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A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

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Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#211

Post by Jach »

thebooktocome wrote: post #197
Jach wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Robin Hanson puts the probability around 5%: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.ht... The "non-zero" argument can be fixed simply by comparing relative likelihoods, or noting that while one can't ever rationally believe with 0% probability, you can use epsilon as a substitute for "it's more than 0 but I can't measure how much because it's so small". Personally I think there's enough evidence to…

Hanson's estimate is no better than the Drake equation. Everyone assigns different numbers to the various probabilities, multiplies them together, and gets a different result.

Sure, though the more important part of the exercise is the analysis. Same thing with the Drake Equation. And in both cases the terms aren't immune to new information, nor can you expect to honestly get away with assigning anything you want. You might have a different list of criteria or different probabilities, but the point is to lay them down and give a reason why you think it's unlikely enough not to pay the small sum of money. It also lets others argue with you over your estimates, because they might have information you don't, now or in future years. Several of Hanson's criteria can have their probabilities increase towards 1 or decrease towards 0 depending on what humanity does in the coming years.

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#212

Post by nawitus »

mikeash wrote: post #132
nawitus wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So your argument is that until it's "proven" that we can cryopreserve and then restore brains, the probability of success is zero? If you agree that the probability is non-zero, then you agree with the cryopreservation advocates. In addition, if you agree that it's non-zero, you must agree that it's better than doing nothing (which clearly has a zero chance of revival). Cryopreservation advocates do not claim that th…

"Cryopreservation advocates do not claim that the process is proven to be work, they claim that the chance may be small, but it's non-zero." They implicitly claim that not only is the chance non-zero, but that it's large enough to be worth the opportunity cost of actually freezing people. I agree that a non-zero chance seems obvious, but this claim definitely does not, and needs a lot more substantiation than there a…

That's a good point.

You can look it this way: life after rewarming can last for hundreds of years, easily a thousand as medical technology will have advanced at that point. People are currently willing to pay $100k in medical bills to extend their life by about one year with 50% chance, which means that the cost is $200k per year.

Cryopreservation also costs about $100k (slightly more in real life I guess, I'm rounding numbers for simplicity).

If cryopreservation has a 1% of success to extend life by 1000 years for $100k, then they will "buy" 1 year for $10k. Of course, you can change the numbers (in any direction), e.g. 100 years of life would come out to $100k per year, still cheaper than what most people are willing to pay today to live slightly longer. The 1% success rate is rather pessimistic, too.

If you take quality of life into consideration, the argument starts to favour cryonics quite heavily (we can assume that life is a lot better in the future thanks to advancement of technology).

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#213

Post by hyperbovine »

bluetshirt wrote: post #190
engtech wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, more money is needed. 41% of deaths are due to cancer. It really is one of the biggest problems we have as a species and we should spend more effort on it rather than the things we do spend effort on. But I wholeheartedly agree that rather than trying to be a billg and earn money to fund philanthropy, the world needs more researchers.

People are going to die. If it's not cancer, it'll be heart failure. I'm not convinced that what this world needs is research into keeping sick people alive longer. We have lots of people as it is.

You must be quite young. Come talk to me in ten years.

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#214

Post by jbattle »

swombat wrote: post #182
limmeau wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you recommend as a first book to read? (edit: never mind, sibling thread has it covered: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5485695 )

If you LOVE science fiction already, I'd go straight for the jugular and start with Excession. It's hardcore, it's full of awesome technology, it will blow your mind and forever seduce you into the world of the Culture. If you're just a normal science fiction fan, start with Use of Weapons. It's complex and sci-fi-ish enough, but not as hardcore as Excession. The plot is amazing. To me it is one of the most memorable…

Thanks for this - I read Consider Phlebas and was very underwhelmed by it. Just now I struggled to remember much of the plot even though I read it less than a year ago. I'll check out some of your other recommendations.

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#215

Post by gommm »

defen wrote: post #196
venus wrote: post #44

This is horrible news. We are all poorer today, all of us. Banks is an inspiration to all who read him - of what could be, what can be, what is to be. Cancer has claimed a terrible toll in my life. Three in my immediate family and counting, the countdown very fast for one of them. And now it seems to have turned its unwelcome gaze to my intellectual treasures. I hate this disease, I despise it so much it's hard to ex…

What is "the 300"? The only thing I can think of is the movie/comic book but I don't see how that ties in to cancer research.

The 300 is this http://www.mfoundation.org/index.php?pagename=mj_donations_t... It's a fund raising scheme by the Methuselah Foundation where everyone pledges to give at least $100/month for the next 25 years.

Not sure why the OP says it turned out to be useless (haven't followed much the Methuselah Foundation lately)

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#216

Post by SoftwareMaven »

adventured wrote: post #143
SoftwareMaven wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except diseases like cancer are almost exclusive to "western" society. The more affluent we become, the more cancer and other non-contagious diseases we get. We are killing ourselves and it starts with the stuff our mothers eat, is made worse by what we eat, and is topped of by the environment we live in.

