (and money) ran out. Instagram had $0 in revenue when they were acquired for $1 billion in cash/stock. The price paid in that instance was for potential , and it's likely to be the same in the case of Tumblr.
There are a two major faults with the author's analysis which lead me to believe this post should not be relied on. 1. Advertising rates are far below the author's $10-20 CPM estimate for dashboard advertising; $10-20 is for legitimately premium advertising such as high-end audiences, wrapping a website, etc. Dashboard / banner ads will fetch $0.5-3 CPM the way Tumblr is running them. 2. The "valuation" formula of 10…
Recent break out of CPM by country for FB :
http://www.rudibedy.com/blog/facebook-advertising-cpc-cpm-pe...
There are a two major faults with the author's analysis which lead me to believe this post should not be relied on. 1. Advertising rates are far below the author's $10-20 CPM estimate for dashboard advertising; $10-20 is for legitimately premium advertising such as high-end audiences, wrapping a website, etc. Dashboard / banner ads will fetch $0.5-3 CPM the way Tumblr is running them. 2. The "valuation" formula of 10…
That CPM struck me as crazy high too and tumblr content is much closer to "social" than it is to premium media which would put the CPM a lot closer to $0.50 - 1.00 at scale. Recent break out of CPM by country for FB : http://www.rudibedy.com/blog/facebook-advertising-cpc-cpm-pe...
I thought I had caveated/explained that in the post but I can clarify it there too.
There are a two major faults with the author's analysis which lead me to believe this post should not be relied on. 1. Advertising rates are far below the author's $10-20 CPM estimate for dashboard advertising; $10-20 is for legitimately premium advertising such as high-end audiences, wrapping a website, etc. Dashboard / banner ads will fetch $0.5-3 CPM the way Tumblr is running them. 2. The "valuation" formula of 10…
Plus, the P/S of 10x looks pulled out of ye' olde arse. Google's trailing P/S is 5.6x and Yahoo's is similar. AOL is 1.31x. What media company that might be a "comp" trades for 10x.
> In the end Tumblr won’t see a bigger exit because they didn’t prove they could monetize their massive traffic before time (and money) ran out. Instagram had $0 in revenue when they were acquired for $1 billion in cash/stock. The price paid in that instance was for potential , and it's likely to be the same in the case of Tumblr.
We should probably avoid using Instagram in examples. It's such an insane outlier that it doesn't make sense to compare anything to it.
There are a two major faults with the author's analysis which lead me to believe this post should not be relied on. 1. Advertising rates are far below the author's $10-20 CPM estimate for dashboard advertising; $10-20 is for legitimately premium advertising such as high-end audiences, wrapping a website, etc. Dashboard / banner ads will fetch $0.5-3 CPM the way Tumblr is running them. 2. The "valuation" formula of 10…
Exactly. What makes it worse is that Tumblr has lots of soft core porn and other unsavory content which brand advertisers don't want to touch with a 10 foot pole. Plus, the P/S of 10x looks pulled out of ye' olde arse. Google's trailing P/S is 5.6x and Yahoo's is similar. AOL is 1.31x. What media company that might be a "comp" trades for 10x.
Huffington Post, a media company, was purchased by AOL for $315M @ $30M rev. That's 10x. Stop trolling.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the diffs are Instagram hasn't attempted to monetize so their potential is unknown; while Tumblr already did and it doesn't look very bright.
Also, mobile-based photosharing was deemed a "major threat" to Facebook's existence and relevance, whereas Tumblr is a much less mobile-centric and is deemed more of an "asset acquisition" and doesn't carry the urgency that Instagram carried for FB.
Buying Tumblr though? It's not so much of a preventive measure. It would be more for the integration potential and userbase than anything else and I think most people are saying Tumblr lacks potential as a standalone service. However, if it could help augment the Yahoo brand then it could potentially be worth it for Yahoo.
I think there are multiple angles to look at, and we shouldn't focus too much on the price as much as the motivations behind such a deal and what the outcome could potentially be.
Perhaps Yahoo could build services around Tumblr? Or maybe they'd elect to integrate Tumblr into Yahoo itself. Or perhaps use it add to their portfolio of companies to strengthen the Yahoo brand. I could also see a Yahoo ecosystem consisting of a tag-team of Flickr, Tumblr, and their News aggregations. So the question remains; what is their strategic motivation for Tumblr?
> In the end Tumblr won’t see a bigger exit because they didn’t prove they could monetize their massive traffic before time (and money) ran out. Instagram had $0 in revenue when they were acquired for $1 billion in cash/stock. The price paid in that instance was for potential , and it's likely to be the same in the case of Tumblr.
I think the diffs are Instagram hasn't attempted to monetize so their potential is unknown; while Tumblr already did and it doesn't look very bright.
Heck, other monetization attempts have been poor ever since too....soo....
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the diffs are Instagram hasn't attempted to monetize so their potential is unknown; while Tumblr already did and it doesn't look very bright.
Also, mobile-based photosharing was deemed a "major threat" to Facebook's existence and relevance, whereas Tumblr is a much less mobile-centric and is deemed more of an "asset acquisition" and doesn't carry the urgency that Instagram carried for FB.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. What makes it worse is that Tumblr has lots of soft core porn and other unsavory content which brand advertisers don't want to touch with a 10 foot pole. Plus, the P/S of 10x looks pulled out of ye' olde arse. Google's trailing P/S is 5.6x and Yahoo's is similar. AOL is 1.31x. What media company that might be a "comp" trades for 10x.
HuffPo, and I said it was steep not what people should expect to get. Huffington Post, a media company, was purchased by AOL for $315M @ $30M rev. That's 10x. Stop trolling.
And you said it's high but still used it in your headline cuz you thought would have a higher chance of getting to the top of HN.
I guess pursuit of provocative > properly researched.