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Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

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Re: Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

#21
post #12

Is it true that Dropbox/AirBNB make up most of YC's (monetary) value? I know they're the big ones, but it still sounds fishy. What about Reddit, for example? Heroku? The company that built Draw Something? (I forget their name). Also, many of the 400 companies who have been through YC are very recent, and simply haven't had a chance to grow as much as Dropbox has. Other than these questions, I think the article does m…

[deleted]

Re: Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

#22
post #12

Is it true that Dropbox/AirBNB make up most of YC's (monetary) value? I know they're the big ones, but it still sounds fishy. What about Reddit, for example? Heroku? The company that built Draw Something? (I forget their name). Also, many of the 400 companies who have been through YC are very recent, and simply haven't had a chance to grow as much as Dropbox has. Other than these questions, I think the article does m…

>The company that built Draw Something? (I forget their name).

OMGPOP

Re: Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

#23
post #4

The article mentions that most of YC's value is in just two companies (Dropbox, AirBNB) out of some 400 funded. That would be awful performance for a traditional VC, but the amount of time and money put in by YC into each of those 400 companies is between 1/100 and 1/1000 of how much a traditional VC would put into a deal. So, if you're comparing to a traditional VC model, compare YC to one that has made e.g. 10 inve…

Apples (VCs) to oranges (seed investors / incubators).

For a VC 2 out of 400 would be spectacularly bad, for an incubator to have 2 winners of that magnitude is actually really good and there are a few others that have already exited (Heroku, YC08 iirc for instance) that increase that even further.

Add in stripe and the current crop of 'hot' stuff and YC is looking pretty good.

But you still can't compare it with a VC, it's a different model, different risk/reward.

Re: Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

#24
What is telling to me is that nobody, not PG or anybody else could have predicted which of the 400 ended up to be billion dollar companies. But for those two that made it to that magical marker being in YC made all the difference.

> And even though most YC companies have no problems raising additional capital, the program has only produced two big “winners.”

The word 'only' has no place in that sentence, it is a pretty good record for early stage investing, and it does not take into account stripe, heroku and others.

Re: Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

#25
I think the biggest problem is not so much the equity that you can lose, but also the time startups lose, especially in many of the newly created accelerators. I have seen founders being obligated to attend 9-5 in poorly designed co-working office-spaces when their own arrangements are much more efficient, having to pitch daily to people that have no impact on your success and having to attend day-long workshops on subjects they already master or are irrelevant to their challenges. In that way I have seen startups join accelerators and wasting a lot of time boosting the accelerators themselves (especially if they are corporate-driven) but decelerating themselves. When it comes to Demoday, there suddenly are few investors and even fewer press. The key thing that new accelerators don't realize is that YC did this for many, many years until their current status quo. Many accelerators think that just by calling a demo-day and showing ten startups that they pumped a total of $500K in, they will be the next YC. If they don't have the track-record yet, they better have 200K of followup cash ready for each startup to show that they really mean it and that their curation process resulted in a meaningful selection.

Re: Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

#26
This is a insightful and interesting article but for a lot of folks I think accelerators are Extremely helpful.

(A) Lot of accelerators are readily accepting foreign companies and entrepreneurs. Helping provide them a base and also help with visa issues. Which would be very tough on their own.

(B) Many of these ideas are not well polished and need to refined further and converted into a viable business. And accelerators also help founders hyper-focus on the product.

With that said if you have a little cash for a few months time, have already started to work on your MVP and have decent connections in the industry. Then working in a co-working space and hacking your product is the best thing to do.

But each case is unique IMHO.

Re: Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

#29
post #14
post #12

Is it true that Dropbox/AirBNB make up most of YC's (monetary) value? I know they're the big ones, but it still sounds fishy. What about Reddit, for example? Heroku? The company that built Draw Something? (I forget their name). Also, many of the 400 companies who have been through YC are very recent, and simply haven't had a chance to grow as much as Dropbox has. Other than these questions, I think the article does m…

1) Yes. It's true of angel investments generally too, the top companies form a disproportionately large percentage of the value. 2) Yes, you basically need to do cohort analysis for meaningful results. 3) It depends what you mean by "most seed accelerators don't matter", certainly there's a big drop-off in quality in startups as you go further down the rankings of seed accelerators and VCs pay less attention to them.…

Yes, it turns out the article is correct (see also frankdenbow's helpful comment below).

Follow-up question/observation: the article makes it see like only Dropbox and AirBNB were "winners", which I understood to mean they were the only 2 that gave YC a return. Here's the quote from the article:

'And even though most YC companies have no problems raising additional capital, the program has only produced two big “winners.” Dropbox and Airbnb make up three quarters of the value of Y Combinator’s $10 billion portfolio. That’s two huge successes out of something like 400 companies.'

Is this only true because Dropbox and Airbnb are spectacularly successful? E.g., if another YC company became the next Google next year, would the article have said "YC has produced only 1 success", and Drobpox/Airbnb would be relegated to "not as good as the Google-sized success"?

Re: Dear awesome startups, don’t join an accelerator, unless…

#30

What is telling to me is that nobody, not PG or anybody else could have predicted which of the 400 ended up to be billion dollar companies. But for those two that made it to that magical marker being in YC made all the difference. > And even though most YC companies have no problems raising additional capital, the program has only produced two big “winners.” The word 'only' has no place in that sentence, it is a pret…

The nature of power-law distributions is that there will be a few exceptional outliers. If you set your definition of what a "big winner" is on those outliers, of course you will only have a few.
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