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Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

forbes.com

21–30 of 110 posts

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#21
"If you have a $10 bill and I replace it with ten $1 bills, do you feel richer?"

Yes, If I split my 10 into 10 ones and if 9 can pay today for something that cost 10 yesterday, I feel richer.

This causes folks to save and horde like in Japan. Because its deflationary.

It's more difficult to control the masses via monetary policy if things are deflationary... That's why governments try to maintain slight inflation. Comfortable folks don't produce for the government.

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#22
post #13

Can someone pro-bitcoin provide a counterpoint to the deflationary spiral criticism? I don't have enough of an understanding in economics to think of one.

Krugman is talking about "The Paradox of Savings". Here's F.A Hayek's rebuttal to the argument when it was originally proposed back in the 30s: (http://mises.org/daily/2804) (Sorry if I'm a bit of a broken record on this but it applies too well to bitcoin).

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#23
post #14
post #3

The mistake in the article is that bitcoins can subdivide AND increase in value. Bitcoins are not going to have liquidity crisis, as much as some people seem to want it to.

The problem is that they increase in value, to a degree that the individually rational choice is not to spend them "now". The babysitting coop coupons were effectively subdividable as well: participants could have taken the initiative to say "I'll provide two hours of babysitting for an hour coupon" or "I'll provide 15 minutes of babysitting for 1/2 an hour coupon". [Edit, for elaboration] That would be rational when…

If there had been a liquid, open market for coupons and the coupons could subdivide they would have been fine.

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#24
The key point is that bitcoin is not actually a currency (like the dollar or euro), it is a commodity (like gold or silver). Thus it will be subject to speculative bubbles and unpredictable swings in value, and the typical holder will not be able to do much about that.

Central banks and fiat currency remove the danger of speculative bubbles...or at least, they centralize the danger to a single, publicly controlled entity.

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#25
post #15
post #3

The mistake in the article is that bitcoins can subdivide AND increase in value. Bitcoins are not going to have liquidity crisis, as much as some people seem to want it to.

Subdiving does not increase the overall supply of Bitcoin though. There would be no way in the future to obtain Bitcoin, except by taking it from someone else. Or someone else's hoard, as the case may be. (This is at least briefly touched on in the article) This is also covered in the book "Debt: The First 5000 Years", when gold-standard and silver-standard monarchies had real problems keeping money in circulation du…

For liquidity, what matters is that the VALUE of the liquidity is adequate. Whether you're trading full bitcoins or fractions of a bitcoin doesn't matter.

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#26
post #5

To me it seems the problem with the Babysitting coop was price fixing. The price of of an hour of babysitting was always 1. If the price of an hour of babysitting was allowed to float you would not have the shortages.

See the original Krugman article. It goes further into explaining efforts to try and rectify their economy, as well as a general discussion on the principles involved.

Well, right. They added more coupons, which fixed the problem.

But I don't see how that's significantly different from allowing the price of babysitting to float -- I know doubling the number of coupons isn't exactly the same as making them half as valuable, but it's similar.

But since bitcoins simply adjust in value according to market demand, I, as well, don't understand how Krugman's story applies to bitcoin. If everyone thinks bitcoin's value will always go up, because it's deflationary, and everybody hoards -- well not everybody will, right? There must be other factors at hand, surely?

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#27
post #3

The mistake in the article is that bitcoins can subdivide AND increase in value. Bitcoins are not going to have liquidity crisis, as much as some people seem to want it to.

There won't be a liquidity crisis only if all people dealing with bitcoins will accept to lower their prices in response to the deflation of the currency - this would include workers paid with bitcoin. Not very likely. Would you accept to be paid less and less every year (month, week...)?

> Would you accept to be paid less and less every year (month, week...)

Because they'd be able to buy more and more with that money, obviously.

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#28
post #5

To me it seems the problem with the Babysitting coop was price fixing. The price of of an hour of babysitting was always 1. If the price of an hour of babysitting was allowed to float you would not have the shortages.

Float compared to what? The price of an hour of babysitting was always 1 because the only thing on the exchange is an hour of babysitting.

I suppose you could argue some hours of babysitting are more valuable than others, and people could negotiate, say, 4 hours for 5 coupons or vice versa. It's not clear this either (a) wasn't already done on some ad hoc basis (I'd imagine if it was agreeable to both parties, it'd probably happen) or (b) would have provided a solution to the liquidity problem, though.

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#29
post #13

Can someone pro-bitcoin provide a counterpoint to the deflationary spiral criticism? I don't have enough of an understanding in economics to think of one.

> provide a counterpoint to the deflationary spiral criticism?

Is that the retarded idea that no one will buy anything if prices keep falling? Look no further than computers, cell phones and all manner of electronic gadgets. Their prices keep going down, but everyone keeps buying them.

If you need/want something now, you'll buy it now.

Here's a summary of the article: "The State-Controlled Mainstream Media paints a gloomy picture of a currency that can't be controlled by the State."

EDIT: Perhaps a downvoter might want to point out a flaw in what I said?

Re: Krugman's Baby-Sitting Co-op Explains The Design Flaw At The Heart Of Bitcoin

#30
post #11

I don't quite buy the analogy. Seems to me that part of the problem was having tokens that could only be exchanged for one thing, and even then at a fixed exchange rate.

Here the problem is that bitcoins are illiquid: you can't spend them freely on most goods and services, and you can't get a consistent exchange rate into a liquid currency, and the supply problem means that hoarding is sensible... right up until the crash.
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