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Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

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Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#72
It's simple: A utility's costs for a customer are basically a fixed cost for a connection plus a variable cost for the power a customer uses. The fixed cost pays for the astoundingly expensive equipment needed for a connection, and the variable cost pays just for the actual power. In the US, the wholesale cost of power on the grid has long been about 0.5 cents per kWh, that is, relatively low. I have some figures from 2007 saying that the cost of power at the plant from coal is less than 3 cents per kWh and, nuclear fission, 2 cents.

Now, if a lot of consumers put solar panels on their roofs but remain connected to the grid, then they will pay less to the utility which stands to fail to get back its fixed costs.

So, eventually the customer will get an electric bill that itemizes a much larger fixed cost for the connection and a lower variable cost for the actual power.

In the meanwhile, there will be a lot of 'politics' where people with solar panels want to pay not enough for the fixed cost of the grid which will mean that people without solar panels will pay too much.

And the people with solar panels will want to be able to sell power back to the utilities which; such power will cause engineering problems on the grid, and the solution of these problems will raise the fixed costs.

For the batteries, so far they are too expensive. Same for home electric generators. Generally a big problem with electric power is that storage is very expensive.

Net, for generating electric power, super tough to improve on the results of the last 100 years in electric power engineering where the power comes from falling water, burning coal, or nuclear fission.

In simple terms, for the grid, really no one wants power from unreliable sources such as wind and solar because (1) still need the fixed cost of the present system for when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining, (2) wind/solar variability can cause stability issues on the grid (to be solved by a 'smart grid', that is, more fixed cost for the grid), (3) the good wind/solar sources are generally too far from the major grid demands meaning long distance transmission lines (more cost). My guess is that if take the subsidies away from wind and solar, then for the grid wind/solar will fall like a lead balloon.

Broadly, wind/solar for the grid asks us to pay for fixed cost twice, once for wind/solar and again for our current system for when wind/solar are not providing enough power. Heck, except for dress up, I have just one pair of shoes and wear them rain or shine -- I don't have separate shoes for rain and then shine. I have one computer for night and day and not separate computers for each. I want to pay for just one source of fixed cost of electric power, not one source on days with wind or sun and another source otherwise.

Power from wind/solar may be useful, say, for smelting aluminum, generating hydrogen from water, providing energy to make gasoline for water and coal. Note something these three candidate uses have in common: The output is easily stored, that is, buffered. Then notice the problem of electric power for the grid: The means of storage are far to inefficient.

For the grid, as far as I can see, wind and solar are just nonsense pushed by a 'wind/solar subsidy industry' that wants to talk people into measuring temperature not with thermometers but pictures of polar bears.

There is another candidate, small nukes. So, from Japan can buy a 'box'. In a neighborhood, dig a hole in the ground, install the box, and cover it over. Connect the box to the grid of the neighborhood. Then the box, just buried in its hole in the ground, provides all the electric power for the neighborhood for, say, 20 years. The savings are maintaining the long distance power transmission from the power station to the neighborhood. Of course the interior of the box is a nuclear fission reactor.

Now if my startup works and I get rich and build a nice place in the rural hills of, say, New Hampshire, then maybe I will be able to get such a box! Also for my 4 wheel drive truck to get around in the winters, use that power to make gasoline from water and coal! Maybe!

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#73
post #21

This piece overlooks the fact that utilities can install solar power cheaper than a residence can. This will always be the chase. Electricity will drop in price accordingly.

Although the point of the article is to identify a snowball effect with distributed solar generation vs. fossil fuel, that angle leaves out a lot.

Obviously utilities companies will (try to find a way to) pivot, and provide services or guarantees that a disconnected setup would not have.

Hell, they may even install panels on your roof when your house is built in exchange for discount/free energy, and sell the excess for profit.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#74
Decentralized power generation makes society as a whole far more resilient against sabotage and natural disasters.

As for the business model, Heinlein has a comment: "There has grown up in the minds of certain groups in this country the notion that because a man or corporation has made a profit out of the public for a number of years, the government and the courts are charged with the duty of guaranteeing such profit in the future, even in the face of changing circumstances and contrary to public interest. This strange doctrine is not supported by statute or common law. Neither individuals nor corporations have any right to come into court and ask that the clock of history be stopped, or turned back."

