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A Local Revolution?

paulgraham.com

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Re: A Local Revolution?

#21

Post by javert »

tjic wrote: post #3

> There are already signs that startups may not spread particularly well. The spread of startups seems to be proceeding slower than the spread of the Industrial Revolution Government was much smaller at the time of the Industrial Revolution. The theory of "regulatory capture" says that government is responsive to those firms that are affected by government regulation and have the money to buy favorable legislation. T…

I agree.

To build on this comment, I disagree with pg's statement that startups have and will spread somewhat randomly. The biggest defining factor is having a (more) free market in a given place (inc. lower taxes and a /proper/ legal system).

In fact, that's largely why northern Europe had the Industrial Revolution and why most startups are in the US today. Because the US seems to be becoming more statist, that could definitely change.

Re: A Local Revolution?

#22

Post by pedalpete »

At the beginning, there is always a 'center', but that does not negate the influence of the other districts. I suspect that PG has gotten caught up in a bit of the valley hype.

There are many more counterexamples. Microsoft (does it not count because it was pre-internet?) was a start-up outside the valley at one point. MySpace didn't start out in the valley. So why skype? because a valley company overpaid significantly for them? (I love skype though, i just don't think they are the best counterexample).

Detroit thought it had all the 'talent' and 'knowledge' in building cars, and then got it handed to them on both sides, cheaper and better from Asia, more expensive luxurious and better from Europe.

No question the valley has investors, and very talented ones at that. As costs for internet start-ups decreases, amazing open-source technologies like hadoop continue to spread, and talent realizes they can excel anywhere, why would the valley continue to as the center?

What will be the draw to keep people in the valley? Angel financing can now accomplish what only VC could a few years ago, and that continues to change. Ideas are not limited to the valley, technology is not limited, for many start-ups their are no physical goods, and when there are, those are created overseas.

So, though Silicon Valley may be the center today, what will make it the center tomorrow?

Re: A Local Revolution?

#23

Post by pedalpete »

dbul wrote: post #2

I appreciate the caution expressed in the essay; that it is unclear both that an event is on its way and that location is necessarily decided. No doubt SV is the capital of startups, but I still think in the world of startups it is slightly different than Hollywood or Wall Street because you can do it with little money or connections. The distribution of startups across the world remains to be seen, but I agree often…

You must have posted this while I was putting out my rant below. I agree, though I'm confused by your last 'desktop software' comment.

Re: A Local Revolution?

#24

Post by javert »

prospero wrote: post #11
tjic wrote: post #3

> There are already signs that startups may not spread particularly well. The spread of startups seems to be proceeding slower than the spread of the Industrial Revolution Government was much smaller at the time of the Industrial Revolution. The theory of "regulatory capture" says that government is responsive to those firms that are affected by government regulation and have the money to buy favorable legislation. T…

Why is it bad that in order to automatically generate binding legal documents, someone involved needs to be educated in the subtleties of legal language? A walking, talking lawyer should be personally responsible for the quality of the documents being generated. If there's no such person, you're putting the onus of validation on the client, which I think misses the entire point. In most of these cases, it's not the g…

The lesson to learn from your example is: don't work for someone without getting paid, unless you /really/ trust them.

Not: we need the government to be our nanny. That results in all kinds of really bad side effects, including those illustrated by the person who started this thread.

Re: A Local Revolution?

#25

Post by tjic »

prospero wrote: post #11
tjic wrote: post #3

> There are already signs that startups may not spread particularly well. The spread of startups seems to be proceeding slower than the spread of the Industrial Revolution Government was much smaller at the time of the Industrial Revolution. The theory of "regulatory capture" says that government is responsive to those firms that are affected by government regulation and have the money to buy favorable legislation. T…

Why is it bad that in order to automatically generate binding legal documents, someone involved needs to be educated in the subtleties of legal language? A walking, talking lawyer should be personally responsible for the quality of the documents being generated. If there's no such person, you're putting the onus of validation on the client, which I think misses the entire point. In most of these cases, it's not the g…

> Why is it bad that in order to automatically generate binding legal documents, someone involved needs to be educated in the subtleties of legal language?

I wouldn't put up a huge stink if the law was "you must pass the bar exam".

