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The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

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Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#111
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I tend to equate STEM with 'profitable future'." There's a large number of extremely wealthy and extremely powerful people working publicly as hard as they can against that belief, and the government has been purchased to be on their side. Very few things unite everyone in power both in .biz and .gov quite as well as the destruction of STEM as a middle class or better lifestyle. My advice is be very careful when goi…

That's quite a claim there--would you mind elaborating on your reasoning? Perhaps it's just due to my current existence in a very productive city, but STEM (and vocational training) seem to be both very much in demand and rewarded.

Alright enough enough I apologize for the somewhat curt answer above stop downvoting me. I'll be more verbose and more polite.

Estimate a ratio of "we need more STEM" vs "we need less STEM" in .biz, .gov, mainstream media, etc. Does anyone other than internal "tech" sites ever discuss how the pool is too big and getting too large and maybe we need licensing and unionization and apprenticeships or some way to shrink it? Lets say maybe 100 to 1 ratio? Are there any paid PR groups or lobbying groups at all on the side of the STEM worker? Any? Not even one? How bout on the other side? Oh, dozens you say working to increase the supply and drop the cost (aka our salary).

A continuous stream of one unified voice from .gov, .biz, and .edu that we need more STEM grads, more STEM immigrants, more STEM is what "we" need or else. Yet... talk to people who aren't paid PR shills and its all poor working conditions, more grads than jobs, ageism, underemployment/overeducation. Sure you'll get a few quisling types who think that supporting those trying to destroy them will somehow personally save them, although historically that never seems to work out. And there's maybe 3 or 4 cities with a high cost of living and a shortage of techies... at least right now... at least supposedly. A tiny subfield with real demand as opposed to PR demand like petroleum engineering has explosive salary growth rates... supposedly we're told the demand is even higher for code slingers, well, OK, show me the increasing salaries and the unemployment rate approaching zero. Oh that's not happening nationwide without lies, damned lies, and statistics?

Well someones lying then, or at least not telling the whole truth. Do you think the guy who stands to make a higher profit could be lying to you? Nah, Management and PR are transparent and clean as glass... How about the .gov guy purchased by the .biz guy, has a politician ever lied to you? Hmm. How bout that .edu guy who's salary more or less depends on convincing kids to enter his field, does he have any conflict of interest, or at best well intentioned delusion? Yet a VERY few lone voices in the wilderness, with no economic interest (or not much anyway) suggest maybe the emperor really does have no clothes, but they must be making it up because their reward for it is ... nothing at all? A better life for their kids? +5 of HN karma? Seems a pretty small reward at best for a lot of work.

So that's my interpretation of the players on the field. There's the completely unorganized STEM workers, and absolutely everyone else united against them with a common cause, identical PR campaign, for fairly rational similar economic reasons. I wonder which side will win?

Now compare our response to other fields involving labor forces and import/export and immigration and .gov policies. We seem to be failing ourselves in the PR war compared to ... well compared to pretty much every other field of human endeavor other than maybe the pot growers, congressmen, and sex workers. And there's a substantial overlap there at that. Actually they probably do a better job of self promotion than we do.

Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#112
post #3

A quote from the article also applies to the recent fad of promoting STEM education in K-12 etc. "Roughly twice as many American undergraduates earn degrees in science, technology, engineering, and math disciplines than go on to work in those fields." Maybe if my kids grade school gets their way, we can boost that to four times, or even more. Those numbers are almost as bad as recent law school grad stats. Needless t…

I can't begin to understand how you could make a comparison between a STEM career and music, art, or professional sports. I have worked, directly, for decades as both a professional musician and as a user interface designer, a web programmer, a graphic designer, and an internet marketer. I am a far more competent musician than any of the other skills. My resume in music is in the top 1/100th of a percent. I have been doing music far longer, and with more devotion.

But I can far more easily pay my rent doing any of the other things listed. I can make mediocre user interfaces all day long and cover my mortgage with a week's salary. While doing web marketing on the side. And learn python in my spare time. If I want a world class musician to come to my studio and play, I can probably get them to do it as a favor, or for a small fee. If I want someone to do some coding for me, no amount of money seems to be sufficient. It makes my brain explode when people in computer science try to compare their lifestyle to that of a musician's. I have lived both. They are completely, utterly, unlike each other.

Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#113
post #42

This article makes a big mistake in conflating software development with STEM in general. It shows a stock photo of a guy looking through a microsope (btw why is he looking through the lens if the microscope is plugged into a monitor? Seems redundant...), when the focus of the article is Microsoft, Google, and Facebook wanting to raise the H1-B visa cap so they can bring in more cheap coders from India. Is there a sh…

It's obvious companies want to increase H1-B for hiring top talent at lower salaries.

An amazing programmer in India or China probably makes 1/10th of what he would make in America, but they don't know this. They'll be recruited to America on H1-B but they won't contend their salary, they'll be happy making 2x or 3x their previous salary, even if it's 45k/year. Their ability to negotiate salary will be further hindered by a strong possibility of poor-English skills, therefore inability to communicate well.

Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#114
post #82
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strange as it sounds, fraud prosecution. If a software dev lies or the product is buggy nothing really happens to anyone, but at least in theory a fraudulent or incompetent accountant could go to jail, and that's not happening in Outsourceland, so fundamentally at least some of it has to be done locally. Most of the lowest level of data entry and paper shuffling has long since been disposed of via automation, so alre…

Well, I think this is shortsighted. H1-B is 'bad' because it's increasing the number of workers competing for the same pool of STEM jobs. Steering your kids towards accounting increases the number of workers competing for the same pool of accounting jobs. Except, I think STEM associates a lot more with 'growth industry' than accounting.

I would disagree with the first paragraph in that a large number of .gov, .biz, and .edu personnel have a unified voice encouraging kids out of all other fields and into STEM. So the pool of grads is smaller in accounting therefore its a better job market for them to enter. My two kids are not going to tip the demographics such that accounting is now flooded.

I do agree with the second paragraph in that accounting is more employable. If there's a web 2.0 crash or something, a tax accountant at a dotcom can more or less transfer into tax accountant job at an oil company. On the other hand a NAS storage engineer is pretty screwed via pigeonholing if he wants to get hired as a petroleum engineer. Much larger job pool in accounting.

Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#115
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

kneejerk reaction: like what? I haven't thought a lot about this, but I tend to equate STEM with 'profitable future'. What other industries/disciplines are you thinking of?

if my hypothetical children needed guidance, I'd probably advice on accounting. Huge industry that ain't going anywhere, lots of work at the low end, lots of pay at the high end, still applicable if you change job later, generally respected culturally.

I think it's likely that me or my programmer children are going to obsolete your accountant children long before they reach retirement age.

Not entirely, of course. But enough that one software-equipped accountant will do the work of 100 of today's accountants, utterly destroying the bulk of the industry.

Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#116
The important takeaway that is lost/neglected both in the article and the comments is that the bulk of H1-B visa is allotted to cheap body shop entry level developers. A lot of fussing over high end Google / Microsoft positions obscures this truth that is evident from perusing the actual H1-B statistics. I've posted here before, but within a short commute from my home in Arizona, I can tally thousands of jobs displaced by the combination of H1-B / offshore (and this is not an either/or but a both/and strategy). Does anyone contest that this is countervailing effect on new vocational entries?

And the truth that median/average salaries have not raised significantly exposes that indeed, to call it a shortage is myth. I suppose it depends upon the local market but here I see developer positions (PHP web development) being filled at $7.50 - $15 per hour, hourly rates bested by those not even possessing a college degree. Now, before somebody spouts off some PHP bashing and that those job slots merit only that pay level, consider that those old school / mainframe programming jobs that were supplanted by NIV / offshore coders paid 2-3X this mark for a less comprehensive skill set.

Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#117
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's quite a claim there--would you mind elaborating on your reasoning? Perhaps it's just due to my current existence in a very productive city, but STEM (and vocational training) seem to be both very much in demand and rewarded.

Alright enough enough I apologize for the somewhat curt answer above stop downvoting me. I'll be more verbose and more polite. Estimate a ratio of "we need more STEM" vs "we need less STEM" in .biz, .gov, mainstream media, etc. Does anyone other than internal "tech" sites ever discuss how the pool is too big and getting too large and maybe we need licensing and unionization and apprenticeships or some way to shrink i…

I am torn between

-the desire to agree with your point in principle: yes, there is probably a conspiracy of some sort to push these wages down and ignore the reality that these careers can have a huge downside, your wages will at best stagnate, and the number of college grads increase each year

-the desire to respond to your point in practice: it seems generally hard to hire computer programmers, they seem to make quite a bit, even if they aren't super-exceptional, and the wages and unemployment statistics for these sorts of jobs seems better than most other career paths

Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#118
I can summarize the problem with the data in one sentence: a degree in computer science has almost no correlation with your usefulness as a programmer. So a glut of people with degrees does not imply that there is no skill shortage.

Really good programmers, like musicians, almost invariably start practicing as children. By high school, they know enough to be dangerous. By college, they're operating on a qualitatively different level than their peers who are trying programming for the first time. (Hence the widely-reported bimodal distribution of student performance in introductory college CS classes.)

Can someone starting at age 18 still become a great programmer? Almost certainly. But they need to put in the vast amount of times and intense effort that it takes, and that gets harder to accomodate the older you get.

Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#119
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things that make me suspect this information is anecdotal rather than from a hiring manager (though I could be wrong): 1) I left MSFT around 2006, but the offers I made to (admittedly, mostly blue chip) candidates in 2002-2004 were closer to 80k and not even at the top end of the L59 level band. I'm not sure those early year numbers are quite spot on. 2) The initial offers are set for the middle of the L59 compen…

> I left MSFT around 2006 The company changed significantly since then. Bill left. There was a layoff (well, a couple, but the first was a black swan nonetheless). There is a new review system and new rules about comp. It's not the same place you remember. I really liked the MSFT around 2006, too :)

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Re: The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage

#120

I don't doubt that companies are trying to get a piece of legislation passed that allows them to pay employees less. Increasing margins, that's what companies do. I do take issue with the idea that the talent shortage is a myth. I work for a company willing to pay a six figure starting salary plus good benefits in what's supposed to be a recession and we cannot fill our headcount. My team has been looking to fill 2 h…

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