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#75
post #9

More like: business model of utilities disrupted by distributed energy resources. Also, peak demand in CA is at 9 pm, not noon: https://www.caiso.com/outlook/outlook.html The underlying problem is the mismatch between the old business model: Generate, distribute, and deliver electricity; charge for connection to grid and for electricity delivered and consumed. and the new situation: Generate *or* purchase electricity…

Part of the reason demand in CA is at 9 PM is due to more than 1 GW of "behind the meter" solar. From the perspective of the grid, this is a decrease in daytime demand. However, the primary reason for 9 PM demand is that it's spring. Summer peak demand is mid-afternoon, and winter has two peaks -- morning (~8 AM) and evening (~ 6 PM).

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the article is talking about customers who buy their own solar installations. The thing is, no system is available (afaik) that is 24/7 solar power (batteries add a massive cost to user solar installations) so the only way for you to have power at all times is to sell the surplus generated solar back to the utility (which is where the engineering problems come in) during peak solar hours and using the gird of…

Well the tech for batteries is getting cheaper and better. Check out this Hak5 rig of van with PV and batteries: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWmCpt2KXOs From this, it is not hard to imagine if one scaled this setup one could be off the grid now.

I was recently in rural South Sudan, at a place where there are no power lines within 80 miles. So the systems they use must be off the grid by necessity.

There were several PV and battery setups there which worked pretty well. Obviously you need to be careful with the amount of power that you use, but it can run computers, TV and lighting with a reasonable setup.

There was a computer lab at one installation which had one desktop machine acting as a server and about 15 thin clients to keep the power usage low.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#77
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cooling in the summer requires much less energy compared to heating in the winter. It's also a lot more of an optional comfort than a critical survival need.

That obviously depends on where you live. If you claim more energy is spent on heating overall I'd want a reference on that, since that goes against what I've heard. Especially since houses in cold climates tend to be a lot better insulated than houses in southern climates.

Yeah, cooling and heating are both just a change in heat energy, which would be the same for either except cooling is more difficult because you are lowering entropy locally, whereas heating you are just increasing entropy... at least that's how it seems to me.

On the other hand geothermal is free for the most part (to use, not installation of course).

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#78
post #48
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes! But in that paradigm, where you generate 80%+ of your needed energy and rely on the grid for the rest, how does that affect the utility? The only difference to them is that you draw less power than you used to. Sure, it would benefit them to learn your habits so they can manage steady power delivery at scale, but they don't get a say in your solar rollout. They don't get to prevent it. They don't get to be skept…

But what if you generate 110% of your electricity needs? You would push out more power than is coming in, sometimes literally running the meter backwards.

I don't know how it works elsewhere, but in New Zealand at least, power going each way is metered separately.

Power is sold to the electric company at a much lower rate than the power that is bought from the electric company.

So you might buy power for 27c/kwh and sell it for 3c/kwh.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#79

This is nice if it leads to a switch to cheaper localized non monopolistic electricity. However, I wonder if the chain reaction could lead to widespread utilities bankruptcies and maybe even cascate to another debt crisis affecting the already fragile financial and government sectors.

Well, that's basically what private care ownership did to private streetcar and bus companies in the first half of the 20th century. Many of today's "public transit" agencies started life as bailouts (takeovers, the only reasonable kind of bailout) of private companies who could not compete with the car.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#80
post #58

I work in this space. I think it is worth noting that, yes this is true for some players, particularly at middle management and executive levels. However it is equally work noting that some of the resistance is just conservative engineering. Would you just grab the latest 0.1 release of the hot new database and throw it up on your production systems because everyone keeps talking about the promise of it? This is a re…

I live in Ontario, which through some poor green power policies has really expensive power now. In response, I've reduced my power usage, plus I'm often in Germany for large periods of time. Now I'm starting to notice that the connection charge is on its way to dominating my power bill. I guess this is where the future is going.

"In response, I've reduced my power usage"

Perhaps those green power policies aren't so poor after all.

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