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Bitcoin falls from $266

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Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

same as the dollar and euro then. They are not backed by anything except the status quo.

The dollar is backed by the word of the most powerful organization in the history of civilization. If that doesn't have value, what does?

First, the word of the powerful is worthless, because power corrupts. People might keep their word because they're honest, or because they're accountable, but the "most powerful organization in the history of civilization" is by definition not accountable, and being an organization, neither is it honest.

Second, the US government doesn't give its word that dollars are usable for anything other than paying dollar-denominated debts to people inside its jurisdiction. If you owe somebody in the US €100, that's currently US$130.50. But if the dollar collapses tomorrow, you might need US$1300 to pay that debt, even to somebody in the US.

The US government has not given its word that you can exchange those US$130.50 for €100 tomorrow, or for anything else, except for debts already denominated in dollars. It doesn't even require that businesses allow you to buy things with any particular currency (this is a FAQ on the Fed's web site) — just that they accept payment for debts already contracted.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#392
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's until one-two major governments decides to make it illegal to deal in bit-coins..." I don't know about other governments, but I doubt the US will ever declare Bitcoin illegal (though I am told to never say never). Supporting my viewpoint, the US Treasury Department, through FinCEN, has recently tacitly approved Bitcoin: http://www.businessinsider.com/is-bitcoin-legal-2013-4 I think the US government would prefe…

> This is a broken argument. The US does not control the Euro, or Yen, etc, yet they do not make it illegal to trade in Euros/Yens within the borders. They don't, but that's because Euros/Yens are backed by foreign governments that would mind this on a diplomatic level. Bitcoin is a much easier target. And most governments would agree to work together on banning it. Also: the US might not "make it illegal to trade in…

I'd love to see these startups springing up everywhere solely because of bitcoin :)

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#393
This sudden drop sounds like an intentional attack on Bitcoin to lower the price. I have heard stories of hackers trying to sabotage the price of Bitcoin by forcing the price lower and then buying a whole heap of Bitcoin, sounds like one of those attacks finally worked. Looks like all of the Bitcoin publicity from the likes of Business Week and The New York Times has attracted some good old fashioned currency manipulators who want a piece of the pie.

Although there is no evidence to suggest this isn't an old fashioned bank-run, there appears to be quite a few reports of mining pools being attacked as well. Something is definitely going on here, but overall it won't stop the remarkable progress Bitcoin has made this year so far.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#394
Sold everything I had yesterday at ~$240

https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/321751009598791682

I was buying and selling BitCoins with a very simple theory. Each time the currency would rally I would check the stories on Google News and check the graph on Google Trends[1].

Other price peaks would correspond with a peak on the trends graph[2], a new peak in new stories (with more stories in more general media publications), and more traffic to the sites that are the top results for "BitCoin" (using Compete etc.)

The peak yesterday had no new interest driving it, and no new buyers coming in. It was clear what was going to happen next.

Previous price peaks would drive new news stories which would drive the next peak. Yesterday I logged into News and Trends and found the trends level at its lowest in 30+ days and no new large items in news and sold.

[1] https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/319427166817357824

[2] https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/315680085468405760

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#395
post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is HUGE news on Bitcoin - nothing like this has ever happened in it's history. Market went from $250 to $110 in 5 hours. MtGox was down for 30 minutes today. Trading lag was 600 seconds for orders placed at market prices. April 10th, 2013 may be the day that will be remember for the next 20 years as the day that Bitcoin crashed and either (A) never recovered or (B) kept progressing after an incredible Blip. Defi…

Bitcoin has been through worse than this at least twice.

Last time it crashed 50% (which I think has only happened once, in 2011) it took more than a few hours.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#396
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's until one-two major governments decides to make it illegal to deal in bit-coins..." I don't know about other governments, but I doubt the US will ever declare Bitcoin illegal (though I am told to never say never). Supporting my viewpoint, the US Treasury Department, through FinCEN, has recently tacitly approved Bitcoin: http://www.businessinsider.com/is-bitcoin-legal-2013-4 I think the US government would prefe…

> This is a broken argument. The US does not control the Euro, or Yen, etc, yet they do not make it illegal to trade in Euros/Yens within the borders. They don't, but that's because Euros/Yens are backed by foreign governments that would mind this on a diplomatic level. Bitcoin is a much easier target. And most governments would agree to work together on banning it. Also: the US might not "make it illegal to trade in…

"They don't, but that's because Euros/Yens are backed by foreign governments".

No, that is not the reason. Replace "Euros/Yens" with "gold" in my sentence, and my point stands with gold being backed by nothing. Basically the US government is totally fine with side markets that they cannot control directly and that exist in parallel with the USD (whether it is EUR, gold, Bitcoin, whatever).

