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Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

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Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#11
Something that would be interesting: a map estimating the areas in which a typical suburban home roof covered with PV panels would produce enough energy to power a typical suburban home's worth of electrical usage, assuming some level of battery technology.

I'm not actually sure what it'd look like. Seems like there might be a tradeoff between hotter areas, which have both higher PV output and higher peak electricity usage (due to A/C running flat out on hot days), and cooler areas which are lower on both. I guess the ideal situation would be something like SoCal within a mile of the coast: tons of sun yet ocean-moderated mild temperatures. But not sure about the rest of the country.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#12
post #5

Original report here: http://www.eei.org/ourissues/finance/Documents/disruptivecha... I believe that distributed energy is the future, plugging your house into your car, charging your car with solar and selling power to the grid when your forecasted household demand is lower then your forecasted supply. Because of the internet we now have distributed information and it is changing the world in every way. Anyone can s…

As a small part of this information revolution, may I suggest a (free as PDF) book on the energy problem and the varying efficacy of its potential solutions, available from here: http://www.withouthotair.com/ . It's an eye-opening read for the most part and uses real-world figures for its estimates to show just what might and might not work in replacing fossil fuels around the world. I wouldn't have been as intereste…

Cannot recommend this book enough - brilliant as it just looks at the figures - how much of Britain (Author is a Cambridge mathematics prof.) would have to be covered in solar panels or wind farms to replace coal etc.

Entertaining, memorable and instructive.

Go read.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#13

Something that would be interesting: a map estimating the areas in which a typical suburban home roof covered with PV panels would produce enough energy to power a typical suburban home's worth of electrical usage, assuming some level of battery technology. I'm not actually sure what it'd look like. Seems like there might be a tradeoff between hotter areas, which have both higher PV output and higher peak electricity…

Heat is bad for PV efficiency. Good solar areas are sunny but cool.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#14
One thing that may save utilities for a while is the rise of the electric car. There will be a need for charging stations to charge these cars when away from home and solar may not be practical in all locations. This could be especially true in cities where there may not be enough room for all the solar panels needed. Electrified roads that charge up cars as they drive on them would be even better and would be a natural extension of existing utility services. If utilities were smart they would focus on helping to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#15
post #9

More like: business model of utilities disrupted by distributed energy resources. Also, peak demand in CA is at 9 pm, not noon: https://www.caiso.com/outlook/outlook.html The underlying problem is the mismatch between the old business model: Generate, distribute, and deliver electricity; charge for connection to grid and for electricity delivered and consumed. and the new situation: Generate *or* purchase electricity…

While I agree with you 100%, I think the real challenge is going to be people not wanting to pay for the invisible "availability and distribution" when they've spent their entire life being trained they were paying for the electrons themselves.

If I were in that business, I would be putting a lot of marketing dollars into retraining people that the value of availability and distribution is a good percentage of the costs that they incur today, so when a customer starts generating their own electrons, they already know there is value in being attached to the network, value that corresponds with continued revenue for the company.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#17
Ironically widespread availability of solar power could lead to increased pollution. Purely hypothetically, if somehow it became popular for people to generate some, but not all, of the power they need from solar panels then perhaps people would pay less money to the power companies. Power production becomes less profitable and there's less demand for expanding supply. Meaning that the cheapest power production that requires the lowest capital investment will win out. And that's coal.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#18
I work in this space. I think it is worth noting that, yes this is true for some players, particularly at middle management and executive levels. However it is equally work noting that some of the resistance is just conservative engineering.

Would you just grab the latest 0.1 release of the hot new database and throw it up on your production systems because everyone keeps talking about the promise of it? This is a real concern at the engineering levels.

One of the problems with distributed generation is not that it eats away at grid profits - there is still profit from maintaining the grid that allows you to have power even if your solar panels break. There are price structures that allow this to be profitable for utilities (however everyone involved needs to look at it with fresh eyes -- homeowners need to stop thinking about it in just profit from unused kwh and utilities need to stop looking at it in terms of kwh pushed). The problem is that huge and expensive amounts of infrastructure are designed an manufactured with a one-way power flow in mind. Protection schemes are predicated on a star(ish) topology of distribution lines, where the assumption that power flows from the "hub" out.[1] Things like transformers are highly tuned for this type of flow, to the point where even small changes or running out of spec can seriously degrade the expected lifetime (usually thought out and planned on the time-frame of 30 years.) Power flowing the other way is a "break the line" event, period, to protect that equipment. A lot of substations don't have the type of capacity or equipment to handle power swings too far out of spec, because they designed that way for maximum efficience of the push model.

Something this article misses in it's analysis, is that power companies building infrastructure is absurdly expensive - getting right aways for power lines is a decade long, legally perilous, and highly prone to regulatory whim, endeavor (the NIMBY crowd is strong here). As such, once one is put in, the cost is amortized over 30+ year timelines, and efficient operation is actually strongly considered. Demand response and efficient appliances are actually in the interest of utilities, and they do recognize this. If they can't build new infrastructure to increase supply, they want demand to remain within their capability to deliver (and when done right, the base "connected" fee to the customers can be as or more profitable than more power to fewer customers).

Finally, all the understanding and models of how electricity works in an interconnected grid is based on models assuming "roughly" steady state capable generators. Things like solar and wind have some problems in this, as they can contribute instability to the overall system - if the wind dies, you have to have hot standby power to keep voltage levels up. If everyone in a region has PV, and clouds move in, they will be demanding more power from the grid. On a "partly sunny" day, this result in weird spikes, again placing strange wear patterns on transformers and generators that are ramping up and down in response.

Even the engineers I know who are all about this stuff are hesitant to just deploying it, because of all this technical challenge. Just like I would be hesitant to throw an unknown datastore into a stable working system without staging, testing, and otherwise slowly integrating it. It's even worse for the utilities, because they are in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position. What is worse - rolling slowly with the new technology and being blasted as obstructionists, or going head first, and being blasted when the unexpected happens and breaks a bunch of things, or finding a middle ground and making everyone unhappy?

[1] at transmission levels, this isn't true, and in dense urban centers the topology is meshier, but this statement is still true for a (geographically anyway) majority of power distribution.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#19
At least here in Michigan, DTE Energy is pushing efficiency and solar. Part of this is a legislated requirement, but I think the big motivator is how the regulator calculates their profit margin. AFAIK, they don't make their margin on selling electrons, but on capital investment. Higher utilization of their generating capacity just means slimmer profit margins. Most of their plants are 40-50 years old so they have plenty of capital investment and profits headed their way even if solar cuts into demand. I could be wrong about any or all of this, since I'm working off memory and I'm not going to read 100 page regulator reports.

Re: Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

#20

Original report here: http://www.eei.org/ourissues/finance/Documents/disruptivecha... I believe that distributed energy is the future, plugging your house into your car, charging your car with solar and selling power to the grid when your forecasted household demand is lower then your forecasted supply. Because of the internet we now have distributed information and it is changing the world in every way. Anyone can s…

I'm not so sure. Unless you have huge guaranteed subsidies like in Germany, making these investment decisions carries substantial risk. Is it really smart to buy solar panels and large batteries that amortize over 10 years when there could be a technological breakthrough right around the corner? Do you really want to be in a position to operate and maintain that technology, buy insurance, deal with repairs, etc? I know I don't.

And if you're talking about disconnecting from the grid entirely (I know you don't but the OP did), you suddenly have a high availability issue on your hands. That's never going to happen.

I think at the end of the day, solar will be operated by utilities. They don't have to buy all equipment on one day, so they can spread the risk. They have professional staff to fix and maintain things when they are broken.

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