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Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

21–30 of 102 posts

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of what happens going forward, Bitcoin has been a huge success by basically any metric that would have been put together >2 years ago. I don't think a lot of people who haven't been following the topic since the project was first put together really get how much larger and mainstream Bitcoin has become in such a short time with (relatively) so few hiccups compared to what seemed realistically possible when…

It's certainly not being used as a currency, its original intention. It's being used by speculators to get rich. Sure you might find a few examples of buyers and sellers using bitcoin currency, but you'll find a lot more speculators buying and selling bitcoins to profit from the spreads.

It is being used as a currency, and any metric on this far exceeds where people thought it would be a few years ago. It's also having massive adoption from a wide number of people. The reason the price is moving is not "speculation" as people seem to assume, but adoption.

MtGox said they were getting 20,000 new accounts a day recently. By definition, new accounts are not "speculators" putting in trades to manipulate the price, they are people putting in trades to acquire their first bitcoins.

People rushing into a currency, right after the EU forced bank depositors to lose %40-%60 of their money in a state run bank (which was only insolvent because they were forced to buy greek debt by the very same EU) is not "speculation" -- it is seeking a safe haven.

A lot of people hope bitcoin will be a safe haven away from these increasingly manipulated and untrustworthy national currencies.

That's a huge level of success, given the limited expectations for bitcoin only a few years ago.

Suddenly it's actually considered a viable store of value for some segment of the population. Sure, it's a small percentage, but still, it's massive.

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#22
post #4

Krugman doesn't understand Bitcoin. The computing power expended on mining is used to secure the Bitcoin network. There are many, many costs associated with securing the integrity of established financial networks too.

Once you secure the system however, the costs of increasing currency into that system is trivial.

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#23
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever Kurgman says, it is good to keep in mind that he is an economist turned partisan-politics hack. Whatever he looks at, he looks at it from his lens of ideological reasoning. His ideology clearly aligns with the status quo of economic policy, promoting quantitative easing and keeping up the artificial smokescreen of the superiority of the US dollar. Therefore any competing ideas (e.g. gold, bitcoin) need to be…

Krugman isn't being a political partisan hack here. Every mainstream economist from the Republican and Democratic administrations agree that a currency backed similarly to gold (as opposed to a central bank) is not a good idea.

Prove it. Also, using the word "mainstream" is equivocation, you'll just say anyone who doesn't agree with this position isn't "mainstream".

Further, in support of your claim that he's not being partisan, you name a partisan spectrum of "economists". Both democrats and republicans are partisans.

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#24
post #10
post #2

I think his previous statements are also significant. "[bitcoin] has fluctuated sharply, but overall it has soared. So buying into [bitcoin] has, at least so far, been a good investment. But does that make the experiment a success? Um, no. What we want from a monetary system isn’t to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich. And that’s not at all what…

This is not what is happening right now. Fact. BUT, if the project becomes mainstream as the dollar is today, the people of the earth will have a monetary system that doesnt allow taxation through inflation, with no banking monopolies, and globally available. Isnt that a system that "facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich"?? Consider this initial profit just by hoarding Bitcoin as a reward to pu…

> BUT, if the project becomes mainstream as the dollar is today, the people of the earth will have a monetary system that doesnt allow taxation through inflation, with no banking monopolies, and globally available.

First: inflation isn't equivalent to taxation (it transfers wealth from net creditors to net debtors, not from everyone else to the government.) [It also, at moderate levels, promotes investment and, thereby, economic growth.]

Second: as consensus among those who control a sufficient portion of the network can evolve the bitcoin protocol, its not actually immune to having a privileged class impose monetary policy.

Third: Except by replacing some functions of "bankers" with those of "miners", I'm not sure how Bitcoin gets away from any "banking monopolies" that actually exist.

> Isnt that a system that "facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich"??

No, it would (assuming that the features which make inflation impossible were maintained) be a system which undermines the features that were introduced to encourage productive development (and, therefore, "make the economy as a whole rich") with deflationary features which have the opposite effect.

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#25
post #4

Krugman doesn't understand Bitcoin. The computing power expended on mining is used to secure the Bitcoin network. There are many, many costs associated with securing the integrity of established financial networks too.

> The computing power expended on mining is used to secure the Bitcoin network.

Could you expand on this? I'm not sure I understand it. Thanks.

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#26

I suppose he actually compared the costs of mining with the costs of minting paper money? Because that sure seems to missing...

How much does it cost to change bits of data on a computer? That's what happens with quantitative easing. Bernanke isn't calling up the printing presses to print $2 trillion in paper currency.

Central banks and central bankers don't work for free. How much is spent on normal banking infrastructure, cash security vans, fraud protection etc.

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#27
post #3

Krugman obviously don't know what he is talking about. The resources he is talking about are used to process the transactions between bitcoin owners. The mining is just a side effect. How did a nobel prize winner made a so basic mistake on a topic that has been covered before by him so many times? Bet one Btc that he did that on purpose.

