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'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

theaustralian.com.au

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Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#81

Post by caf »

Volpe wrote: post #6

Why is it wrong that NK do Nuclear testing? I agree NK has some human rights issues, that should be addressed, but testing nuclear weapons is no different to Pakistan or India, and there are no sanctions against them.

Pakistan and India were sanctioned after their tit-for-tat round of nuclear testing in 1998: http://articles.cnn.com/1998-06-18/world/9806_18_india.pakis...

Furthermore, as a member of the United Nations, North Korea has agreed to abide by binding decisions of the Security Council; UNSC resolution 1718 demands that North Korea not conduct any further nuclear test. This resolution was adopted under Chapter VII, meaning that the UNSC has identified North Korea's nuclear testing as a threat to the peace.

http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/1718%2...

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#82

Post by SoftwareMaven »

niggler wrote: post #70
SoftwareMaven wrote: post #18

My father-in-law was a VP in Northrop Grumman's space and satellite division. The kinds of projects he worked on were space defense satellites. When he looked at all the uncertainty in the world (much caused at least indirectly by the US), his biggest fear was and continues to be North Korea. Given the types of people I know he met with, this test does not fill me with warm fuzzies.

" his biggest fear was and continues to be North Korea." Can you go into why? The sentiment runs at odds with Bush's obsession with Iraq/Iran.

It really comes down to the country's leadership. All of the other points in other comments here are certainly valid, but he feels that NK's leaders are more likely to be willing to push the button and the US is in range.

What I can't say is if this belief in NK's leaders is based on actual intelligence or some sort or just his opinion. Given their willingness to take pot-shots at SK, I know I'm concerned about this.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#83

Post by streptomycin »

niggler wrote: post #70
SoftwareMaven wrote: post #18

My father-in-law was a VP in Northrop Grumman's space and satellite division. The kinds of projects he worked on were space defense satellites. When he looked at all the uncertainty in the world (much caused at least indirectly by the US), his biggest fear was and continues to be North Korea. Given the types of people I know he met with, this test does not fill me with warm fuzzies.

" his biggest fear was and continues to be North Korea." Can you go into why? The sentiment runs at odds with Bush's obsession with Iraq/Iran.

The Axis of Evil included North Korea along with those two countries.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#84

Post by Turing_Machine »

redthrowaway wrote: post #77
ISL wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran is not presently capable of flattening a city the size of Seoul on a few moments' notice. Different situation, different response.

Neither is NK. They could wreak some havok with conventional weapons, but their last two nuclear tests were 1 & 2 kt, respectively. That's enough to take out a couple city blocks, with a fireball about 100 ft across. Couple that with the fact they can barely get a missile to go into the sky without blowing up, let alone land where they want it to, and NK's nuclear threat is pretty minimal. They'd cause far more damag…

"Wreak some havoc" is a gross understatement.

Look into how much artillery they can bring to bear on Seoul (they have the world's largest artillery force, and Seoul is only 35 miles from the border).

That's what the OP was talking about, not nukes.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#85

Post by InclinedPlane »

arcadeparade wrote: post #78
InclinedPlane wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you kidding me? The DPRK is one of the most horrific regimes in the last 2 centuries, and that includes the Nazis and the Stalinist Soviet Union. Of all the regimes that can't be trusted with nuclear weapons they are pretty much at the top of the list.

The USA has nuclear weapons in South Korea, and they are the only country to actually use them. If they withdrew then maybe the two Koreas could negotiate peace.

WARNING: in this post I am going to be an "asshole", I make no apologies.

I am going to make this bold prediction: you are utterly ignorant of North Korean history, even in broad strokes. And this has allowed you to form utterly irrational and indeed insane opinions of that country.

Please stop commenting about the subject until you correct your ignorance.

Or do you wish to challenge my assumptions by producing extensive evidence that you are actually in fact supremely well informed about the North Korean regime and its history?

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#86

Post by yk »

cpeterso wrote: post #58
mikegioia wrote: post #5

So when they did this in 2006, the UN issued weapons sanctions against North Korea[1]. Then when they did it again in 2009, the UN issued more sanctions[2] that apparently NK considered an 'act of war'. From them, the world has intercepted a whopping 6 North Korean boats and 1 North Korean airplane. Aside from "issuing even more sanctions" what options are available to the UN? Good luck trying to send in a team of pe…

What is North Korea's motivation? Given the UN's predicable past responses, North Korea must gain some political benefit from these UN responses.

NK argues that their regime is superior to all other regimes and prosperity would come any day now. Therefore asking for humanitarian aid would contradict their propaganda. On the other hand, as long as they are the worst of the bad, they have natural allies, like Iran, Myanmar and any other 'bad guy of the week.' In addition they can realistically only sell ballistic missiles and nuclear technology, since they do not produce much interesting stuff besides WMDs.

So the NK government has the choice between pushing nuclear technology and missiles, which kind of works in the short run, or they can throw all their previous work in this areas away to start a rather complicated transition to a more long term strategy. Depending on how stable the regime is, it may survive the short term problems such a change of strategy creates.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#87

Post by jasonwatkinspdx »

dba7dba wrote: post #48
ISL wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran is not presently capable of flattening a city the size of Seoul on a few moments' notice. Different situation, different response.

N Korea can NOT flatten Seoul in a few moments' notice because of the following: 1) Seoul is a HUGE city. 2) N Korea actually doesn't have UNlimited number of artillery tubes capable of reaching Seoul. There are hundreds (maybe a few thousand) tubes but these are heavy ones, meaning they would be lucky to get off a shot every few minutes. And they would have to be concentrated in a relatively small area near DMZ to r…

There are some very detailed writeups of PRNK's ability to damage Seoul based on open sources around on the web. The short summary is that 'flatten in a few moments' may be an exaggeration, but they do present a very real and very large threat.

They do have a fair number of dug in artillery installations that could survive several airstrikes. The basic template of these installations are bunkers under mountaintops that artillery can move rapidly in and out of. So instead of shoot and scoot more like shoot and turtle up. They may have limited resources, but the PRNK does appear to know how to deploy them quite effectively. Chemical shelling is a particular concern.

It's not that the PRNK would win an outright war, it's that they could extract a massacre no one else wants.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#88

Post by niggler »

streptomycin wrote: post #83
niggler wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" his biggest fear was and continues to be North Korea." Can you go into why? The sentiment runs at odds with Bush's obsession with Iraq/Iran.

The Axis of Evil included North Korea along with those two countries.

If I recall correctly, the Bush administration's list of countries in the Axis of Evil, sorted by perceived evil from most to least evil, was :

1) Iran

2) Iraq

3) North Korea

North Korea was not the top threat at the time.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#89

Post by Turing_Machine »

zensavona wrote: post #63

These kinds of "you guys can't have nukes because they're bad, but we'll keep some on hand because we're responsible" disputes that the USA seems to love force me think "where are all the adults?"

Where are all the adults?

Not equating North Korea or Iran with Western democracies, that's for sure.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#90

Post by niggler »

SoftwareMaven wrote: post #82
niggler wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" his biggest fear was and continues to be North Korea." Can you go into why? The sentiment runs at odds with Bush's obsession with Iraq/Iran.

It really comes down to the country's leadership. All of the other points in other comments here are certainly valid, but he feels that NK's leaders are more likely to be willing to push the button and the US is in range. What I can't say is if this belief in NK's leaders is based on actual intelligence or some sort or just his opinion. Given their willingness to take pot-shots at SK, I know I'm concerned about this.

Has that sentiment changed since Kim Jong-un ascended to power?
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