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Stupid, Stupid xBox

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Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#131
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RROD was much less of a problem than .jp sales, and much more easily fixed.

Y'know, it always seemed intuitively obvious to me that Japanese consumers would not be very receptive to any non-Japan-designed console unless it absolutely smashed the domestic offerings. One needn't chalk this up to xenophobia, but consider the advantage enjoyed by US domestic pickup truck manufacturers...

> it always seemed intuitively obvious to me that Japanese consumers would not be very receptive to any non-Japan-designed console unless

You hear people say this a lot, but based on my experience, it's basically bullshit.

Japanese people love non-Japanese stuff, and indeed, being foreign gives a product cachet.

However, they're also fairly different than American consumers. In particular, they're (1) super picky (in a way that Americans really aren't), about quality, but also style, reputation, etc, (2) not so price-conscious, and (3) maybe a bit more reluctant to take a risk on something unknown.

In the case of the PS2/3 vs. the xbox/360, the PS series had a huge name-recognition / familiarity advantage, and better support by Japanese game makers offering popular series. MS tried to prime the pump by pushing some "Japanese style" games heavily (and paid through the nose for prime placement in shops), but if you're a Japanese gamer who experienced the sheer massive volume of domestic content for the PS series, sticking with it seems pretty sure bet. Moreover, the high price of the PS3 was a bit less of an issue than with very price-conscious Americans.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#132
post #128

The console industry used to sell high-end wedding cakes. Now they sell wedding cakes, some sheet cakes, and occasionally a pre-boxed slice if there are leftovers. These are your only options for snacking in the living room. You order a wedding cake, go pick it up in a few days, and hope it tastes good. They are about to find out what happens when piping hot cookies are hand-delivered in 30 seconds or less to the liv…

I think you are sort of right. I think that maybe apple's console entry could become a bastion of $1, low budget casual games. Not because it couldn't handle the hardcore games market, but because the store will be setup with the same problem all apple stores have of low visibility and freemium garbage dominating the storefront. Also a ton of devs will port their already existing casual freemium stuff to this device. This is partially Apple's fault, but largely it is a problem of the wider market that Apple hits. They hit a ton of non-gamers with their products and those people then use the store and push farmville/zynga poker garbage to the top. Apple could address this with their store but I doubt they will. If they wanted to they already would have by now.

The other issue is that Apple products generally sacrifice usability for style, and in this instance that will probably mean a controller with no real buttons or something ridiculous in that vein.

This is fine and it will probably be successful, but it is not even going to be the same market that the xbox, steam box, or ps4 are hitting.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#133
post #132
post #128

The console industry used to sell high-end wedding cakes. Now they sell wedding cakes, some sheet cakes, and occasionally a pre-boxed slice if there are leftovers. These are your only options for snacking in the living room. You order a wedding cake, go pick it up in a few days, and hope it tastes good. They are about to find out what happens when piping hot cookies are hand-delivered in 30 seconds or less to the liv…

I think you are sort of right. I think that maybe apple's console entry could become a bastion of $1, low budget casual games. Not because it couldn't handle the hardcore games market, but because the store will be setup with the same problem all apple stores have of low visibility and freemium garbage dominating the storefront. Also a ton of devs will port their already existing casual freemium stuff to this device.…

No, it'll be going for a vastly more lucrative market: everyone who is wildly overserved by the existing console market.

Consoles had three decades to break out of niche and they failed. It's time for the final disruption of the living room.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#134
post #119

I see a couple comments here, including the highest voted top level comment, questioning how the xbox can be "crushing" their competition given that a straightforward reading of console sales indicates things aren't so cut and dried. However, the xbox is crushing its competition, in several ways, and let me explain why a naive reading of unit sales is misleading. Many consoles sell at a loss, especially initially, or…

I fully agree. But I think that this is, what the original blog post called: " Touting strategic and market success when you’re just experiencing your competitor’s stumbling failure[...] " The problems of the PS3 where the exotic hardware, the problems of the Wii were the exotic HID. Because of this, Microsoft won this generation, but actually it does not tell us anything about the next generation of consoles. And I…

Oh yes, it very much is, for the most part. Some things MS does which are legitimately better than the competition, and that helps along with in general just making fewer mistakes than Sony/Nintendo.

However, if you look at, say, Valve/Steam vs. Microsoft, especially now that Valve is moving into the console market, that should terrify people at Microsoft. Valve is starting at a disadvantage, but the future of gaming on any platform is digital distribution and they have by far the most experience and the most connections in that area. Most importantly, they have a long history of helping game publishers squeeze the most revenue out of games through sales and promotions. At the end of the day game publishers follow the money (indeed, one could describe that as an almost darwinian process), and the most profitable platforms for 3rd parties are going to be where the development effort and player base will end up coming to rest.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#135

This is a very revealing article: - It gives official confirmation of the (somewhat obvious) idea that the XBox was a defensive move against general living-room entertainment boxes. - It shows that he has a very distorted view of the gaming landscape, if the truly thinks that the XBox is the dominant platform, or that mobile games are a genuine threat to console gaming (they most certainly are not). - He singles out…

he also left Microsoft 14 years ago, 2 years before xbox has shipped.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#136

