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Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

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Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#91
post #29

The last several months in Silicon Valley I do not remember the last time I went outside for more than 5 minutes and not seen a Tesla. I noticed about a week ago I stopped caring, much as I do not especially remark on noticing a Honda or a Ford. That's a good sign, though likely very geographically localized.

I'm in Atlanta and get gawked at pretty much every time I go out. While we've got a very active group of local folks on Facebook, they're still relatively rare to see around here, even in the heart of upscale Buckhead.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#92
post #10

Meh, Teslas are boring status mobiles now. If you like your electric cars to be interesting and exciting. Order an Arcimoto [1] instead. 1. http://www.arcimoto.com/

You could at least have recommended a http://litmotors.com/c1/

Unlike the Arcimoto, the C1 seems to understand that if you're going to be a motorcycle, you should be able to lean into turns.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#93
post #71
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've driven one. They're fun, they tilt to the curve. And they're more practical for a single city-dweller. Also, whoever downvoted me... can we keep this civil please? That HACKER news is becoming a place where people downvote mentions of upstart disruptive competitors in an attempt to curry the favor of well funded established companies. Is just kind of, sad.

I think people just disagree with your comment...

And that's awesome if they can talk about it like intelligent people, but drive by downvotes are more the domain of some other news site.

Of course, it's probably because I mentioned status... which is the third rail of Bay Area niceness; I mean it's an absolute meritocracy; right?

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up 26% after-hours almost certainly qualifies as a 'Tsunami of Hurt.' Some quick math for fun's sake: If the TechCrunch[1] article is still accurate, Musk owns 28.4% of TSLA. His paper-worth on this ownership this morning was $1.8B. If things stabilize at $70/share, his paper-worth tomorrow morning will be $2.3B. A notional profit of $500 million in 24 hours isn't too shabby. [1] http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/28/tesl…

Not sure I understand what you're referring to. 0.284 * $7.5 billion = $2.13 billion His gain, assuming a 20% jump, is about $300 million. At market close TSLA's market cap was $6.39 billion.

Weird, I must've had a different Google Finance tab open at the time? Thanks for the correction.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#95
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon Musk several days ago: EDIT: My mistake, this was said much longer ago (September 2012). I just read it recently. Thanks to batbomb for pointing this out. My apologies. “It’s doing pretty well actually given that we’re such a huge short position. In fact I think the short position may be as high as one can actually go. They literally hit the ceiling on the short position. The shorts are in it to the hills. I thi…

That's several months ago. If it was a few days ago he'd probably be hearing from the SEC soon.

Why, is there a quiet period just before the release of earnings?

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#96

I've never seen the fairness of after hours trading. The majority of people don't have access to it (that I've spoken to), yet that is when you see some major moves (up or down) in a stock. Congrats to Tesla for turning their first profit!

That's only because companies tend to release market sensitive information outside of trading hours. If you do it within trading hours, a trading halt must be in place. In which case, the major moves up or down of a stock is still outside of trading hours. Price changes are discrete, not continuous.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#97
post #88

A good article to help understand the massive afterhours movement: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/autos-tesla-idUSL2... High-Level Summary: There was a ton of short-selling interest on TSLA (due to expectations of a big earnings miss). Almost 27% of the 115mm shares outstanding are currently being borrowed by short sellers. TSLA has more short interest by percentage than 98% of US stocks. Everyone was real…

I purchased a fair number of TSLA when they IPO'd, for a bit lower than the actual IPO price of $17. A little over a year ago, my brokerage offered to borrow my shares at 4% annual interest (paid on a monthly basis). I was told that I would retain the ability to trade the stock at any time, but I gave up my shareholder voting rights while the stock was "loaned" out. I had never heard of that happening to small indivi…

Just to offer perspective, the interest to borrow shares of Tesla as of 2nd May was 46.10%. It was 85% as of 26th March.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#98
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they even in production? I know if I write a check I can get a Tesla.

I've driven one. They're fun, they tilt to the curve. And they're more practical for a single city-dweller. Also, whoever downvoted me... can we keep this civil please? That HACKER news is becoming a place where people downvote mentions of upstart disruptive competitors in an attempt to curry the favor of well funded established companies. Is just kind of, sad.

>>upstart disruptive competitors

I downvoted you exactly for this reason: you seem to be under the delusion that Arcimoto is (or will be) a Tesla competitor.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#99
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's several months ago. If it was a few days ago he'd probably be hearing from the SEC soon.

Why, is there a quiet period just before the release of earnings?

I wonder, INAL but if he says something like that publicly then it's not insider trading to act on it, I would think anyway.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#100
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSLA options are also super weird and sketchy; around the expiration of the long-dated calls in January each year, there seems to be some magical push to drive the stock price lower for 1-2 days; then after the expiration, when I've been pushed out of the money, the price rebounds substantially. I gave up on TSLA options and am sticking to being long the stock.

You don't need to wait until expiry to sell. There is a lot to be said for options if you use them carefully. Yes, risk is higher with high leverage and a narrow portfolio. But returns can be also. I think the line about risk adjusted returns being higher in index funds is 3 parts inexperienced investors trying to pick stocks without doing their homework and 7 parts experienced investors trying to convince inexperien…

Without quantifying the risks involved with your trading strategies, it is impossible to say whether you are beating the risk-adjusted returns of an index fund. Additionally, I am pretty sure index funds, even without risk adjustments, have been proven to be better investments in the long term than any actively managed strategy. And this holds regardless of the experience of the investors. There are always going to be a few exceptions to the rule, but most of the people getting rich in wall street are doing so because they are taking a cut of other peoples money (management fees), not because they are genius investors.

Also, with actively managed strategies, it only takes one or two bad bets to wipe out years of gains, and due to natural biases, individual investors tend to under-report/weight losses and over-report/weight the gains. As such, we always tend to hear how other investors are making a killing on a certain stock or trade, but we rarely hear from the losers, which distorts our perceptions of risk and returns (so far, I have seen a handful of people talk about their Tesla stock holdings on this thread, but I have yet to see a single person talk about haw bad they are getting cleaned out because they shorted the stock).

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