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Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

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Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#11
post #5

I sold at $22 thinking the bubble was going to burst soon. Damnit. There's an understanding that a few big players have a lot of the total amount of bitcoins in circulation. This price must be extremely tempting for them to sell at. That could cause a crash like last time. I would be careful of buying at the current price.

There's also a lot of early bitcoin that has been lost entirely, which probably skews the market a little bit.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#12
If it ever becomes successful, we will marvel that individuals could ever afford a bitcoin. 21 million is a tiny number for a currency when compared to $40 trillion in global currency ($6000 per person).

~$1.25 billion spend on Cyber Monday ~$8 billion are traded for oil every day ~$150 billion NYSE daily

If bitcoin became the trusted currency for any of these activities what would it be worth?

If bitcoin became the global currency we all get 0.003 each, making the upper limit on a bitcoin around $1->2m depending on inflation.

Of course wars will be fought before bitcoin becomes a global currency. I'm also not sure that people really want an inflation proof currency. But it is fun to speculate.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#13
Other noteworthy charts:

Number of bitcoin transactions go from 40,000 to 57,000 per day in 2 months. And from 6,000 to 57,000 in 1 year: http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

The trade vs transaction volume remains relatively stable: http://blockchain.info/charts/tx-trade-ratio (Lower the number = fewer people hoarding.)

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#14
post #12

If it ever becomes successful, we will marvel that individuals could ever afford a bitcoin. 21 million is a tiny number for a currency when compared to $40 trillion in global currency ($6000 per person). ~$1.25 billion spend on Cyber Monday ~$8 billion are traded for oil every day ~$150 billion NYSE daily If bitcoin became the trusted currency for any of these activities what would it be worth? If bitcoin became the…

Just keep dividing it, that's one of the key designs. Work in mini bitcoin, or micro bitcoin, or even single satoshi. There's nothing saying that you have to use full units.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#15
All else being equal, the more people who use Bitcoin (whether as a store of value or medium of exchange), the greater the demand for it -- and therefore the higher its price, because the supply is fixed asymptotically at 21 million bitcoins.

In the long run, Bitcoin's price will be positively correlated with adoption.[1]

--

[1] My thoughts on this haven't changed over the past two years: http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adopt...

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#16
post #12

If it ever becomes successful, we will marvel that individuals could ever afford a bitcoin. 21 million is a tiny number for a currency when compared to $40 trillion in global currency ($6000 per person). ~$1.25 billion spend on Cyber Monday ~$8 billion are traded for oil every day ~$150 billion NYSE daily If bitcoin became the trusted currency for any of these activities what would it be worth? If bitcoin became the…

as someone who has been mining since mid 2011 on a 450 dollar PC...this would make me very happy. I have already done very well on that investment.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#17
post #11
post #5

I sold at $22 thinking the bubble was going to burst soon. Damnit. There's an understanding that a few big players have a lot of the total amount of bitcoins in circulation. This price must be extremely tempting for them to sell at. That could cause a crash like last time. I would be careful of buying at the current price.

There's also a lot of early bitcoin that has been lost entirely, which probably skews the market a little bit.

I feel like I should go on my old laptop and dig up my ~0.5 bitcoins.

I wonder just how many bitcoins have been permanently lost already.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#18
post #5

I sold at $22 thinking the bubble was going to burst soon. Damnit. There's an understanding that a few big players have a lot of the total amount of bitcoins in circulation. This price must be extremely tempting for them to sell at. That could cause a crash like last time. I would be careful of buying at the current price.

Me at $24 by accident (stupid misclick on Mt. Gox, and didn't think paying the trade fee again would be worth it). Wanted to wait till $27, then the socks I bought would have been free. Free, as in, I earned them back.

I do wonder from whom I stole though; these socks cost labor but I did pay the laborer. Then the price rose and I got an equal amount of euros back as I put in. Who did I steal from, the Bitcoin community in general?

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#19
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also a lot of early bitcoin that has been lost entirely, which probably skews the market a little bit.

I feel like I should go on my old laptop and dig up my ~0.5 bitcoins. I wonder just how many bitcoins have been permanently lost already.

Early in the blockchain there are thousands of addresses with a single 50BTC block reward in them. Presumably people downloaded the client, mined a block and got bored. At that time you could only mine using Bitcoin-QT, which reuses the same addresses for each block reward. Most, if not all coins mined in this way are lost forever.
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