I see a couple comments here, including the highest voted top level comment, questioning how the xbox can be "crushing" their competition given that a straightforward reading of console sales indicates things aren't so cut and dried. However, the xbox is crushing its competition, in several ways, and let me explain why a naive reading of unit sales is misleading. Many consoles sell at a loss, especially initially, or…

It's very interesting to take this spot-on assessment of the game console industry and compare it to the mobile phone industry. Microsoft and Apple are dominating in very similar ways when it comes to gaming consoles (Microsoft) and mobile (Apple). Yet Microsoft hasn't been able to replicate this winning strategy with its own phones. It seems to me that if one department at Micrsoft is "killing it", it would be Xbox.…

If there's one division at Microsoft that's killing it, it would be server and tools, which at $5.2 billion (latest Q) in sales is nearly as big as the Windows division now (and within 4 to 8 quarters - as the Windows 8 bumper dies down - will probably surpass it).

The $20 billion / year in sales server and tools does, is three times the size of the XBox + Live group.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#137
To add to OP's usability gripes, as a new Xbox owner (bought it over Christmas) with a grand total of 4 bundled games and a Kinect:

Kinect menu interaction needs to be improved. Kinect Adventures has it right for its age group, showing a full mirror image of the user on its menus, but Kinect Sports is a mess of deeply nested menus, which my 4 year old, who has been able to navigate an iPad since age 2, can't get right yet. Dance Central uses an un-intuitive swipe from right-to-left, that took a while for me to figure out. I suppose controllerless UX is still in its infancy, but still...

Then we get to the sign in system: the sign-in, sign-out is very confusing, and in Kinect Sports, almost useless - I never know who the second player is going to be. I also have a very weak mental model of how Kinect ID facial recognition works -at what point are you signed into a game?

I still don't really understand XBox Live vs XBox Live Gold. Why should I subscribe for utility apps I already have, or to use a clunky web browser?

Oh yes, and no NTFS support, on a Microsoft platform.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#138
post #21
post #7

"how it is crushing its original console competitors" Previous gen: > Xbox sales: 24 million > PS2 sales: 153 million Current gen: > Xbox 360 sales: 76 million > Wii sales: 100 million > PS3 sales: 70 million (all data from each console's respective Wikipedia) How is it "crushing" its competitors? Otherwise, I bought an XBox360 recently to get the Kinect for openFrameworks hacking and played a little bit with the con…

Nobody seems to remember just how much money Microsoft and Sony have lost on their consoles. - Through 2005, the Xbox gaming division had lost over $4 billion [1] - Microsoft took a charge of $1 billion dollars on its June 2007 income statement to account for the cost of replacing bricked Xbox 360s [1] - Xbox 360 and PS3 losses total $8 billion [2] Luckily for Microsoft, they've had the cash to burn to strong-arm the…

This is a very moot issue at this point. The $850+ million the Live division is now minting every quarter guarantees a strong profit base going forward for the Xbox.

Their strategy worked brilliantly, and none of their competition has such a strong competitive advantage. Does it matter that it was expensive to acquire all those Live subscribers? No it does not. They made a huge bet on the future, and they had obscene amounts of cash available to do so.

While Sony has spent the last few years trying not to go bankrupt, Microsoft is sitting on nearly $70 billion in cash. While Sony can't make a profit, Microsoft is generating $6+ billion per quarter. Microsoft can afford to make long term bets; Sony cannot easily replicate that approach.

If the PS4 isn't successful, Sony is done in the console business. Given Microsoft's failure in tablets and smart phones, you can bet they'll spend whatever it takes to keep the XBox relevant in the living room.

The latest Nintendo console is going to be a flop (on par with the GameCube), leaving only the PS4 as real competition in traditional console gaming. Microsoft will widen its Live advantage over Sony & Nintendo accordingly, becoming one of the few subscriber kings (along with Apple, Amazon, Netflix).

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#139

He has a massive point -- " Why can’t I write a game for xBox tomorrow using $100 worth of tools and my existing Windows laptop and test it on my home xBox or at my friends’ houses ". I am wiling to guess that game development will follow the path of app stores. Consoles like the OUYA [1] will start to take over. The cycle from development to distribution will be cut by orders of magnitude. xBox needs to get on it an…

The OUYA is going to fail spectacularly. It won't even dent the market.

Why? Because it's going to be an inferior product with an inferior ecosystem that no average gamer is going to trust to stick around. People stick with what they know and have liked in the past, unless you give them a very substantial reason to change direction (positive or negative).

Some people want OUYA to succeed, but that's not reason enough for it to.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#140
post #128

The console industry used to sell high-end wedding cakes. Now they sell wedding cakes, some sheet cakes, and occasionally a pre-boxed slice if there are leftovers. These are your only options for snacking in the living room. You order a wedding cake, go pick it up in a few days, and hope it tastes good. They are about to find out what happens when piping hot cookies are hand-delivered in 30 seconds or less to the liv…

None of that is going to happen.

Apple is horrific at the gaming business, and that isn't going to change any time soon. Why? Because it's not a priority, and isn't going to be any time soon.

The substantial infrastructure pieces that Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo have built up in gaming - Apple has none of that, and it isn't going to magically appear. Apple would have to make gaming a top priority, and they will never do that.

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