Even if you believe in the "growth rate leveling off as women are educated" thing, it still means in 30 years the world's population is going to be more concentrated in countries and cultures which today lag the most in virtually everything I like. Even within the US, few of the people I respect in tech have children (or want children), and then they do, it's 0-2. I'd far rather live in a world with 10b Elon Musks, w…
No Population Bomb
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Re: No Population Bomb
#42Even if you believe in the "growth rate leveling off as women are educated" thing, it still means in 30 years the world's population is going to be more concentrated in countries and cultures which today lag the most in virtually everything I like. Even within the US, few of the people I respect in tech have children (or want children), and then they do, it's 0-2. I'd far rather live in a world with 10b Elon Musks, w…
There probably are thousands (tens of, hundreds of?) Elon Musks already in the world, it's just Elon Musk was one of the few to also be lucky enough to become a billionaire as well.
And plenty of people who got rich (not usually billionaires, but certainly local warlords, etc.) who were purely extractive and lowered quality of life for humanity as a whole. Patent trolls. Dudes running jihadi operations in Zabul. Corrupt politicians. etc.
There are probably some people who could be a lot more productive than they are (the "Einstein in a rural Chinese rice paddy" example), but that's decreasingly likely thanks to the Internet and more open political/economic systems.
Re: No Population Bomb
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
We have enough uranium mined to last us about 1 or 2 thousands year. Now, with energy we can do things like desalinate water and make fertilizer. The only reason we don't do more nuclear power now is because there are cheaper options.
The argument is not that we will suddenly be unable to desalinate water and so forth, it's that the price will rise to put more people into starvation. Claiming that all that will happen is the price (for energy, food, water, soil, maintaining biodiversity, etc) will rise is exactly the problem.
If we have cheap non-renewable resources, they allow us to live a much better quality of life than we would otherwise. If a barrel of oil comes out of the ground with 5 minutes of human effort, and then lets us fly from SFO to NYC, that's one level of awesomeness. If we burn up all the easy oil and the barrel of oil requires an hour of human effort to bring out of the ground, we're worse off.
Technology helps (maybe we can drill more efficiently, and maybe we can burn the oil more efficiently, and maybe we can find a good substitute for oil), but
If we had a certain economic surplus due to high quality natural resources being available, then having more people means we need to use lower-quality marginal sources. Plus, with time, we use up the high quality natural resources.
More productive people should help us improve technology as well, vs. just providing more total labor. On the other hand, if population increases to the point where surplus is reduced, we're less likely to invest in education or other investments which improve the value of human capital, focusing instead on subsistence.
Re: No Population Bomb
#44I wonder if the lower frequency in nation-state warfare is an effect of increasing education levels of females?
Prior to WWII, US foreign policy was one of isolationism, where the United States largely ignored other nations politics and conflicts. This policy is very cost effective as long as war is avoidable. Unfortunately, neither WWI or WWII were, and both were massively costly. In the wake of WWII isolationism was abandondoned, in part because the United States was the only nation with nuclear arms. The United States decided to take an active role in stabilization, largely through the use of nuclear deterents to prevent interstate conflict between major powers, and smaller, more frequent "stablization" conflicts.
Evidence for this is first seen less than three years after WWII ended, with the Berlin blockade, where the Soviet Union attempted to force the west into giving up control of Berlin by blocking supply access. This led to the delivery of 2,236,406 tons of supplies over 278,228 flights in eleven months (the Berlin airlift), which was enabled directly by the United States threat of Nuclear retaliation against the soviets. The United States publicly moved B-29 bombers to Britain to discourage the Soviet Union from interfering with the airlift. Had this deterent not existed, it's entirely possible that the situation would have escelated.
Less than five years after WWII ended, with the outbreak of the Korean war, the pattern is reinforced. Before the start of the war, the United States produced 120 MK-III "Fat Man" nuclear weapons yielding 18-49 Kt, and started production of MK-4 1-30 Kt bombs, of which it produced 550 by May 1951. Interestingly, all of the Mk-III's were retired in 1950, and the MK-4's were retired in 1953 because the pace of development was so fast. The US deployed additional B-29's to Britain, with bombs, to discourage the Soviet Union from entering the Korean War. When the Chinese entered the war, MacArthur intended to deploy nuclear weapons against the Chinese, in part to distrupt supply lines with radioactive fallout, and planned to destroy China until it surrendered. MacArthur also made clear that he intended to use nuclear weapons against China if they crossed the 38th parallel, and this was communicated to them. MacArthur was relieved in part because of these plans, and his belief that the power to order the use of nuclear weapons was his, and not the President's.
Ridgway, MacArthur's replacement, was authorized to use nuclear weapons in the event of major air attacks originating from outside Korea, and china was directly notified of such. The United States entered the war pre-emptively, then used the threat of nuclear weapons to prevent others from doing so, and to prevent the escaltion of the war.
