No Population Bomb
31–40 of 96 posts
Re: No Population Bomb
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't forget abortion and euthanasia. I'm breathing better already.
I was amazed to learn that the abortion rate per 1000 pregnancies in the US (in 2008 or 2010) was 138 (for white women) and 501 (for black women) (and somewhere in between for hispanic, native american, etc.) I intuitively thought it was like 10-20/1000. So I think abortion is doing pretty well for itself. Euthanasia really needs to step up its game, though.
Re: No Population Bomb
#33Malthus was right and wrong. He was wrong about economic growth being linear (even then, it was a 0.5% per year exponential increase that just looked linear). The Industrial Revolution kicked in and now economic growth is (for the first time ever) faster than population growth. That change happened around 1850; until that point, per-person economic improvement was virtually nonexistent because population gobbled up any gains.
Economic growth has been faster-than-exponential as long as there have been humans. If you treat biological complexity or energy capture as the analytic extension of "economic growth" that goes back to the origin of life ~3.8 billion years ago: a faster-than-exponential curve that just happened to be very slow (but always getting faster) for 3.7999 billion years.
Now, we're also seeing population growth rates drop, due to causes cited by OP.
Malthus was right insofar as the stronger countries of Europe (Great Britain, Germany, Russia) spent the next 150 years viciously outsourcing their Malthusian catastrophes (probably without need to do so) to the weaker ones (Ireland, Poland) and other parts of the world.
Malthus didn't actually predict starvation. He predicted moral malfeasance (with his religious beliefs, this included birth control, although I wouldn't call that malfeasance) driven by population pressure, and that happened.
Humans are a mix of r-selective and K-selective impulses. Psychopathy is what happens when the r-selector within us is unchecked by K-selective conscience/fairness modules. The reason it is more common in men is that it conferred a stronger r-selective advantage in men (who could possess harems and "fan out") than in women (who are limited to about one child per fertile year, and 30 fertile years in a life).
Also, if you look at the "corporate paternalism" as more than metaphor, most people work in r-selective get-big-or-die gambits or large companies that have a lot of employees (children) but don't invest anything in them. Very few people work in K-selective enterprises that grow more slowly but invest in their people.
I don't think one can say, for sure, that the K-selector has won outright. I think that contest between the two sets of impulses still exists.
Much of how humans have imagined good and evil comes from the conflict (perhaps a neuroevolutionary arms race) between the r- and K-selective selves.
Re: No Population Bomb
#34Re: No Population Bomb
#35While the author is correct in terms of population growth, he has missed one critical point. We are heading into a population bomb not because of continued explosive population growth, but rather because of dwindling energy reserves. Industrialization and fossil fuels are what have allowed the population to exponentially grow this far. But now that energy is more expensive to extract, food is becoming more and more e…
Re: No Population Bomb
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was amazed to learn that the abortion rate per 1000 pregnancies in the US (in 2008 or 2010) was 138 (for white women) and 501 (for black women) (and somewhere in between for hispanic, native american, etc.) I intuitively thought it was like 10-20/1000. So I think abortion is doing pretty well for itself. Euthanasia really needs to step up its game, though.
No worries. The ACA will drain cash from medicare fast enough to make it a socialist sacrament by 2025 here in the USA. But we're getting our butt kicked by startups in the Netherlands and China.
Fortunately sodomy is now pretty popular and increasingly legally accepted, and unfortunately suicide is very high, particularly among young people (so it affects the largest number of quality adjusted life years, as well as preventing future reproduction).
Cannibalism seems to be a non-starter, though. Other than bath salts induced crazy people.
Re: No Population Bomb
#37First, regarding absolute human numbers, we do have too much, mostly because we are rapidly using up fossil resources (not only fuel, but also fertilizers), and some important ones already peaked (phosphorous for example).
But I don't believe that making your population decline fixes things, it only create other problems, the solution for the problem that I mentioned last, is develop more technology.
Malthus was right on his diagnostic, wrong in the solution (please, stop blabbering that Malthus is some stupid dude that is wrong, even on school I heard that, more than once, by several different teachers in several different grades), Malthus was absolutely correct in his calculations, he only did not accounted for the mining of phosphorous (that is one of the major enablers of green revolution).
Now we are running out of phosphorous and energy, and our food will return to levels Malthus calculated, unless we figure new tech, I hope someone does so soon.