However, the law is "you must attend 3 years of law school".

> These laws do not exist solely to frustrate you

Agreed. They exist to decrease the supply of lawyers, thus increasing the price that lawyers can demand.

Frustrating me is just a side effect.

Re: A Local Revolution?

#26

Post by tjic »

ChristianPerry wrote: post #4

I felt the effect of being in Silicon Valley the moment I moved out here. The area is not only teeming with endless talent, energy, and enthusiasm, but (and this is important) we have an entire culture that makes this talent, energy, and enthusiasm possible in the first place. When I moved to San Francisco from Chicago, I felt the change immediately. People simply get me out here. They understand why I'm doing what I…

Fascinating.

This it the first thing that I've ever read that made me think that moving from MA to CA might be a win for me, personally.

Re: A Local Revolution?

#27

Post by davidw »

mechanical_fish wrote: post #16
tjic wrote: post #3

> There are already signs that startups may not spread particularly well. The spread of startups seems to be proceeding slower than the spread of the Industrial Revolution Government was much smaller at the time of the Industrial Revolution. The theory of "regulatory capture" says that government is responsive to those firms that are affected by government regulation and have the money to buy favorable legislation. T…

Government was much smaller at the time of the Industrial Revolution. Is this true? Is it really such an open-and-shut case? In some senses it is obviously true: There were a lot fewer people, a lot fewer filing cabinets and a lot fewer regulations. A lot of the tools needed for our big modern system -- hygiene, communications, literacy -- just weren't there yet. There were essentially no worker protections in the ea…

> Is it really such an open-and-shut case?

No, but a reasonable percentage of those convinced that "it's all the government's fault" are going to continue to see it that way no matter what (and get offended when that gets pointed out, apparently). Just like other people think that more government/laws/rules is always the answer. For that matter, I'm pretty convinced of my "radically moderate" views which are somewhere around The Economist's.

Which is why these sorts of discussions rarely go anywhere, even over a beer, to say nothing of short, sharp answers on internet forums.

Re: A Local Revolution?

#28

Post by raintrees »

I am keeping my eyes on Boulder, CO. From what I hear, good university, good business climate, willing to take initiatives (Smart Grid being rolled out as we type).

Now if they only had ocean access... :)

Re: A Local Revolution?

#29

Post by acegopher »

All industries have "centers":

finance -- New York, Boston automobiles -- Detroit entertainment -- LA etc.

There are natural reasons for that: new companies are often founded by execs who think they can do better than the big companies they leave, infrastructure gets built up that benefits all in that given industry, talent begins to congregate in those areas, etc.

I think that different types of startups might be congregated around different geographic locales: biomedical startups would likely flourish near big research hospitals, etc. Service industry startups likely aren't clustered: restaurants, etc.

With technology startups, yes there is a natural clustering in Silicon Valley and Boston, but I think that's because tech startups are fairly new. I hear lots of good things coming out of Chicago, Austin, Columbus, Minneapolis, and elsewhere. It's definitely spreading.

Re: A Local Revolution?

#30

Post by prospero »

dantheman wrote: post #20
prospero wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it bad that in order to automatically generate binding legal documents, someone involved needs to be educated in the subtleties of legal language? A walking, talking lawyer should be personally responsible for the quality of the documents being generated. If there's no such person, you're putting the onus of validation on the client, which I think misses the entire point. In most of these cases, it's not the g…

>>In most of these cases, it's not the government protecting existing companies, it's the government protecting the naive population. You won't fire someone after six months of unpaid labor, but someone else will. Your expert system might create air-tight contracts, but someone else will cut corners. This untrue, throughout history companies get laws to make upstarts more difficult. There is no reason you need to go…

Do you want to back up that assertion? I'm not saying regulatory capture doesn't exist, I'm just saying it's not the primary driving force behind legislation. You don't get to just say I'm wrong and make vague references to historical trends.

Unless a company already has lawyers on staff, they have no way of determining whether a legal expert system is a good product or not. For that reason, it cannot be a substitute for a living, breathing lawyer. It could certainly be a tool for lawyers, and streamline the hell out of most legal processes, but to treat it as something more is to give up on any lowest common denominator for legal advice. And while this would certainly harm lawyers, it would also harm a great many other people.

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