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Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

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Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#581
post #364
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deflation increases the value of holding cash. By definition deflation occurs when the price of a basket of goods decreases. Why invest your money in a basket of goods today when it is going to be cheaper to buy that same basket tomorrow?

Why buy a smartphone when next year's smartphone will be better in every way?

Because next year's smartphone will be too large to fit in your pocket, and will make you look like this:

http://www.mp4nation.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Ano...

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Get your facts straight. Have you ever read a CPI report? Do you even know how the CPI is calculated? Here's the list of CPI weights. ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiri2010.txt Food: 14.792% Housing: 41.460% Fuel: 5.079% Energy (included inside of "housing category"): 5.096% If you're curious, you can further subdivide that into milk and eggs. But the list becomes way too unwieldy at that point. The ave…

According to wikipedia: "The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and energy prices are widely thought to be subject to large changes that often fail to persist and do not represent relative price cha…

So... what does "Core CPI" have to do with anything? I have never used that value in my argument, and have instead preferred CPI-U and CPI-W. These CPI are used for Social Security, Minimum Wage calculations, and so forth.

You're creating the ultimate strawman. You're ignoring the statistics I've presented (statistics using "real" CPI which include food values), and then criticizing statistics that I'm not using. Why don't you read my argument?

Second, even including food prices / energy prices, there were periods of deflation through 2008. Yes, I lived through those periods, do you know what happened to bond investments during that time? I got something like a 20% gain during that period of deflation while the rest of the market crashed.

Anyway, this is the free market. You can continue to invest into Gold if you think its best! We'll both know the answer in a year, so there's no real need to argue about it.

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you seriously trying to say Bitcoin has more value than a multi-billion dollar consumer company? Lol.

Not just any multi billion dollar consumer company, a descending and overvalued one that never really contributed anything I see as particularly worthwhile at any rate.

That's your opinion. Many people disagree. Bitcoin hasn't contributed more to society than Apple. The wide adoption of the mouse, GUI and multitouch screens are just a few.

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#584
post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck. You're swimming against a tide of people minted from education with the mindset of deflation bad, inflation good. Of course, everyone likes deflation when it means they can buy more for less. Of course, if prices of things get so low that people start to purchase, then deflation will eventually reverse, unless you assume that deflation will continue forever until prices reach zero and everything is free. O…

> "In fact we see deflation in specific markets like housing which helps to clear out the bad decisions and mistakes and set the base for future expansion." Periods of asset deflation after over-investment/economic distortions may act as a balance, but it isn't "good". Having your net worth halved is crippling. > "The simple fact is that no economy and social order has ever imploded due to deflation" No economy implo…

> Having your net worth halved is crippling.

"Having your net worth halved" happens in the inflation scenario. Deflation increases your net worth.

If you have $10,000 and there's inflation, then eventually it will only buy half as much stuff. If you have $10,000 and there's deflation, then eventually it will buy twice as much.

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#585
post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why buy a smartphone when next year's smartphone will be better in every way?

Because you want to use your smartphone. Smartphones are a horrible investment and you really shouldn't buy one if you're planning on storing it in the basement in its original packaging.

In 30-200 years, they'll probably be a great investment. How many original iPhones will be left? It'll be a priceless piece of history.

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#586
post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deflation would refer to the value of the same good. Obviously new smartphones are pitched as "new, improved" goods, and marketing sways consumers to get the latest and greatest. Not so for staples.

Well, you buy staples now because you need them now to survive.

I'm actually more of a paperclip person myself. I haven't stapled anything in years, and I've survived just fine.

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#587
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a few replies here that seem to be reacting negatively to the OP due to the tone of the submission instead of the content. To be clear, deflation is categorically bad for a currency. It's terrible, like great depression terrible. The reason it's bad is that deflation makes it more profitable to do nothing than to invest. When this happens, people react by not spending money. The market dies. While inflation…

This is part of the issue. The other part is that no one has any incentive to spend money, which can cause a recession. You can either 100 units of something today, or buy 110 units of it tomorrow. This gives you a very strong incentive to wait and not spend money. This means that no one buys anything, so no one needs to make or manufacture anything. People lose their jobs, so they don't have money, so they can't buy…

> no one has any incentive to spend money

> This means that no one buys anything

Think about technology. Every day, the cost of a new computer drops by $0.27 on average, let us say, or about $100 per year. Last year's models have a $100 discount, three-year-old machines have a $300 discount, five-year-old or older machines are bargain basement or even negative value (you have to pay someone to haul them away for recycling).

Every day, your money increases relative to the value of computers. Every day, when you wake up, you face an economic choice: You could buy that new machine today, and have it today, or you could buy it tomorrow, and have the new machine and $0.27 left in your pocket.