Your other argument also fails to convince me that the government would want to declare Bitcoin illegal. You say it can be used for money laundering, but gold and cash can already be used for money laundering (and even more discreetly since trading gold or cash does not leave a trail like in the Bitcoin blockchain). The US govt does not make gold and cash illegal because they realize it is silly/unenforcable/pointless and would hurt the economy more than it would manage reducing illegal activity. Case in point: the US did attempt to criminalize possession of gold in 1933, but they eventually realized how silly and stupid this was, so they decriminalized it!

When the Internet was being developed throughout the world, were you the kind of person who looked at it and envisioned that its censorship-resistant decentralized aspect could be used to facilitate the transmission of potentially illegal information (software, data, child porn, ideas, etc, especially in countries with no freedom of speech) and said "geesh I bet governments are going to make Internet illegal"?

"For one, the government doesn't care for 'startups springing up everywhere'"

I think my point was clear that these startups are potentially the start of a big new economy complementing the current one that could financially benefit the government with revenues from taxes. So, yes, the government would love to see a big economy pop up.

"Plus, if bitcoin is banned, its economic activity will just migrate to conventional money again, it wont be lost."

No. The world economy is not a zero-sum game. It is possible to create wealth (wealth is stuff we want, not money, see http://www.paulgraham.com/wealth.html ) and Bitcoin and its economy would certainly create extra wealth. Another example showing how silly your assumption that the economy is a zero-sum game is: since the start of e-commerce, do you think that it has stolen commerce from or mostly added to the brick-and-mortar industry? Obviously, sometimes stolen (journals, etc) but e-commerce has mostly added wealth and economic activity on top of the brick-and-mortar one. In other word the size and richness and wealth of the current economy far surpases the one of the economy pre-Internet.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#397
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, no. The US dollar is backed by US law guaranteeing that it must be accepted as payment for all debts and by US law requiring taxes to be paid in USD. All of which, as the parent post points out, is dwarfed by the backing provided by all the merchants, banks, and consumers in the world who are using USD today. The corner grocery store in Pottsville, PA backs the USD by accepting it as payment for frozen pizza and…

> The US dollar is backed by US law guaranteeing that it must be accepted as payment for all debts If you're referring to the 'legal tender for all debts public and private' clause on the notes themselves, that means that it can be used for such purposes, not that it must be accepted. If we agree that I'll do your deck and you'll give me your car, you can't just say 'I want to keep my car, here's some cash instead'.

Generally speaking, if I say that and you take me to court to get my car, the court will award you damages, which I can pay with some cash. The alternative, where the court orders me to give you my car, is called "specific performance" and is very rare.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#398
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a pessimist you are. I would not want to live in your world. In mine, in the hypothetical case we will need to fight for Bitcoin, we will, like we did against the SOPA bill. The government is made for the people. Don't you forget that.

You misunderstand me. I meant it was an uphill battle to argue to all the paranoid people that the U.S. government has yet to outlaw trading in Yen, Euro, etc, even though it doesn't control those currencies either.

Ah, ok.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#399
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That situation is not rather unique at all. Most developed nations issue debt in a currency controlled by their central bank, with the notable exception of the Eurozone.

Your point is a little misleading I think. How big is the list of "most developed nations" after you remove the US and Euro Zone from the list? Yes, every country CAN issue national debt. But issuing sovereign debt is more common largely because investors prefer it. Either way, I didn't mean to sound misleading by calling it "rather unique." Thanks for helping me clarify.

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, England, Russia, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Iceland, Israel, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, and arguably PRC, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Qatar, and Chile, are all developed nations not in the US or Eurozone.

You are, however, correct that most of these countries issue their debt in US dollars ("sovereign debt") rather than their national currencies.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#400
post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> someone were to yell "fire!" Who did yell this time? >> the more people around the world who adopt it Who shall be those people ? Are we, by any chance, thinking that we should count the people in mining bitcoins or adopting a currency based on algorithms(let alone the talk about encryption/bits/bytes/code) which they do not have an iota of idea about? Or are we considering that "naah, it's not for them 'non-techi…

Agreed. I don't trust the dollar as investment and I don't understand why people consider bitcoin something worth investing in. Sure, for trading stuff between techies it looks fair enough but it'll never reach the general public. The whole banking system works hard to earn the customers' trust and any small mistake damages that. Bitcoin doesn't provide any assurances, support, etc... Looks like another fad the compu…

>I don't understand why people consider bitcoin something worth investing in

You don't understand the power of frictionless micropayments and monetary privacy?

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