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There are no 10x developers, but there are 1/10 ones

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Re: There are no 10x developers, but there are 1/10 ones

#51
post #39

Developers is one thing, but how about sysadmin work? I think I've seen it there, too. I looked at the tickets worked by a group of people from June 1 to December 15 of a year far in the past. The counts looked like this: 119 348 353 409 515 559 572 634 722 779 830 1004 1029 1169 1345 1487 2096 That's a total of 13970 tickets closed by 17 techs. If you split it evenly, that's 821 each, or about 5.8%. The lowest tech…

My wife worked with a guy who closed a ticket about closing tickets. If you're measured purely on the basis of number of tickets closed, you can game the system. Replaced users mouse, ticket closed. Or, upgraded network software on 300 machines, ticket closed. If someone is doing twice as many tickets as the next guy, I'd assume he is doing a lot of BS work, not that he's twice as fast.

Well, yeah, that's why I said tickets aren't fungible.

Still, when you have someone hopping on them as quickly as they're opened while someone else just grabs one every hour or two, something is wrong. What if I told you the "one every hour or two" person was doing the dumbest, simplest ones, while the top tech was doing the hardest ones (in addition to everything else)? It happened.

Re: There are no 10x developers, but there are 1/10 ones

#53
post #34

I think the problem is that the author has normalized his development standard to proficient coders in the tech industry. I used to do enterprise software in the midwest and there are legions of 1/10th developers out there. Its easy move your baseline far away from the average when you are in the echo-chamber of high-tech startups. Compared to the true average developer there are definitely 10x developers.

I think the author's point was we should start calling a spade a spade. Stop calling the 1/10th developers normal baseline and admit that even thought they may be the majority of developers, that doesn't mean we should accept that as the status quo. I imagine this phenomenon is common in most professions. They are tons of accountants and arborists out there. I wonder if they have the same ratio of 'able' to 'efficien…

I once had a professor who remarked that if you have a large enough population, the distribution of their skills will form a normal distribution. The difference is that, in some fields, the difference between a genius and a dud is much smaller than others.

Re: There are no 10x developers, but there are 1/10 ones

#54

I find this a challenging read. If the guy isn't cutting it in the position he is in, then its reasonable to ask him to move on, but I like to believe that everyone can improve, just as I believe not everyone wants to improve. In my career I've seen developers who were 'average' become way above average after their boss left. This was due to the weird psychological box their manager had managed to get them pinned int…

A friend of mine who is now a VC told me about dogs which were put into a box where anything they did caused the floor to shock them. Eventually they just lay on the floor quivering. This sounds horrible and cruel (and it is) and sadly I've seen managers do the same things to their people. Every time they try to do something they get yelled at, and never with any guidance just a "don't do that again!" sort of shock from the floor. Eventually they can't do anything.

This was a study done by Seligman et al and is known as a psychological phenomenon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learned_helplessness

Scarily, even mentioning this brings flashbacks of when I was part of an entire team that was ruined by it. The pattern that emerged was that a particular senior architect who had the ear of management was perceived as the 10X contributor, even though the misdirection and hostility from him reduced the rest of the team to 1/10 productivity. Most of the other developers were entirely capable but realized the complete futility of their efforts in the face of this kind of management.

Re: There are no 10x developers, but there are 1/10 ones

#55
post #43

I'm not a 10x programmer. Probably will never be. I do know of programmers who not only are slower in shipping, but are very bad at designing coherent programs and data structures. That's my main observation. It's not that I'm X times better, its that they are X times slower and make poor design choices. Why? My experience has shown that this tends to happen with people who stop keeping up to date and stop learning.…

I feel I am in the same boat as you. I belive myself to be a very average (possibly less so) developer. Even believing that I cannot understand the amount of crap I have been forced to rewrite because it simply does not work. Just recently a expensive contractor was brought in to write a series of simple CRUD screens using .NET MVC and KendoUI. It appeared to work, but if you even scratched the surface you quickly di…

