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I honestly don't. (You are very, very far off the correct methodology.)
But maybe this is a good place, I guess.
http://www.oakton.edu/user/4/pboisver/AABaseballMath.html
I am not trying to be a jerk. But ask yourself: If it were that trivial, why wouldn't it be a snap to crush online sportsbetting?
My bet is that your model is no better than (weighted) chance to predict the next game. Just run the model on the years before 2012 and you'll see what I mean.
i.e. the author regrouped the data to come up with the same result
Rather than waiting for data from future games, you should backtest on old data and see how it performs ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backtesting ). You might also be interested in checking out the book The Signal and The Noise by Nate Silver (He runs the FiveThirtyEight political/data blog that notably predicted last year's election results with great accuracy.)
More relevant--before he did statistical analysis of elections, he was a leading figure in sabermetrics, the statistical analysis of baseball. His program is still one of the best.
PECOTA is alright, but not really his anymore. cwyers took it over at BPro. It's also tough to say if it's one of the best for any number of statistically boring reasons (read Phil Birnbaum's blog for more info).
As someone who has written 10k+ loc on simulators, markov chaining, and done tons of analysis on baseball projections... I don't know where to start. I honestly don't. (You are very, very far off the correct methodology.) But maybe this is a good place, I guess. http://www.oakton.edu/user/4/pboisver/AABaseballMath.html I am not trying to be a jerk. But ask yourself: If it were that trivial, why wouldn't it be a snap…
Isn't this an example of the gambler's fallacy, that previous outcomes impact future outcomes?
I understand where you're coming from. My friend's statistics teacher said that if a flipped coin results in 5 heads, it doesn't owe you a tails – this seems to support the gambler's fallacy. Though looking at something like running: say I run the first mile in a race in 7 minutes. Odds are the next mile will be a bit slower given I'm bad at pacing myself and I'm now tired. This is an extreme example, but I've been t…
- check bovada.lv for the line
- guess that as the winner
- fin.
(crowdsource ftw)
Streaks from last year's team? Seriously?
To start with, you can't 'predict' result of a single game. You can have some advantage (or more likely, disadvantage) over the quality of the betting like a bookie gives you.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
More relevant--before he did statistical analysis of elections, he was a leading figure in sabermetrics, the statistical analysis of baseball. His program is still one of the best.
And before that, he was an excellent online gambler. Or was it during that time? ;) PECOTA is alright, but not really his anymore. cwyers took it over at BPro. It's also tough to say if it's one of the best for any number of statistically boring reasons (read Phil Birnbaum's blog for more info).
Birnbaum is one of the best bloggers on advanced stuff. Tango's blog is the best period as anyone good participating in the "open source" movement so to speak is there pr shows up when they write good stuff. Until you're aware of the work to date, you will be spinning in circles with awful biased errors.
google tangotiger and then read his book. baseball prediction has been done to death by the sabermetrics community but this guy is one of the absolute best.
Isn't this an example of the gambler's fallacy, that previous outcomes impact future outcomes?
If game results were independent, yes. But lots of things in baseball aren't independent: teams play the same opponent repeatedly in short series, runs of home or away series occur, pitchers rotate, players get injured, teams may slack when overperforming or intensify their efforts to avoid extended losing streaks, etc. Most of all: baseballers are fairly superstitious. They believe in streaks, lucky rituals, jinxes,…