I disagree. It's just as easy to set up a simple web app in Rails now as it was then. Rails may have grown in complexity, but it didn't add complexity to the easy thing.
"Sure, Rails itself is straightforward, but the frameworks you slap on top of it can quickly become burdensome abstractions"
I agree. However, I think it's so much easier to avoid these burdensome abstractions if you choose than it was in Spring when it first hit the scene. If you wanted to do something simple, I think it was far easier to write lower level servlet and jdbc code than to get spring mvc, hibernate, and some sort of build too (probably maven) all working together properly.
There were some good efforts. There seemed to be some enthusiasm about Roo, though I didn't find the code generated by Roo anywhere near as easy to work with as Rails code. I thought Play looked promising, though it wasn't enough to get me back to Java once I'd built some momentum with Rails.
A few people have commented that Spring 3 is excellent. It may very well be, and maybe I'll take a look some time, but to say I'm once bitten twice shy is to greatly undercount the number of times I was bitten.