Can you explain this in more detail for those of us who don't fully understand how bitcoins come in to existence, because it sounds like one of those things that violate some laws of thermodynamics, like the "hydrogen generator" that you strap to your car to increase fuel economy. I ask because I know I've heard about people building huge computers with lots of expensive video cards for the purpose of mining bitcoins…

A bitcoin faq would give you more details, but the short answer is that bitcoin is built on cryptography. Every transaction in the system is stored in a chain of blocks. These blocks are created whenever someone discovers the answer to a very hard mathematical problem. When they do this, the new block is created, and that block contains all the transactions that were done since the last block was created. To make the next block, you have to have the previous block, so the entire chain of blocks can be authenticated, thus the entire history of transactions can be authenticated.

As a reward for securing the system in this way, that is, providing a secure distributed transaction history, the miners are rewarded with some bitcoins whenever they discover a new answer and create a new block.

Thus they are providing the security of the system and as a reward are given bitcoins. To keep the rate of new blocks contstant, the difficulty of the mathematical problem is adjusted up and down. Over time, the number of bitcoins you get for finding a new solution will diminish to zero.

To keep miners finding new answers, even after the reward in BTC hits zero (in the year 2140) the system has transaction fees. These are an incentive to keep finding blocks, and the person who finds the next block gets the fees for the transactions that go into that block.

Since blocks are discovered once every 10 minutes, you'd get 10 minutes worth of fees for the whole system-- which could be quite a bit in the future.

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#28
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's certainly not being used as a currency, its original intention. It's being used by speculators to get rich. Sure you might find a few examples of buyers and sellers using bitcoin currency, but you'll find a lot more speculators buying and selling bitcoins to profit from the spreads.

It is being used as a currency, and any metric on this far exceeds where people thought it would be a few years ago. It's also having massive adoption from a wide number of people. The reason the price is moving is not "speculation" as people seem to assume, but adoption. MtGox said they were getting 20,000 new accounts a day recently. By definition, new accounts are not "speculators" putting in trades to manipulate…

"It is being used as a currency"

Do you have a source for this? As far as I know, and I know this is a theory but I suspect a good theory, people used bitcoin as a currency when it was relatively stable and before it skyrocketed in value, and became extremely volatile. I highly doubt they're using it as a currency now because the value of a bitcoin changes dramatically within a day. Say it stabilizes at this price (~$95), you won't be able to transact with everyday goods because the price of 1 bitcoin is close to $100. Who would buy a hamburger for 1 bitcoin right now?

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#29
Maybe, just maybe, it's not Adam Smith who hates bitcoin like this misleading title suggest, but Krugman.

The guy may have a nobel prize, but his strong leftist views seems to be clouding his judgement.

Never before in history was there anthing like bitcoin. It's not a commodity like gold - is is pure fiat money, fully based on trust. Hoarding gold or silver or any metal or rare thing was a bad idea because of the alternative uses which where then prevented.

There is nothing inherent to bitcoin that may hamper a "country to convert a great part of this dead stock into active and productive stock".

In fact, by reducing friction, making transaction costs almost negligible, it will help this very thing!

How could Adam Smith may have hated something that did not exist back then, and that many economists had previously advocated for - a single worldwide fiat currency.

The only real problem is for governments, who won't be able to use the seignorage tax anymore, ie inflation, ie printing money out of thin air at the detriment of currency owners, to coerce people to do things or lose money.

Bitcoin is a game changer, the end of a tyranny - the use of force to make people work, instead of being able to live with what they have without the fear that the government will decide to reduce the purchasing power of what one owns by 20% overnight, through inflation or plain just stealing (as in Cyprus) to "transfer that wealth", reverse Robin Hood style, to their well connected and too big to fall fat-cat friends.

Also, it's quite fun that a system based on trust, of the people, by the people, is not trusting the government. It's something the founding fathers would certainly be quite proud of :-)

EDIT: And to those who argue the amount of computing power and electricity to run the bitcoin network is insane, just think for a second about Moore law, or how much GDP goes to the finance sectors. IIRC it is around 10%. That sure is a whole lot of money for the simple job of allocating resources (currency, saving, investment, transaction, etc).

It seems ripe for disruption.

A bitcoin economy will be able to do the same job for a fraction of these cost, thus allowing capital to be best spent on other uses (say actually advancing technology, or building real stuff) ie human capital and physical capital, which according to mainstream economic growth theory (from Solow to Romer) is essential for economic growth - real economic growth.

If you have some data and some time to spend, draw a graph of the log of gdp per capital and the percentage of the gdp spend on the finance sector. You'll see a strange recent trend - less growth, and more gdp for the finance sector. I'm not arguing a causation, but that's some food for throughts.

Just like Gandhi say - first they ignore you, then they fight you, then you win. We are currently at step #2. I expect the heat against bitcoin to raise in the next weeks. It's a big threat for the current establishment cash cow. It's a blessing to anyone who can provide value.

Re: Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin

#30

I suppose he actually compared the costs of mining with the costs of minting paper money? Because that sure seems to missing...

> I suppose he actually compared the costs of mining with the costs of minting paper money?

First: Coins are minted, paper money is printed. Second, and more significantly: Most US dollars in the money supply are neither paper money nor coins, so the cost to mint or print money is pretty much irrelevant to the cost to create dollars.

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