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Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

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Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#21
post #8

The drop is all the more remarkable considering that there are at least 168,000,000 more guns in circulation in the US now than when gun homicide peaked in 1993.[1] [1]: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2013_sta...

Possible cause and effect? That's one of the claims of the folks who promote private gun ownership.

Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#22
post #8

The drop is all the more remarkable considering that there are at least 168,000,000 more guns in circulation in the US now than when gun homicide peaked in 1993.[1] [1]: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2013_sta...

There's also 58,500,000 more human beings in the US than when gun homicide peaked in 1993.

If you're going to talk about gun inflation, it helps to also mention human inflation.

Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#23
post #8

The drop is all the more remarkable considering that there are at least 168,000,000 more guns in circulation in the US now than when gun homicide peaked in 1993.[1] [1]: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2013_sta...

To keep the numbers relative, US Population:

1993: 257,746,103

2012: 315,809,000

= 58,062,897 more people since 1993.

So 2.8x as many guns than population increase.

Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#24
post #2

Also ALL violent crime is down 50% since 1993. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ooa98FHuaU0 Fear is a powerful weapon. The media and politicians know this and selectively choose which crime stats to promote. Emotional outrage > rational analysis when it comes to selling pageviews and building political support. That is nothing new. Fortunately the internet is helping to temper that imbalance.

> selectively choose which crime stats to promote For example, FBI homicide stats last year show 350 killed by rifles of any kind, assault or otherwise, while 750 killed by hammers. I keep waiting for the groundswell of public support for hammer control.

I've seen estimates of death by auto-erotic asphyxiation to be in the 500-1,000 per year in the US. Whatever will they ban to stop that?

Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#25
post #14

In a totally and completely unrelated fact, the rate of gun ownership is also down 30% since the 1980's. It's almost as if the two may have a relationship, but that certainly cannot be the case because the NRA has spent a jillion dollars telling me otherwise!

> It's almost as if the two may have a relationship

Negative correlation would be my guess[1]. Where do I get my NRA check for telling you that?

[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=10129

Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#26
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"Violent non-fatal crime victimization Why are you comparing violent non-fatal crime , to gun homicides ?

He answered your question in his second line, " . . . gun crime's falling significantly lower than crime in general." Yes, he's comparing violent non-fatal crime to gun homicides. He's making a comparison of gun homicides to general crime, and the rate of change.

His second line started with "So". Meaning that it was derived from the fact in the first line.

The second line doesn't follow from the first as it is implied.

You can't get "gun crime is falling more slowly than crime in general" from that statistic, because "general crime" includes homicides which were removed from that statistic. It is entirely possible that if you add in homicides that overall crime is decreasing faster.

Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#27
post #8

The drop is all the more remarkable considering that there are at least 168,000,000 more guns in circulation in the US now than when gun homicide peaked in 1993.[1] [1]: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2013_sta...

Possible cause and effect? That's one of the claims of the folks who promote private gun ownership.

While I'm a gun supporter, I think the decline in overall crime has more to do with the reduction in environmental lead: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-li...

Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#29
post #2

Also ALL violent crime is down 50% since 1993. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ooa98FHuaU0 Fear is a powerful weapon. The media and politicians know this and selectively choose which crime stats to promote. Emotional outrage > rational analysis when it comes to selling pageviews and building political support. That is nothing new. Fortunately the internet is helping to temper that imbalance.

> selectively choose which crime stats to promote For example, FBI homicide stats last year show 350 killed by rifles of any kind, assault or otherwise, while 750 killed by hammers. I keep waiting for the groundswell of public support for hammer control.

It's tough to kill at a distance with a hammer, unlike a rifle. I suppose that's why people fear rifles more, but honestly I think the hammer killer is more frightening. If someone decides to randomly put a bullet through my head from half a mile away, I'll never even hear it coming. But if someone decides to crush my skull with a hammer, I'm going to be around long enough to know that I'm going to die in a really stupid and wasteful manner.

Re: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

#30
post #2

Also ALL violent crime is down 50% since 1993. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ooa98FHuaU0 Fear is a powerful weapon. The media and politicians know this and selectively choose which crime stats to promote. Emotional outrage > rational analysis when it comes to selling pageviews and building political support. That is nothing new. Fortunately the internet is helping to temper that imbalance.

> selectively choose which crime stats to promote For example, FBI homicide stats last year show 350 killed by rifles of any kind, assault or otherwise, while 750 killed by hammers. I keep waiting for the groundswell of public support for hammer control.

750 were killed by hammers or clubs which includes any blunt force attack (vase, bat, golf club, etc. I am assuming that you're accurately quoting a number, though last I saw that number was more in the 450 range). Secondly every home has numerous objects that qualify as "clubs", many of them serving valid, functional roles (for instance to hammer, or to hit balls, etc). In many households a firearm has one single purpose, which is to kill or maim (given that hunting is rare, though I suppose that's a weird exception I make given that hunting is ultimately about killing, food pyramid and all).

So that's the first gross misrepresentation that you've made.

The second is that few argue for "rifle control", but instead want "gun control". Those guns that kill 30,000+ Americans per year (whether homicide, suicide, or accidental).

I'm a hunter (albeit here in Canada), but just as I despise misrepresentation of facts one way, it doesn't justify gross misrepresentation the other way.

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