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Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

daniellemorrill.com

31–40 of 47 posts

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#31

I don't see how traction relates to traffic. Traction rates to financials. Traffic relates to momentum, which is more of a measure of visitors, and not of growth. Not a bad data set per we, either. I'd love to see this type of approach done with each company's growth, but I am sure most will shy away, including the YC founders.

Traction relates to financials - citation needed

Isn't that just a truism? Revenue growth=traction by definition.

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#32
post #28
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like the value may be in who is on the list and growing. Maybe the order is not as important as the fact that these are all companies worth watching?

Let me say first of all that I have great respect for the way you have engaged with criticism on this post and on your previous ones. Even when I disagree with your approach or whatever, I appreciate your curiosity and eagerness to learn. Some ways that you could make weaker claims but with more confidence in your results: * Have an unordered list of companies that are growing. This was your suggestion. I don't know…

Thank you, especially for hearing my earnestness through all the noise - I'm glad it comes through. Without revealing too much, I can tell you that I have a much varied and interesting data set to use to rank companies for the next full YC index. I expect there will be feedback on the method for that one too, but with every iteration it is getting massively better.

Crazy idea - javascript startups can put on their site to report their actual data to me?

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#33
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Traction relates to financials - citation needed

Isn't that just a truism? Revenue growth=traction by definition.

No, that is not a truism. It is a falsism if it is any kind of ism.

Instagram has yet to make a single dollar, for an extreme example, and yet nobody would argue it has gained insane amounts of traction since in the mobile photo sharing space since launch. I would use Facebook as an example, but they had small revenue generating efforts early on so it doesn't make as clean of an example.

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#34
post #29

I think traffic for lists like these is something of a red herring. Small fluctuations for low-traffic sites are almost entirely a result of randomness or sampling error. A better metric would be to divide the companies by traffic into nontrivial traffic(Alexa Rank<10,000) and trivial traffic for the rest. It would require some more research, but it would also be very helpful to separate consumer vs B2B companies and…

Splitting out consumer vs. B2B companies is definitely on my list in the near future

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#35

I don't see how traction relates to traffic. Traction rates to financials. Traffic relates to momentum, which is more of a measure of visitors, and not of growth. Not a bad data set per we, either. I'd love to see this type of approach done with each company's growth, but I am sure most will shy away, including the YC founders.

Traction relates to financials - citation needed

You can argue about which kind of traction is better, revenue or traffic, but there is no doubt the traffic and users == traction.

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#36
post #17

This work lacks grounding because the measure of interest, Alexa rank , is not situated in measures that are familiar. The author, dmor, is not familiar with the semantics of the Alexa rank. Nor are most readers. We know loosely that low rank is good. But what does going from rank 1000 to 100 really mean? How hard is that? Is it a traffic increase of 10x? 100x? What exponential base does it follow? So this chart show…

While I understand your point, I disagree with the conclusion. Simply because a system is complicated that doesnt mean that we should give up. You create a first order approximation and then iterate (very much like how it seems dmor is trying to do). If you know something about how the Alexa ranking system works that we do not, then by all means share it. Simply saying that the author does not know and therefore all conclusions are useless is unhelpful and probably incorrect. To be honest, this reminds me of the elderly who dont understand computers and just give up without trying.

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#37
post #3

Comparing absolute change in Alexa rank seems fundamentally broken to me. It weights massively to early companies. Snipshot's rank rose by nearly 80,000 - that's undeniably good, but 37 of the companies on the list had a previous rank of less than 80,000... I would suggest comparing the delta of the log of rank, this gives a more interesting (to me) metric... For example this bumps Newsblur up from a "meh" 23 to 1! A…

I think that its both. Current traffic is like position and the delta is velocity. To know who is bigger now, the velocity is relatively unimportant. To try and guess who is going to be bigger next year, current position is less important.

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#38
post #17

This work lacks grounding because the measure of interest, Alexa rank , is not situated in measures that are familiar. The author, dmor, is not familiar with the semantics of the Alexa rank. Nor are most readers. We know loosely that low rank is good. But what does going from rank 1000 to 100 really mean? How hard is that? Is it a traffic increase of 10x? 100x? What exponential base does it follow? So this chart show…

When you don't have deep (insider) access to key metrics, you have to rely on other indicators of success. Alexa provides one piece of data that is semi-meaningful: if nothing else, I'd wager it's roughly correlated (on average) with market cap and/or exit price. (dmor: this would be a cool graph!)

Plus, these companies are in drastically different markets. Their key metrics are probably quite different, or (at the very least) not directly comparable to growth in value / profitability.

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#39
Google Trends can be used to get some sense of traction. eg. http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Newsblur%2C%20coinbas...

The problem is that the results are relative. One way would be to pick a keyword with a relatively high search volume which could be used as baseline. Another issue that I can think of is that companies named after common english words i.e. Pebble will have their results artificially inflated. This process might be hard or tricky to automate.

Growth in followers/likes/tweets/+1 counts could be used as a measure of traction.

Re: Traction Tracker: Y Combinator Companies With Significant Traffic Growth

#40
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that just a truism? Revenue growth=traction by definition.

No, that is not a truism. It is a falsism if it is any kind of ism. Instagram has yet to make a single dollar, for an extreme example, and yet nobody would argue it has gained insane amounts of traction since in the mobile photo sharing space since launch. I would use Facebook as an example, but they had small revenue generating efforts early on so it doesn't make as clean of an example.

Let me rephrase then: Not all traction is revenue growth, but all revenue growth is traction(again, by definition).
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