Does anyone think someone extending this to place trades via API would be that horrible of an idea? Seems like it'd be interesting.
Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
21–30 of 53 posts
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#22Whenever I hear of an amateur built trading system, the first question that always comes to mind is: What's your risk and money management like?
It's easy to come up with an algorithm, but where the real pro's win is with risk management.
EDIT: This isn't meant to be negative at all. Keep up the good work, but know that you're just starting down the rabbit hole now.
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#23I trade real money on a similar system, but using genetic algorithms. I worked on it for maybe 4 years before putting money on it in 2013. So far, I'm up 1.05% on $284K traded. I wrote my own fairly pessimistic backtester. Also, I currently use the generated models for buy signals, but I tend to sell earlier than they dictate, because I find it hard to turn down even a modest profit.
Out of interest, is that better or worse than you were expecting? You don't say when in 2013 you started, but since the start of the year the S&P is up around 6%, the NASDAQ composite is up 4.5%, and the FTSE All Share is up a similar amount. Assuming you did put the money in in January you would have probably made more profit by simply investing in an index tracker.
True, I'm losing to the market, since January. But 'the market' is unpredictable, unrealized gains on paper. Unless you sell your index tracking positions, you will, in the next couple years, see some nice unrealized losses on paper.
My gains are realized. And fairly predictable.
Also, I only have about $55k in capital. But my rapid buy/sell cycle (not HFT) allows me to keep 'reusing' it.
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#24Expect a letter from a lawyer representing DC Comics demanding you to rename your product. An acquaintance of mine also launched a product (entirely unrelated to comics and toys) with the same name recently and was asked by DC Comics to change the name.
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#25I've toyed with this kind of thing before and things can look good in simulation, until I incorporated realistic effects of: - trading commissions & fees - capital gains taxes - currency exchange (for those of us "unamericans") then all of a sudden blammo, I decided I'm better off putting "investment" cash into my mortgage
Might be a good idea if you are paying 12% interest on your mortgage, but not such a good idea if you're paying 3%.
I don't know what country you're in, but if you want to invest in the US stock market, I'm sure your broker sells an index fund with very low management fees. That may be a better investment than putting everything into a single home in the current market.
(In the US, mortgage interest is tax-deductible, making this strategy even less of a good idea.)
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#26Expect a letter from a lawyer representing DC Comics demanding you to rename your product. An acquaintance of mine also launched a product (entirely unrelated to comics and toys) with the same name recently and was asked by DC Comics to change the name.
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#27Expect a letter from a lawyer representing DC Comics demanding you to rename your product. An acquaintance of mine also launched a product (entirely unrelated to comics and toys) with the same name recently and was asked by DC Comics to change the name.
I am curious, on what basis he was asked to change the name? As per my understand, It is certainly not a trademark infringement, if not belonging to the same business domain.
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#28Writing a framework for running trading strategies is certainly an interesting idea. I too am dissatisfied with most commercial platforms due to lack of features and flexibility. Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of open source code in this sector. Eclipse Trader looked kind of interesting but the project appears to be dormant now. So expanding on this project could fill that gap. However, from experience devel…
Thank you very much for taking the time to write that out - it was incredibly informative!!
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#29I've toyed with this kind of thing before and things can look good in simulation, until I incorporated realistic effects of: - trading commissions & fees - capital gains taxes - currency exchange (for those of us "unamericans") then all of a sudden blammo, I decided I'm better off putting "investment" cash into my mortgage
Might be a good idea if you are paying 12% interest on your mortgage, but not such a good idea if you're paying 3%. I don't know what country you're in, but if you want to invest in the US stock market, I'm sure your broker sells an index fund with very low management fees. That may be a better investment than putting everything into a single home in the current market. (In the US, mortgage interest is tax-deductible…
Mortgage interest not deductible here (Canada). Our current mortgage rate is 3.8% so given marginal taxe rate of 46% I would need to have a guaranteed return of at least 8.3% just to match wha I would save by "investing" in my mortgage. You tell me where I can get a 8.3% return over the next 5 yrs, guaranteed. PS here in Canada (maybe exception is Vancouver) our housing market is v stable, in my City house prices did not even dip during 2008 crisis. Yay Canada!
Re: Show HN: Bateman, a stock trading system I'm working on
#30Henning, If you are going to go some computer optimisation please read Whites reality check, I applaud your effort but I think the trading strategy as described might be too simple unfortunately and historical optimisation can make anything profitable. In an ideal strategy edge would be present do to an extrapolation of platonistic assumptions and optimisation would further tune this rather than produce profits in it…
Wow, I've never seen anyone else who knew about White's reality check. Unfortunately, it is patented (US Patent 5,893,069). There's also a related thing called the test for Superior Predictive Ability (SPA), by Peter Reinhard Hansen, which is not patented (afaik). We liked it better for other reasons as well.