It is not difficult to imagine that without these stabilizing actions either the Berlin airlift of the Korean war could have quickly escelated into World War 3. In 1954, just after the Korean war, the first thermonuclear weapon (5-7Mt) was deployed, marking an end to interstate war between major powers. The highest yielding thermonuclear weapon the US ever deployed, the 25 Mt Mk-41, entered service in 1960, but by that point, the line in the sand had already been drawn.
Since 1945 US policy has been clear, it will interfere in foreign affairs, using economic sanctions, conventional war and nuclear deterents to prevent costly large scale conflict. The direct result of this has been stabilization, a long-term decline in war deaths, and the end of interstate war between major powers. It will be interesting to see what happens as this strategy is abandoned as the survivors of WWII die off, and memory of why the US spends so much on its military fades. Hopefully enough time has gone by that a return to hostilities seems unthinkable; no doubt if there is a return, major hostilities will be massively costly in terms of life, money, liberty, and safety.
1: The Declining Risk of Death in Battle Bethany Lacina, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Bruce Russett International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 50, No. 3 (Sep., 2006), pp. 673-680
Re: No Population Bomb
#45I like this subject. Both relating to too much, and too few people... First, regarding absolute human numbers, we do have too much, mostly because we are rapidly using up fossil resources (not only fuel, but also fertilizers), and some important ones already peaked (phosphorous for example). But I don't believe that making your population decline fixes things, it only create other problems, the solution for the probl…
Re: No Population Bomb
#46I like this subject. Both relating to too much, and too few people... First, regarding absolute human numbers, we do have too much, mostly because we are rapidly using up fossil resources (not only fuel, but also fertilizers), and some important ones already peaked (phosphorous for example). But I don't believe that making your population decline fixes things, it only create other problems, the solution for the probl…
Phosphorus is the 11th most common element in the earth's crust. Let that sink in for a while. It running out makes about as much sense as the humanity running out of hydrogen. Deposits economically extractable at present market prices will run out within a few decades. This doesn't mean we run out of phosphorus, it just means that the market price will rise until other extraction methods provide enough supply. It will not have to rise far, given just how common the element is.
> Now we are running out of ... energy
We are not running out of energy. Nuclear and solar each provides the capability to run for effectively forever -- fracking provides the short-term supply to build them out.
The idea of resource depletion is completely anachronistic. Today, we can produce or substitute absolutely everything we need, given input of common elements and energy. And we have sources of energy that do not depend on scarce resources. The time when the economy was based on extraction of limited resources has passed.
Re: No Population Bomb
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Technology requires support from resources. You can't respond to claims that our resources are limited merely by arguing that we will develop more technologies that use resources.
Except that newer technologies typically use different resources for the same basic category of need, or use resources more efficiently. Including nuclear and solar, there's plenty of energy to be had, and you can use more energy and less of everything else for almost any purpose.
Solar has a much lower EROI than oil and coal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_inves...
Nuclear has a better EROI. One question is if we could build enough plants before an increase in energy prices due to scarcity. That would make investment much more cost prohibitive.
Re: No Population Bomb
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
I see a quote where the estimated possible population is basically derived directly from the land area required for habitation alone which is rubbish. We need to account for resource use as in food, energy, fertilizer, freshwater etc. I hope you'll feel refreshed to hear about a different resource peak than the usual, here's about limited phosphorus for fertilizer: http://phys.org/news/2013-04-phosphorus-essential-li…
Technology races ahead faster and faster while population flattens out yet lots of people insist on doom against reason. It is a psychological problem.
Re: No Population Bomb
#49I like this subject. Both relating to too much, and too few people... First, regarding absolute human numbers, we do have too much, mostly because we are rapidly using up fossil resources (not only fuel, but also fertilizers), and some important ones already peaked (phosphorous for example). But I don't believe that making your population decline fixes things, it only create other problems, the solution for the probl…
Obviously that Al-Quaeda plan will fail as greater numbers does not translate into greater power anymore. Machines are replacing humans both in industry and the military so the group with the most capital is the one who will win the game.
In the US, formerly marginalized groups like Catholics (Irish/Italian/polish) and eastern european Jewish immigrant came to wield considerable power in the mid 20th century, owing largely to burgeoning numbers. The Catholics actively organized colleges, universities and fraternal organizations that brought young Catholics into the civil service ranks.
Re: No Population Bomb
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't forget abortion and euthanasia. I'm breathing better already.
I was amazed to learn that the abortion rate per 1000 pregnancies in the US (in 2008 or 2010) was 138 (for white women) and 501 (for black women) (and somewhere in between for hispanic, native american, etc.) I intuitively thought it was like 10-20/1000. So I think abortion is doing pretty well for itself. Euthanasia really needs to step up its game, though.