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'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

theaustralian.com.au

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Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#31

Post by nemonemo »

Volpe wrote: post #16
nemonemo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NK is aiming the weapon at US and its allies, unlike India or Pakistan who aim at each other. B.R. Myer's talk explains the motive behind NK's nuclear program pretty well. http://www.booktv.org/Watch/11315/The+Cleanest+Race+How+Nort...

Right, so it makes sense that the US would be worried... not why the UN should sanction them. I'm referring to the inconsistency. The implication of what you are saying is: "The UN only intervenes when it suits the US". To me that makes me think LESS of the UN sanctions, not more.

Your comment conveys another implication that UN is supposed to be impartial to issues between member countries. That cannot explain veto power of five permanent members of UN security council, which no other country has.

On consistency: I don't think UN, as a group of nations with conflicting goals, tries to behave in a consistent way, although people are free to blame it for its inconsistency.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#32

Post by brownbat »

Most informative piece on North Korean culture I've read recently was written by someone who worked in Pyongyang for a year as a "reviser" (giving a final read over their English translated press releases):

http://www.aidanfc.net/a_year_in_pyongyang.html

"A Year in Pyongyang" is just fascinating. Really digs into the mechanics and psychology of a state run under a cult of personality.

It's also completely free.

The biggest takeaway: there are probably a shockingly high number of "true believers" there that would fight to the last man in any conflict.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#33

Post by hammock »

plaguuuuuu wrote: post #13
mjn wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For decades that's been the problem. South Korea's population centers are too close to the North for an attack to be a reasonable risk: even decades-old artillery and unguided rockets can hit Seoul, launched from hundreds of dug-in sites. So things have been organized around trying to pressure North Korea in various ways, either via China, or directly, but without force being a seriously considered option.

Yep. This is what happens when you expand too close to the enemy's base..

Is that a Starcraft reference?

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#34

Post by jandrewrogers »

guimarin wrote: post #19

This is sensationalist news at its finest. There is only one way to confirm that a nuclear bomb test has occurred and it is not by measuring 'resulting' earthquakes. Until either the US Gov't or the very top at the IAEA states there was a successful test, this is nothing but linkbait. Frankly, given the tensions right now between the North and South, and that it seems the North, with the Passing of Kim Jung Il, might…

Man-made explosions, both chemical and nuclear, have seismic signatures that are substantially different than natural sources and which have been measured countless times from US and Soviet testing. The earthquake sensor feeds are often scrubbed of non-earthquake sources; ever wonder how they do that?

There is a possibility that it is a chemical explosion, if you are willing to swallow the idea that the North Koreans detonated several million kilos of military high explosives in a mine shaft somewhere. But even then, while the signature is closer to a nuclear explosion it is not identical. Maybe the seismic data from a variety of sources is damaged or defective but I'm not counting on it.

Have you considered the possibility that you are the one over-reacting? Our ability to classify seismic motion is much more sophisticated than you seem to be assuming. It is the same reason they can tell whether an earthquake swarm in a particular spot is caused by local fault activity or the imminent emergence of a volcano -- the signature is different. There is a lot more to analyzing seismic activity than just the magnitude. It is also how we do subsurface imaging for mining oil. It is a mathematically sophisticated field, give it some respect.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#35

Post by nikatwork »

guimarin wrote: post #24
cjensen wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An earthquake 1000m below the surface on Nuclear Test Road (not a joke: type the coordinates into Google Maps) which occurs after a week of nuclear test threats and has a slightly larger magnitude than the last North Korean test is unlikely to be a coincidence.

I'm positive that North Korea wants the world to believe that they're testing nuclear weapons, because that is their only bargaining card, but that doesn't mean they made a successful test.

NK stated they would perform a nuke test on this date and location.

Which do you think is more likely, a) the tremors are from a nuke test b) Kim Jong performed a mystical ancient Korean wardance that happened to summon an earthquake at the designated time and place?

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#36

Post by InclinedPlane »

Volpe wrote: post #6

Why is it wrong that NK do Nuclear testing? I agree NK has some human rights issues, that should be addressed, but testing nuclear weapons is no different to Pakistan or India, and there are no sanctions against them.

Are you kidding me? The DPRK is one of the most horrific regimes in the last 2 centuries, and that includes the Nazis and the Stalinist Soviet Union. Of all the regimes that can't be trusted with nuclear weapons they are pretty much at the top of the list.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#37

Post by yk »

rooshdi wrote: post #26
SoftwareMaven wrote: post #18

My father-in-law was a VP in Northrop Grumman's space and satellite division. The kinds of projects he worked on were space defense satellites. When he looked at all the uncertainty in the world (much caused at least indirectly by the US), his biggest fear was and continues to be North Korea. Given the types of people I know he met with, this test does not fill me with warm fuzzies.

I wonder if the U.S. would react any differently if Iran had conducted these same tests.

No, thats the entire point about obtaining nuclear weapons.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#38

Post by Volpe »

panacea wrote: post #29
Volpe wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they are severe. my 'some' wasn't refering to the severity of the issues. Regardless this has nothing to do with whether sanctions should be applied for testing weapons.

You seem to think having nuclear weapons is some sort of national right or something. It's not. Nobody wants an unstable, belligerent, nasty dictatorship to have the ability to nuke other countries.

> You seem to think having nuclear weapons is some sort of national right or something.

No, I don't think that.

> Nobody wants an unstable, belligerent, nasty dictatorship to have the ability to nuke other countries.

The US opened this can of worms and created an imbalance in the world. North Korea is surrounded by nuclear enabled countries (China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan).

As an aside:

What exactly is 'unstable' about North Korea... it's been the same ruling family for 50 years... I realise propaganda has permeated all of our views and it's difficult to see through the fog of misinformation but think about the words you use as you write them.

North Korea (from all credible reports) is a mess, and quite horrible for A LOT of people, THAT needs to change. I would not rate it any more "belligerent" than the US. It is definitely not unstable and its Nastiness extends only as far as its borders...

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#39

Post by jeswin »

Volpe wrote: post #6

Why is it wrong that NK do Nuclear testing? I agree NK has some human rights issues, that should be addressed, but testing nuclear weapons is no different to Pakistan or India, and there are no sanctions against them.

Or the thousands of tests conducted by the p5. These arsenals aren't any more legitimate than Indian and Pakistani arsenals. What is needed is comprehensive disarmament, which the US and the rest of p5 are opposed to.

Re: 'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test

#40

Post by zensavona »

panacea wrote: post #29
Volpe wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they are severe. my 'some' wasn't refering to the severity of the issues. Regardless this has nothing to do with whether sanctions should be applied for testing weapons.

You seem to think having nuclear weapons is some sort of national right or something. It's not. Nobody wants an unstable, belligerent, nasty dictatorship to have the ability to nuke other countries.

Well the only reason it isn't 'some sort of national right' is because the US and their allies are the ones who made the rules which decides who can have nukes. If the US and their allies are going to develop, test, and keep nukes on hand - why should anyone else not? If they want to make a point about nuclear weapons being 'wrong', lead by example.
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