Now regarding declining fertility levels... This is a problem too.
In history, there are several accounts of prosperous civilizations that had declining fertility, and all of them collapsed (usually when fertility reached around 1.3 per women). Several of the current western world problems are related to that, the need of external wars to keep some income flow (alright, no major powers are at war... between themselves, but how much wars US, France, etc... are involved with other smaller countries and forces? Even Brazil that is not developed is currently participating in a occupation force in Haiti and in civil war, although the media refuse to count the latter), debt problems, specially coming from welfare programs and wars, economies that are following their population numbers (thus we have Japan for example with economy declining with the same speed that their population is), and a increase in far right and far left party powers (example: brazillian military dictatorship apologists never been stronger, Greek far-right went from having no votes in parliament to 7%, and a estimated 35% in next election, Japan also has a new far-right nationalist party that got some respectable votes, the rise of Tea Party in US and Democrats steering leftward...)
And some groups, know of all this, and have a plan to take over when they can... The most famous one being Al Quaeda (that is the Arab translation of the name of Isaac Asimov books The Foundation, and it was known that Bin Laden was fan of the series). Al Quaeda is clearly aiming to teach their followers to keep a high fertility rate, so that they can conquer developed nations when they collapse under their own bureaucracy and population decline.
All those advocating that to fix the first problem I mentioned (peek resources), don't realize that by doing that, other nations still have population increasing, some of them will collapse because of it and cause further problems for everyone (and most likely will ignore the attempts of developed nations to stop their own population decline), and other nations are increasing in population on purpose, knowing well of its military effects, and will use it against any fool that voluntarily decline his population and ends struggling to keep itself up.
Re: No Population Bomb
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
What difference does that really make? Plenty of people today doing what you like had parents who didn't. If people you respect in tech don't have children, it'll be someone else's children that get to do the cool stuff in the next generation. It's not as if the demand for new technology is going to decrease as a few hundred million Chinese (hopefully) hit the middle class in a couple of decades.
I sort of believe people are able to overcome their circumstances in 1-2 generations after being removed from a sufficiently toxic environment, but I largely disbelieve that a statistically significant number of the people alive today in e.g. Afghanistan, or born over the next 20 years there, will be positive contributors to the world. There are outliers (who GTFO, are western educated, and either don't go back, or g…
I don't want to get into the argument about whether the U.S. has regressed or is regressing, but I have a hard time seeing how we're worse off than in 1973.
The Middle East and Africa appear to be the big exceptions.
Re: No Population Bomb
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
I sort of believe people are able to overcome their circumstances in 1-2 generations after being removed from a sufficiently toxic environment, but I largely disbelieve that a statistically significant number of the people alive today in e.g. Afghanistan, or born over the next 20 years there, will be positive contributors to the world. There are outliers (who GTFO, are western educated, and either don't go back, or g…
I guess my crystal ball is a little bit brighter. People thought things were going to hell internationally and domestically in the '70's, too. Here we are 40 years later, and most (all?) of the real dire predictions failed to bear out, and there are many amazing outcomes that few were predicting, including outstanding health and economic growth including in the nations you mentioned. Also a free and unified Europe, a…
Africa (at least, sub-Saharan) is actually doing better now than in the past. The Islamic world is the big laggard. A lot of this was due to the cold war legacy, though (same in Africa), so there's some reason to be optimistic in both.
India's recent success I'd put down to ending some stupid socialist policies in the 1990s, which were also fairly tied to the cold war (and personal preferences of early leaders). And in Asia, a lot of the problems were also due to communism or weird military dictatorships propped up by communism (absent the cold war, I really hope the US would have wanted Suharto, Marcos, etc. hanging from gallows vs. giving them billions in support).
There's also some selection bias in my crystal ball in that I've spent more time in places which were objectively superior in 1975 (Iraq, Afghanistan, certain parts of N.A., etc.) to 1990-2013.
Re: No Population Bomb
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Technology requires support from resources. You can't respond to claims that our resources are limited merely by arguing that we will develop more technologies that use resources.
We have enough uranium mined to last us about 1 or 2 thousands year. Now, with energy we can do things like desalinate water and make fertilizer. The only reason we don't do more nuclear power now is because there are cheaper options.
Claiming that all that will happen is the price (for energy, food, water, soil, maintaining biodiversity, etc) will rise is exactly the problem.