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Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

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Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#61

Post by hkmurakami »

I wonder why they're deciding to offer an All-Cash offer rather than some part of the offer being in Stock. Yahoo's stock has done well lately and should be fairly attractive to Tumblr investors and management. Given the size of the potential acquisition, there aren't that many alternative suitors, so Yahoo should have pretty good leverage here, especially since Tumblr has gotten heat over the last few years regarding their lack of a business model.

Maybe Yahoo is afraid that offering say ~$400MM in stock would dilute the existing shares and irritate existing shareholders?

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#62

Post by tptacek »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #56
ghshephard wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

David Karp has 25% of Tumblr [1], and makes it clear, that to start off with - it really was just David and Marco. "...Marco Arment, Karp’s first and, for a long time, only employee at Tumblr." http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2013/01/02/tumblr-...

"Employee" Wow, that's a kick in the balls.

I don't follow. Also: Marco calls himself an "employee" as well.

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#63

Post by pyre »

rhizome wrote: post #44
seldo wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tumblr is ad inventory for Yahoo. Specifically, mobile ad inventory -- most of Tumblr's revenue comes from mobile ads. Mobile is a huge area of growth that Yahoo is anxious to stay on top of. They don't need Tumblr's audience to go anywhere other than Tumblr, and if they're smart they won't even try.

Just redirect the money hose to their own bucket. :)

It's a bit more than that. Tumblr will decline if they just view it as a turn-key solution.

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#64

Post by staunch »

parfe wrote: post #49
staunch wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course. They could sell it tomorrow for a nice multiple. They bought it for like $15 million and could easily sell it for $100+ million.

Conde Nast hasn't owned Reddit since 2011.

Technically, no, just their parent company.

"In September 2011, Reddit was split from Condé Nast, and now operates as a subsidiary of Condé Nast's parent company, Advance Publications."

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#65

Post by skinnymuch »

minikomi wrote: post #29

With tumblr as a curation hub and Flickr as a pool of images, maybe yahoo will next aquire a video pool (Vimeo?), a sound / music pool (soundcloud?) ... Having a small network of creative sites each with their own communities, tied by a single hub would be pretty cool.

Completely minor point but Iac has owned Vimeo for so long, I doubt they'd want to ever sell it to a company like Yahoo.

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#66

Post by yuhong »

jcampbell1 wrote: post #58
mbell wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the (possible) acquisition means a lot more for Yahoo's ability to attract talent than it does for the business bottom line. Probably the same thing, but only in the longer term. If they acquire tumblr and shut it down, or make changes that result in a receding of the user base, then they are unlikely to acquire talent. If they acquire tumblr and improve it, they will improve they position in the talent acqui…

I think it would be smart for Yahoo to do things to attract talent, but Tumblr is probably the wrong company. Tumblr is adored by people with zero tech talent and is based in New York* . That being said, your comment has made me conflicted. MM has made a ton of insane acquisitions, but the net result is that I would actually now consider Yahoo as an employer. I suppose a series of decisions that I find stupid leading…

The acquisitions are not the only thing Marissa did.

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#67

Post by ghshephard »

tptacek wrote: post #62
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Employee" Wow, that's a kick in the balls.

I don't follow. Also: Marco calls himself an "employee" as well.

I think the suggestion is that Marco probably didn't have a sizable equity chunk - I.E. the 70/30 split might be generous - and it very well might have been something closer to 95/5.

I've listened to pretty much all his podcasts, and while Marco is pretty wide open when it comes to financials (in one memorable episode, he detailed pretty much every line-item costs associated with instapaper, and he's been even more open with "The Magazine" - discussing all of the revenue and cost elements), I don't ever recall him discussing his equity stake in tumblr, though, he did mention that he's been chatting with David recently...

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#68

Post by onedev »

hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #47
jessedhillon wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If acquiring millions of users is so worthless, why don't we all have 100k+ monthly page views and fantastic engagement numbers? Or, put another way: put a dollar value on a speculative Yahoo effort to attract a user base the size and demographic composition of tumblr's. Don't forget to price in the risk of failure.

The point is, since when eyeballs started being worth so much? Isn't it proven already that users are like butterflies in the hand (you can't squeeze them, but let loose they fly away)? Myspace is there to prove that being king today doesn't say s * about your position in ten years. This year Facebook lost 1.4 million users, first deficit since launch.

How much of that 1.4 million is due to people dying?

Global churn affects your userbase when you have a userbase as insanely massive as Facebook's.

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#69

Post by Steko »

hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #47
jessedhillon wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If acquiring millions of users is so worthless, why don't we all have 100k+ monthly page views and fantastic engagement numbers? Or, put another way: put a dollar value on a speculative Yahoo effort to attract a user base the size and demographic composition of tumblr's. Don't forget to price in the risk of failure.

The point is, since when eyeballs started being worth so much? Isn't it proven already that users are like butterflies in the hand (you can't squeeze them, but let loose they fly away)? Myspace is there to prove that being king today doesn't say s * about your position in ten years. This year Facebook lost 1.4 million users, first deficit since launch.

"This year Facebook lost 1.4 million users"

http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/01/facebook-earnings-graphs/

Just to add some context, overall up 20%+ first quarter over prior year Q1. Granted flat in the first world and I could believe a small net loss but I don't see it in these numbers.

Re: Yahoo Board to Meet Sunday to Consider $1.1B, All-Cash Deal for Tumblr

#70

Post by onedev »

minikomi wrote: post #29

With tumblr as a curation hub and Flickr as a pool of images, maybe yahoo will next aquire a video pool (Vimeo?), a sound / music pool (soundcloud?) ... Having a small network of creative sites each with their own communities, tied by a single hub would be pretty cool.

I agree with you, I think Yahoo gets it. They have a vision, and they're actively rebuilding their tech portfolio.

Flickr and Tumblr are great assets to have.

Whether it turns out great for them or not though, we have yet to see. It's certainly interesting to watch though.

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