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Bitcoin down 60% to $100

bitstamp.net

31–40 of 94 posts

Re: Bitcoin down 60% to $100

#31
post #19

Day low of $70 but now $180. Huge potential profits for some. Edit: that low is on bitstamp, mtgox has a low of $126. Still huge swings.

And huge potential losses for others. Remember this is a zero sum game (outside the miners), money gained by one person is lost by another.

Re: Bitcoin down 60% to $100

#34
Bitcoin "down" to $100. They were $10 in January. They'll be over $50 at the end of this month. When I was mining 18 months ago, they were about a quarter.

Smooth the line and bitcoins are doing exactly what you'd expect from a linear-demand-growth emerging commodity market with a fixed rate of supply. Everything is going exactly according to plan.

Note well that the exact same thing (a big speculative run-up and follow-up correction) happened a couple years ago for the $0.50 to $29 spike, and will probably happen again for the inevitable $300 to $1500 run-up.

Re: Bitcoin down 60% to $100

#35
post #23

Tell me again why any sane person would accept bitcoin as a currency for goods?

It's a young experiment, it'll take time to see what happens with it. Although according to WordPress, their primary motivation for accepting it as payment is to facilitate certain international transactions. (There are a few existing fiat currencies that make BTC look rock-solid by comparison.)

I don't really have any issue with services like WordPress (whose per-user support costs are likely negligible for most users) accepting Bitcoin. In those cases the PR is probably worth it regardless of the the price swings. My issue is more with physical goods.

Lots of people seem to be looking forward to a future of buying physical goods with Bitcoin or bitcoin-alike currencies, which in some ways would be nice but I haven't seen a practical solution to the problem of potentially huge value swings. Nobody wants to sell a real physical good paid for with a stable currency to someone else in a currency that can lose half of its value or more in hours or even days.

Re: Bitcoin down 60% to $100

#36

Note that the price may not be live, but instead a CloudFlare cached version. The price may be incorrect.

This site seems to have a fairly decent up to date measurement in realtime. It lacks the graphing ability to see the dramatic drop off trend though:

http://realtimebitcoin.info/

Re: Bitcoin down 60% to $100

#38
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please quit with the superficial throwaway comments, that's two content-free crowd-pleasers in under 15 minutes. In answer to your question, pricing goods in a fluctuating currency is a well understood problem, and even with a single Google you'd find the Bitcoin community already have established solutions. The short answer: spot price is 99% noise, so don't use it. Unapologetic for being annoyed at this stuff. Chec…

I just did several googles, and can't find an answer to that question. Maybe you could enlighten us on the "well established solutions" (or just some google search terms to pull them up)? It seems like a serious question to me. Currency volatility in the real world is generally considered a near-disaster-level problem. So if Bitcoin has truly solved this in a "well established" way I'm sure there are a bunch of natio…

There is at least one web service that produces an average over some period. As to how you pick a good weighting, it probably depends a lot on how fast you intend to flip outgoing goods/incoming currency, or where you store value. Try terms like "VWAP", "Bitcoin average price" and so on.

I have no doubt a momentary search over on SSRN will produce a hundred papers entirely dedicated to formalizations of this process.

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