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Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

socialroulette.net

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Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#131

Post by altrego99 »

Alex3917 wrote: post #114
WA wrote: post #13

I once read that the chance of Russian Roulette is NOT 1:6 but more like 1:600, since you play with one bullet and the weight of the bullet makes it relatively unlikely that the bullet stops next to the top position in the barrel when you spin it. Don't know if this is true but in the end, it doesn't matter for this stupid game.

I love how people have so much trouble understanding the Monty Hall 'paradox', but when you give them basically the exact same problem in the form of Russian roulette then suddenly it becomes trivially intuitive that you REALLY want to spin in between turns.

How do you map Monty Hall to Russian Roulette? I choose a slot, you choose an _empty_ slot - should I spin or not?

Or I choose a slot, you choose the bullet... no that doesn't make sense either.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#132

Post by Samuel_Michon »

btipling wrote: post #41

The testmonials on that site are complete fabrications. Gawker never said "Social Roulette just rewrote the rules for online gaming." nor has it ever mentioned Social Roulette and the Gruber quote also does not exist, only someone tweeted it at him. Testimonials that are lies are shameful and dishonest.

Gruber is well-known for not having a Facebook account, so I think the joke is obvious.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#133

Post by StavrosK »

ownagefool wrote: post #85
leddt wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I can see, the opponent never spins. So I guess if you survive without spinning, they are more likely to lose on the next attempt.

He span for me, but only when we were on the last two bullets, which was about the same time I was spinning.

I always spun, and I'd say he spun around 50% of the time. We took around 10 turns, too.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#134

Post by tomjen3 »

altrego99 wrote: post #131
Alex3917 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how people have so much trouble understanding the Monty Hall 'paradox', but when you give them basically the exact same problem in the form of Russian roulette then suddenly it becomes trivially intuitive that you REALLY want to spin in between turns.

How do you map Monty Hall to Russian Roulette? I choose a slot, you choose an _empty_ slot - should I spin or not? Or I choose a slot, you choose the bullet... no that doesn't make sense either.

You spin, fire, no bullet.

I now have 1/5 of a chance that there is a bullet in the next chamber, if I spin I have 1/6th. The odds gets more and more favourable towards spinning, the more people fire the gun.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#135

Post by tomjen3 »

hfsktr wrote: post #57
gambiting wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

I believe he meant that he first person has 1/6 (at least or most...idk) but assuming the next person goes there is one less chamber each time. 1/5, 1/4, etc. until you get to 1/1 at least. There would have to be some change between rounds to change that part.

Actually the chance of the 6th person getting the bullet is initially no greater than the chance that the nth person gets the bullet, since you have to take into account that the gun fires before the first person gets the gun, which happens to be 5/6.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#136

Post by JonnieCache »

yen223 wrote: post #116
onemorepassword wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is pretty obvious to most people. That doesn't make you stupid, but you may find that you encounter similar situations in life, and it's something you may want to be aware of before you start throwing around big words like "lies", "shameful" and "dishonest" where such reactions are completely misplaced.

"It is pretty obvious to most people." I really doubt most people know who Gawker, Bruce Sterling, John Gruber or FaltyDL are, which makes it doubtful that most people are in on the joke.

FaltyDL makes (great[0]) dance music. His inclusion is most odd.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oI4A8xtwpGQ

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#137

Post by tomjen3 »

StavrosK wrote: post #28
jrabone wrote: post #23

It's the http://www.arcadebliss.com/game/russian-roulette.htm of its decade...

Why would someone not spin the revolver?

Because it is cheating. The chance of the nth person getting the revolver (with no spin) is 1 - (n-1)/6, so the chance of the nth person dying is 1 - (n - 1) / 6 times the chance of a bullet in the chamber which is n/6.

You spin and the last one becomes n/6, which means that the game is biased in favor of later starters.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#138

Post by btipling »

Samuel_Michon wrote: post #132
btipling wrote: post #41

The testmonials on that site are complete fabrications. Gawker never said "Social Roulette just rewrote the rules for online gaming." nor has it ever mentioned Social Roulette and the Gruber quote also does not exist, only someone tweeted it at him. Testimonials that are lies are shameful and dishonest.

Gruber is well-known for not having a Facebook account, so I think the joke is obvious.

I read daring fireball pretty often and I didn't know this, so no, it's not obvious.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#139

Post by relix »

orangethirty wrote: post #27
SandB0x wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI "choice" is the name of a function in the random module: from random import choice if choice(range(6)): print "Try again tomorrow." else: print "Today is not your lucky day."

No one liner? Im disappointed. Did you read the commnt at the end?

    puts "Bam" if rand(6).zero?

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#140

Post by StavrosK »

tomjen3 wrote: post #137
StavrosK wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would someone not spin the revolver?

Because it is cheating. The chance of the nth person getting the revolver (with no spin) is 1 - (n-1)/6, so the chance of the nth person dying is 1 - (n - 1) / 6 times the chance of a bullet in the chamber which is n/6. You spin and the last one becomes n/6, which means that the game is biased in favor of later starters.

Yeah, but then the sixth person has a 100% chance of dying, I wouldn't call that biased in their favor.

It's fairer if everyone just always spins.

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