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Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

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101–110 of 209 posts

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#101
post #96

This fundamental flaw is absolutely glaring to anyone who has any understanding of economic history -- and it's amazing to me how many technologists willfully disregard several centuries of accumulated experience. Because of their built-in deflationary spiral, Bitcoins can never meaningfully be used as a medium of exchange: it will always be tempting to keep your Bitcoins in your pocket and let them appreciate instea…

Bitcoin is a commodity backed by Mathematics with the convenience of transfer of ownership through electronic rather than physical means. When the last coin is mined in 2140 the point of deflation might hold if it was a currency, but it's not. It is a faith based value store based on supply and demand, just like gold, which has next to no useful properties other than being shiny, non-tarnishing, conductive AND PEOPLE…

Bitcoin isn't backed by anything.

"Backing" is also grossly misunderstood in general.

Any "Backing" a currency has can generally be thought of as an put option on something fungible.

For example, gold will never drop below $10-$20 per Oz because of the industrial/jewelry/etc uses people find for it. However, that "backing" only makes up a small percent of the price of gold.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#102
Money is inflationary not because it is printed, but mostly because government allows banks to lend for long years the money that the bank could need tomorrow if the people whose money it is showed up at the said bank and demanded it back.

There's nothing that could stop it for bitcoin. I can easily imagine that inflationary pressure from growing body of bitcoin credit could overcome bitcoin appreciation due to increase of humanity wealth.

Yes. Government won't be able to print money but banks will be still be able to inflate money as today. Government will just have to tax the banks in return for the privilege of operating this way.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#103
post #65

"Eventually the Bitcoin economy is going to run into the problem of its algorithm and the Bitcoin-hoarding because; there will not be enough currency." There is an oscillation process at work here - as people hoard bitcoins, the value of each individual bitcoin increases. People will then sell off their bitcoins in exchange for a higher price than they initially payed for them, thus increasing the money supply and al…

Why would anyone sell when they see the price keep rising? Unless they fear it will go down - and then everyone wants to sell and the bubble pops...

Why would anyone sell when they see the price keep rising? Some will sell when the total sum of their bitcoins is big enough for them to retire on.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#104
The Bitcoin craze is without a doubt one of the most insane things I've lived through. I feel badly for all the late arrivals who are (anecdotally) dipping into long term savings and levering up to buy them.

The dynamic is identical to me between this, the NASDAQ at 5000, and the Case Schiller index just under 190. Maybe some economists out there are trying to be polite, but this is just nuts. Best regards to those involved, I hope I'm wrong for your sakes. But if I can convince _one single person_ on HN from wasting their savings on BC, then I'll feel like I've made a difference.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#105
post #80
post #28

This is essentially the "it will become so valuable, no one will want it anymore" argument. There are uses of Bitcoin that are complementary to traditional currencies, and can survive both volatility and a large level of hoarding. One example: an enabler of quick, distant, irreversible transfer under software mediation. That is, you get the transactional Bitcoin you need from a trusted source, then engage in a transa…

Very well put. I think past experiences are definitely reason to be cautious, but too often it seems that analysis neglects to even consider the fact that there is no direct equivalent to Bitcoin. It remains to be seen if Bitcoin is 'worth' its current valuation, but I think it's obvious that it has and will continue to have uses in the future.

There are direct equivalents to Bitcoin and I am interested in a global virtual currency however, I don't believe that Bitcoin is going to be it.

I believe that Bitcoin's value is more of a speculative digital asset rather than a currency because, there are two reasons to own Bitcoin - either to derive indirect utility through purchasing goods with Bitcoin in the future OR the expectation that Bitcoin will rise in monetary value. Currently, Bitcoin can be considered elastic (to some extent) although it’s subject to future diminishing elasticity meaning that, in the long run there will be a finite supply of Bitcoins and an inelastic supply (after all there are only 21M of them).

However, a long-run inelastic and fixed supply currency is not useful for a real world economy because, currencies are supposed to be used as a medium of exchange to facilitate transactions which, allows the multiplier effect kick in and increase the economies wealth. Whereas due to the deflationary spiral you're incentivised to hoard Bitcoins & let them appreciate in value instead which is the opposite effect of what a currency is meant to do.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#106

Has anyone worked out the math on the divisibility of bitcoin? Here are some questions: Bitcoin gets world wide adoption. It's used in transactions by ~3 billion people (right now). * What's the expected value of a bitcoin? (how much BTC for a stick of gum?) * What is the average permanent loss rate of bitcoins now? (when a bitcoin wallet is accidentally deleted, the coins are lost forever) What about in the future?…

The bitcoin protocol can be changed to add as many decimal points as needed. It's not static. Whether a change is adopted depends on each person running a node: it's decentralized.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#107
post #57
post #44

Two issues: Firstly, the mining allocation rate isn't meaningfully part of the bitcoin protocol; it's just a setting. Any portion of the network large enough to survive as a detached economy can choose to change the (batty) monetary policy whenever it likes. Secondly, this probably won't be necessary, as nothing really prevents bitcoin holders from forming banks and issuing inflationary/debased/pegged notes to beat t…

Exactly. Everyone seems to be missing the fact that "bitcoin" is a protocol and the most prominent instance of its use. Any government or group of people can go start their own blockchain.

Or even fork off the existing block chain at a pre-determined block.

This way, all existing owners of the parent crypto currency would have equal coin-to-coin values in the new crypto currency as of a certain date.

I'm surprised I haven't heard of any existing alternate crypto currencies intentionally forking off of the existing Bitcoin block chain. They all seem to start off with their own new block chains.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#108
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO, this isn't a failure. We know that it's not going to be a business-as-usual currency. Easy credit is an incentive for business; inflation is an incentive for consumers. Governments have much better control over that. BC is better understood as a commodity market with a simpler financial instrumentation. Instead of trading contracts for goods, you are able to trade the good itself, at internet speed and scale. T…

Except that Bitcoin is not a commodity (as the term is commonly understood) because it has no use other than as a currency.

Which only means that its value can drop to zero, unlike other commodities.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#109
One thing that struck me about this article is the poor use of punctuation. It really damages the credibility of the author when their language is so choppy. It might seem superficial, but this completely ruined the author's argument for me. Just one example: "At the current rate, 25 Bitcoins are generated every 10 minutes although; this will be continuously halved every four years...". That semicolon is so wrong.

Re: Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed

#110

Has anyone worked out the math on the divisibility of bitcoin? Here are some questions: Bitcoin gets world wide adoption. It's used in transactions by ~3 billion people (right now). * What's the expected value of a bitcoin? (how much BTC for a stick of gum?) * What is the average permanent loss rate of bitcoins now? (when a bitcoin wallet is accidentally deleted, the coins are lost forever) What about in the future?…

I think Bitcoin can change it's implementation in a later version to make bitcoins even more divisible.
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