Cancer isn't even remotely exclusive to western society. You don't think there's a cancer cost to the fact that 36% of Japanese men smoke? In Japan, their cancer rate per 100,000 is 1/4 lower than in the US, but that isn't close to the claimed exclusivity. 220 per 100k in Japan versus 300 per 100k in the US. In S.Korea, it's 260 per 100k, for a mere 13% variance. How come the Chinese live seven years less than the su…

Your right. I shouldn't have said "exclusive". I shouldn't be posting when I'm sick. Mea culpa.

Instead, what I should have said is, cancer rates are significantly higher in "western" countries and certain kinds of cancers have seen dramatic increases, such as breast cancer[1] and prostate cancer[2], as countries have "westernized". As countries westernize, rates of these cancers increase.

1. http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/...

2. http://www.healthandenvironment.org/prostate_cancer/peer_rev...

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#217

Post by Suitov »

jeffheard wrote: post #78

Two of my favorite authors now... Three if you count that some people consider K.J. Parker to be a pseudonym of Iain (M) Banks. My two favorites of his I think will always be Use of Weapons and Look to Windward. Coincidentally, I just started re-reading Excession last night.

KJ? A pseudonym of Iain? I reckon she'd be highly amused at that...

"For example, I don't much enjoy reading Iain M. Banks, simply because his world-view and mine don't coincide much; but I’ve learned an enormous amount from his masterful use of structure and language." -- KJ Parker (http://www.orbitbooks.net/interview/k-j-parker/)

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#218

Post by mryan »

mryan wrote: post #154
nawitus wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You might as well argue that nano-bots will be able to reanimate a body that has decomposed, and save money on all the freezing equipment. Perhaps that will be the case if given enough time, but we seem to be a long way away from that technology. No, you might not as well argue that. If you think you can, then please argue how you can retrive information from a completely decomposed brain. On the other hand, it's pr…

alphaoverlord understands the point I was making. Both of these things are impossible, at the current level of tech. One or both of them might become possible through the use of sufficiently advanced technology. > On the other hand, it's pretty reasonable to assume that a cryopreserved brain preserves a lot of the information in the brain. See, I don't think it's reasonable to assume this. I believe that both of thes…

nawitus, I can't reply to your other comment, which is probably a good thing :-)

You are taking me literally, when you shouldn't - I was being flippant. Of course it is unlikely we will ever make the technology that can take the dust that, decades ago, used to make up a human brain, and somehow retrieve information from it.

The point I am making is that you said:

> On the other hand, it's pretty reasonable to assume that a cryopreserved brain preserves a lot of the information in the brain.

I flippantly argued that if your argument is "it's reasonable to assume science will solve the problem for us", you could apply that to essentially anything.

It used to be reasonable to assume that the world is flat, or that the world was the center of the universe.

I do not think we will somehow invent a machine that turns dust in to a working brain.

I do think that "it's reasonable to assume" is faulty logic when talking about something that is beyond the current reach of science, and should be questioned at every possible opportunity.

Now, you might say "but Mike, I provided links that back up my assumption" - and if that's the case, you are no longer "reasonably assuming" that this is true, but basing your belief of the scientific literature that outlines how such a thing is done. :)

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#219

Post by [deleted] »

swombat wrote: post #182
limmeau wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you recommend as a first book to read? (edit: never mind, sibling thread has it covered: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5485695 )

If you LOVE science fiction already, I'd go straight for the jugular and start with Excession. It's hardcore, it's full of awesome technology, it will blow your mind and forever seduce you into the world of the Culture. If you're just a normal science fiction fan, start with Use of Weapons. It's complex and sci-fi-ish enough, but not as hardcore as Excession. The plot is amazing. To me it is one of the most memorable…

[deleted]

Re: A Personal Statement from Iain Banks

#220

Post by creamyhorror »

venus wrote: post #44

This is horrible news. We are all poorer today, all of us. Banks is an inspiration to all who read him - of what could be, what can be, what is to be. Cancer has claimed a terrible toll in my life. Three in my immediate family and counting, the countdown very fast for one of them. And now it seems to have turned its unwelcome gaze to my intellectual treasures. I hate this disease, I despise it so much it's hard to ex…

I completely empathise. I have a personal hatred of cancer as well.

First Terry Pratchett and now Iain Banks. Satoshi Kon, taken by pancreatic cancer. Who's left? Why are all my favourite artists dying from this horrible family of diseases?

Fuck cancer, and damn our perverse incentives. All you hackers and entrepreneurs, please make all the money you can and do something to advance the combined well-being of the world and people like yourself. All that saved-up money can hardly do anything when a serious cancer strikes hard and we find out too late. Please do something to support the research that could save so many of your family and friends.

All the pleasures of the world cannot cancel out the loss and desolation of an early death. Our time is short; let's not let it be cut shorter.

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