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Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

blogs.law.harvard.edu

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Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#61

Post by tjr »

jshen wrote: post #47
solistice wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was puzzeled over that number too, as putting up a site like that, even if you are buying the servers from scratch and hire a first rate web dev, shouldn't cost more than 10-20k$. I went through to the linked artice, and appeareantly, most of it went for consultants. I mean there are consultants out there that are worth their money, and I bet the site is kai-zen optimized very nicely, even though I can't tell, but…

"if you are buying the servers from scratch and hire a first rate web dev, shouldn't cost more than 10-20k$" this number is just as absurd as the $327 million.

At $125/hour and $5000 for servers, $10-20k could be spent up in a couple weeks or so. That seems pretty reasonable, and certainly not as absurd as $327 million, which would amount to about 1200 years of FTE effort.

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#62

Post by solistice »

willholloway wrote: post #21

The author of this would have his answer if he understood the IQ floor necessary to be a good engineer, access to computers at a young age and willingness to troubleshoot obscure problems is relatively rare in the population. There are far less high IQ individuals in the world than the world needs right now. We can teach coding to young people, but as of now we can't reliably increase IQ. We have studies that prove a…

Isn't Silicon Valled allready hooked on a constant supply of aderall and modafil? Now add Hydergine, Piracetam and Deprenyl into school lunches, and you've got your super children.

Or hack whatever is broken with the educational systems around the world. I'm still in school (technical highschool, programming focus), and none of my friends that is worth his salt in programming is good in school, and that puzzles me because they keep telling us that they're desperate for good coders. D is one of the best js coders I personally know, and he raves about it all the time. He dropped out of the part of the school that I go to (which would lead up to college), and likely won't stay in cs due to that. B is one of the best php coders I know. He's also a D student. A's good too, but had a 2.0 GPA as well.

There's a fair share of good potential programmers around (even though my observation might be somewhat biased), but many of them won't ever get into college. And how do you face HR without a degree? Go to hell kid, we want credentials.

I'm pretty sure you don't need more leads, you need better conversion, or else we're all going into marketing.

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#63

Post by djKianoosh »

jshen wrote: post #42
jskulski wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see your point but I think "forgo" is a strong word. I have made and will continue to make a great salary with great benefits and be able to choose companies based on cultural fit. That's something that I would never give up for an extra 50k a year.

For an extra $100k a year? I think a lot of programmers don't realize how much some other programmers get paid once you factor in other incentives outside of salary.

some benefits are hard to quantify and/or equate to $. For example, each person would value commute time differently, but how many people actually compute the cost of a longer commute beyond just gas and time? What about its effect on your health and mental state? Sometimes we neglect/forget to take these things into account, but sometimes it's just hard to factor them in altogether...

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#64

Post by willholloway »

jh73 wrote: post #57
willholloway wrote: post #21

The author of this would have his answer if he understood the IQ floor necessary to be a good engineer, access to computers at a young age and willingness to troubleshoot obscure problems is relatively rare in the population. There are far less high IQ individuals in the world than the world needs right now. We can teach coding to young people, but as of now we can't reliably increase IQ. We have studies that prove a…

As a scientist, even mentioning IQ is a good way to lose your career in the US. It's frustrating because the general population are turning to off-label drugs and supplements. 30% of college students are taking some sort of ADHD drugs for performance enhancement and even more when including nootropics.

The gigantic demand for stimulants and nootropics is a good indicator that people are feeling the strain of the information age and reaching for answers.

We need far better answers. The situation is only going to intensify as more low end jobs are automated.

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#65

Post by thedufer »

pekk wrote: post #8
coldcode wrote: post #2

Why isn't there a glut of baseball players who hit .408 in the major leagues? Because it's a rare person who can hit a ball thrown at nearly 100 MPH 40% of the time. Software engineers are common but people who deliver quality product after product is a rare bird. Programming at a high level is not as easy as this author seems to think.

Every company seems to think it needs programmers who hit .408 in the major leagues. Maybe the problem is that they think making money is a zero-sum game like baseball, so that they have to have the "best team" and not just a team which can build what's necessary to make some money (not the most money, that would also be a game).

You're assuming that 2 people hitting .200 are equivalent to one hitting .400. This isn't true in baseball, nor in software development.

The competition is because the person hitting .400 is worth at least an order of magnitude more than a person hitting .200. The same discrepancy is not found in salaries, so you obviously prefer to hire from the top.

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#66

Post by siavosh »

paulbaumgart wrote: post #18
tempi35 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why programming isn't a commodity skill? Or will become such commodity soon? Programming is like a house builder. Yes there are better and more experienced builders, but most of them can build a house top to bottom with no problem.

Programming is not like building houses. The computers on which the software runs are the "house builders"-- the parts of the system doing the repetitive work. Programmers are the architects and civil engineers who are tasked with inventing new types of houses every time.

Not that I disagree with you, but have you looked at a typical architect's salary and job prospects?

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#67

Post by solistice »

gte910h wrote: post #33
solistice wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was puzzeled over that number too, as putting up a site like that, even if you are buying the servers from scratch and hire a first rate web dev, shouldn't cost more than 10-20k$. I went through to the linked artice, and appeareantly, most of it went for consultants. I mean there are consultants out there that are worth their money, and I bet the site is kai-zen optimized very nicely, even though I can't tell, but…

I am also guessing there is a backend component that isn't on yet? Additionally, gov't is traditionally entirely unwilling to agree to strict requirements, so require vast overbidding

i guess there is a backend there that isn't accounted for yet. I went with 5k for web design and 15k for 3 pretty average servers (using jeff atwoods specs as a general number, where he comes out to $2,750 for raw server cost without allocation), but in retrospect, 3 average servers could be somewhat small for a site like that.

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#68

Post by paulbaumgart »

siavosh wrote: post #66
paulbaumgart wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Programming is not like building houses. The computers on which the software runs are the "house builders"-- the parts of the system doing the repetitive work. Programmers are the architects and civil engineers who are tasked with inventing new types of houses every time.

Not that I disagree with you, but have you looked at a typical architect's salary and job prospects?

It seems there's a lot more demand for different types of software than there is for different types of houses.

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#69

Post by solistice »

arocks wrote: post #27
tempi35 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why programming isn't a commodity skill? Or will become such commodity soon? Programming is like a house builder. Yes there are better and more experienced builders, but most of them can build a house top to bottom with no problem.

> Programming is like a house builder. Sorry, but that analogy is completely wrong. I would recommend reading Fred Brook's "The Mythical Man-Month" (among many other books on software estimation) to understand why. He argues that unlike activities involving physical mediums like house building, computer programming creates with an intractable medium. You would be surprised, in the field of programming, that many so-c…

Unless you're building a 20x20 cm shack, which is about what most intro into programming courses aim at, and the level where some people simply stay. Or in the words of hacker school "completely useless and destined for dev/null".

Re: Why isn’t there a glut of good software engineers?

#70

Post by xSwag »

willholloway wrote: post #21

The author of this would have his answer if he understood the IQ floor necessary to be a good engineer, access to computers at a young age and willingness to troubleshoot obscure problems is relatively rare in the population. There are far less high IQ individuals in the world than the world needs right now. We can teach coding to young people, but as of now we can't reliably increase IQ. We have studies that prove a…

>We can teach coding to young people, but as of now we can't reliably increase IQ.

IQ is relative. If everybody's intelligence went up 10 points, they would all still have the same IQ

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