Absolutely. The parts that really bugs me is when I take on bi challenges. My biggest challenge so far has been building Nuuton. It took me months of thinking and reasoning the data flow and structures. On top of that, I had to pick which language fit the problem, rather which problem fit the language. My original choice was Lisp, because it allowed me to create DSLs. Something that would have really helped in building each individual sub-system. But at the same time, Lisp is not as simple to pick as it should. It has libraries, and an amazing amount of data ready to be researched. Yet, it does not seem (to me) as complete, in terms of libraries and community, as Python. Which was my second choice. Python has all of the libraries I needed. Sure, I had to play by Python's rules, but libraries and frameworks like Django really do save development time.

Them, I had to research the options available within Python that would allow for the architecture I had designed. Every sub-system is simply a black box that reads/returns data in a standard format. From the crawlers, to the data store, to the actual web app, everything is simply an API. Ultimately, I chose the Django rest-framework, because it had a lot of features built into it. Thing like authentication, a permissions system, throttling, and so on. Those were things I did not have to write. A simple set of Models/Views and I was off. With Lisp, I would have had to write that, and end up with a code base that would not have been as good as that one.

Nuuton is huge, in terms of sub-systems. But small at the same time. Everything is divided neatly, and is very simple to follow. The queue sub-system that handles requests/responses from the crawlers is very simple to follow. Plus you can actually see how the data is collected, cleaned, formatted, analyzed, stored, served, and modified.

But I'm not a rockstar, cowboy, or even great. I'm average.But worse is that I have this inherent thought that I will never become any better. Even though years ago I was writing Visual Basic apps (you know the type). This due to how much I struggle. Every day I have to research some class, or some method. Can it do that? What's parameters does it take? Does it fit the design? And sometimes I just write the damn thing and end up throwing it out because I realize it is too complicated. I also understand that I will always struggle. But I will never quit. Do rockstars struggle? Do the people that graduate MIT and go on to work on Google struggle? I don't know. Maybe if they do, they dont struggle as much as me. Guess thats the difference. Average struggles a lot, rockstars not so much. Yet I know thats bullshit. Who am I to question my own insecurities?

Re: There are no 10x developers, but there are 1/10 ones

#58

It doesn't take much time wasted on Twitter, HN, or chatting up co-workers of the opposite sex to turn into a 1/10x developer

So are you saying if you are a man, that talking to a woman makes you a 1/10x developer? Or am I missing something?

Re: There are no 10x developers, but there are 1/10 ones

#59
post #49

These discussions are worse than useless. People with made-up numbers confront people with unreliable anecdotes. Productivity means, very simply, an average of X widgets per hour. Does such a measure even exist for developers? The discussion can apply to such varied situations as: - how fast can a developer add new features to a system they built themselves - how fast can they add features to a system designed by som…

> So I would venture that, for any pair of moderately experienced developers, it's almost always possible to find a pair of tasks such that one of them is twice (or even ten times) as fast as the other.

I completely disagree. The FizzBuzz syndrome is very real: when I do developer screenings, the majority of candidates simply can't program even tiny problems. There's no way they're faster than anybody on my team at any development-related task. And yet, they all have long resumes and a lot of experience. All those people are working someplace. And I've watched these 1/10 developers at work: they copy/paste lots of code, program through trial and error, and spend most of their time in the debugger. Eventually, stuff gets done, but excruciatingly slowly.

Once you reach a certain level of competence, then I think what you're saying is true. But there's a huge number of developers who don't reach that level.

On the other hand, I agree with you about this article. Some sort of insight on where this dev spent his time might have been interesting. Whenever I read things this vague, articles based on vague impressions rather than any hard metrics, I'm left wondering which side was actually incompetent here. Maybe this was one of the 1/10 CTOs, completely incapable of effectively communicating with people who don't fit his favored personality type. And if the feature the dev was working on was replaced with something else that only took 30 minutes to implement, maybe the original design was simply unworkable.

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