By your logic, everyone would always choose to postpone buying a computer.

Yet people buy new computers all the time, and have for several decades. How can you explain that? It's a real deflationary market that doesn't have this problem.

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does TICOM have to do with anything? A 51% attack is a possibility, and might be currently possible with the largest botnets known to exist today, but it would be pushing it. In future it becomes even more difficult.

That is exactly the sort of argument the Germans made: that Enigma had known cryptographic flaws, but that they did not think anyone would actually expend the effort needed to attack it. You are saying that Bitcoin has a known flaw, but that nobody is going to amass the computing power needed to exploit that flaw. That is a bad way to approach security. It is not just about botnets (CPU "mining" is pretty slow); what…

It would be nice if there were a way of solving the double-spending problem that would make all attacks infeasible. But since there isn't, we need to make do with the options we have: to place trust in either a pre-chosen authority, or a defined majority we assume to be trustworthy.

Not all the tools we have for maintaining security are as good as public key encryption or symmetric encryption. In the world of bricks and mortar, $10 million buys you a lot of criminal clout. Is a safe deposit box safe against a determined attacker with that budget? Are all employees immune to million dollar bribes?

The law attempts to redress imbalances by making it difficult to get away with circumventing security to perpetrate financial crimes. The problem is not so much stealing from a bank, but getting away with it after the fact. The same problem applies to bitcoin if you want to execute a 51% attack; double-spending is financial fraud, after all.

Buying up $10 million worth of ASICs is relatively straightforward, but doing so in a way that can't be traced back to you is substantially more difficult. As well as the problem of trying to run that amount of hardware in secret, without a paper-trail, you'll also have problems in trying to convert any profits you make from the scheme back into fiat currency.

If one merely wanted to demonstrate the attack without profitting from it, then one could double-spend a small amount between accounts you own, in the same way that one could demonstrate an attack on a safe by buying one and then drilling into it. But that doesn't change the fact that there's a big difference between circumventing security, and illegally profitting from it without consequences.

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#589
post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "I hear this argument a lot, but no nation that we know of has ever collapsed because of deflation, right?" And which have collapsed from inflation? None, directly. Hyperinflation (and deflation) is an effect of an economy collapsing. Not a cause. From Wiki: "Hyperinflation is often associated with wars, their aftermath, sociopolitical upheavals, or other crises that make it difficult for the government to tax the…

A curious retelling of history. The Weimar Republic intentionally inflated their currency to reduce the WW1 reparations payments, which got out of control and reduced the value of the Mark to nothing. Inflationary policies collapsed the tax base due to destroying the ability of the economy to function normally, not the other way around. This is easily shown by the fact that as soon as the Weimar Republic re-introduce…

>A curious retelling of history.

By you, perhaps.

Economic crisis, couldn't pay the bills, so they inflated the currency. Just like I said. Are you really going to argue that there was no war or aftermath, social upheaval or other crisis (like, say, debilitating war reparations) that led to hyperinflation? Crisis comes first.

So often Wiemar Germany is trotted out as the example of what can happen when the government prints excessively. "It can happen to you! Wheel-barrows full of money to buy bread!" The reality, the country and its economy was in shambles. Not because of inflation.

Your turn: point to an economy that was happily chugging along, and hyperinflation came out of nowhere and took it down.

Re: Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

#590
post #584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "In fact we see deflation in specific markets like housing which helps to clear out the bad decisions and mistakes and set the base for future expansion." Periods of asset deflation after over-investment/economic distortions may act as a balance, but it isn't "good". Having your net worth halved is crippling. > "The simple fact is that no economy and social order has ever imploded due to deflation" No economy implo…

> Having your net worth halved is crippling. "Having your net worth halved" happens in the inflation scenario. Deflation increases your net worth. If you have $10,000 and there's inflation, then eventually it will only buy half as much stuff. If you have $10,000 and there's deflation, then eventually it will buy twice as much.

>""Having your net worth halved" happens in the inflation scenario. Deflation increases your net worth."

Interesting. We've been in a positive inflation environment since I've been born, and my net worth has increased exponentially.

Deflation will increase the purchasing power of your money due to the fall in prices, but decrease the value of assets you own priced in that currency. Something people seem to be forgetting around here are that wages also fall during deflation, and that results in lower purchasing power and unemployment. Your "work" isn't worth as much anymore. You get paid less. Good deal!

What happened when the housing bubble collapsed and there was massive deflation in home prices? Did those people get wealthier? Did it become easier for other people to spend their dollars on homes at the new low prices? The answer is no and no.

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