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Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

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Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#281

There is a lot of philosophizing over whether HFT harms or helps the market, etc. Much of the pro camp centers around liquidity, but as someone else mentioned, much of that liquidity is absorbed by offsetting HFT. Rather than get lost in all of the gnarly details, however, I think it is easier to simply look at the purpose of the market and ask whether HFT serves or harms that purpose. IMO, it is pretty clear that it…

So what is the market's true purpose?

I assume that such a simple question is intended to allow its author to make a point. So, perhaps we can skip the dance and get right to what your point is?

Else, if you really are unaware of the market's purpose, perhaps you can spend a little time on Google. There is much available information online that you might find helpful in answering your question.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#282
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. I don't think it's surprising either, in fact when I was first writing the post I assumed HFT volume was closer to 95% of trade volume but I couldn't find any public numbers above 70%. I think that dark pools are where the next crash will come from, but I'm by no means a financial wizard. The way I perceive it, dark pools and other nearly-invisible investment exchanges are scary in that the ramifications of dar…

Maybe you actually know a lot about dark pools, but by expressing fear without expressing knowledge, you give the impression that you're mostly afraid because the name "dark pool" sounds like some kind of unregulated secret exchange run out of a meat locker by the Russian mafia. I think Kid Dynamite (a retired trader, non-HFT) has some pretty reasonable articles about dark pools: http://kiddynamitesworld.com/dark-poo…

Yes, I am aware of what dark pools are, and I'm not trying to imply fear. It's irrational to fear things you can't change, and it's unreasonable for me to deplore someone else allocating their money in an interesting fashion. I don't mean Dark pools are inherently bad because they're dark. These Dark pools expose society to unmanaged risk because of the implicit guarantees of support from the general population.

It's not so much evil as it is secret, and secrets with public shares are interesting secrets indeed.

As I said, I don't live in fear of Dark pools or any financial instrument, but it's important to understand that there is a significant difference between the normal sale and purchase of securities and the activity which happens in Dark pools. Otherwise there would be no need to draw a distinction.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what is the market's true purpose?

I assume that such a simple question is intended to allow its author to make a point. So, perhaps we can skip the dance and get right to what your point is? Else, if you really are unaware of the market's purpose, perhaps you can spend a little time on Google. There is much available information online that you might find helpful in answering your question.

What perplexes me here is the enthusiastic response received for the development and deployment of bitcoin mining hardware (for which the motive is giving a hardware edge to people in order to make lots and lots of money) versus the condemnation of HFT (for which the motive is giving a hardware edge to people in order to make lots and lots of money). Both cases require a significant outlay of resources and talent and I have respect for the work that went into each.

And this gets at a bunch of people, including yourself, claiming that HFT somehow defeats the "purpose of the market(tm)." But if I look this up on Wikipedia, I get the notion that it exists to help corporations raise money and secondarily to provide an indicator of the general economic mood. I fail to see how HFT goes against this. That said, I'd support everything Mark Cuban suggested short of the trading tax (because I believe (without proof) that it would have unintended negative consequences far beyond HFT).

Mark Cuban aside, I mostly see various people who, to quote an Amazon review of "Broken Markets: How High Frequency Trading and Predatory Practices on Wall Street are Destroying Investor Confidence and Your Portfolio", sound like the reviewer's grandparents explaining why they don't use computers. No hard proof - just lots and lots of fear-mongering.

So much so that I'm starting to believe that the underlying issue here is resentment and jealousy that they didn't pull these hacks off themselves and walk away with the big bucks.

Finally, how is HFT worse than the "good old days(tm)" where major brokerages all had seats on trading room floors from which they could manipulate the bid/ask spread with impunity? I'd counter that it's actually better now that anyone capable of getting the cash and talent upfront can get into the same game that's been played since the very beginning, except that the pace is continually accelerating and those left out in the cold are succumbing to future shock. Buffett knows how they'll deal with the events preceding an actual Singularity(c) if one occurs.

But that's just my opinion, feel free to disagree.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#284
post #244
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It just means that your stop-loss order is working on unsmoothed millisecond-resolution data when it should be working on smoothed minute-resolution data.

When your stop-loss order executes, it's not going to execute at a smoothed minute-resolution price. It's going to execute at a price that's currently in the book. That means that it's not going to stop your losses if you trigger it with smoothed minute-resolution data. Twenty years ago, it would have. But today it won't, because anybody who took your smoothed minute-resolution price would be giving you an exploitabl…

Just so I'm not misunderstanding you....so you're saying that flash crashes would not and have not executed stop loss orders? (And also wouldn't trigger far out of the money purchase orders?)

That seems contrary to my understanding of how the market works. If a stock is trading at x and I have a stop loss in at (x-10) and the stock trades down to (x-20), even for a few moments, I would assume my order would execute (this is assuming FIFO execution of orders, and also assuming sufficient volume at that price to exhaust all the standing orders once we are down in that region).

Are you saying this is not the case?

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume that such a simple question is intended to allow its author to make a point. So, perhaps we can skip the dance and get right to what your point is? Else, if you really are unaware of the market's purpose, perhaps you can spend a little time on Google. There is much available information online that you might find helpful in answering your question.

What perplexes me here is the enthusiastic response received for the development and deployment of bitcoin mining hardware (for which the motive is giving a hardware edge to people in order to make lots and lots of money) versus the condemnation of HFT (for which the motive is giving a hardware edge to people in order to make lots and lots of money). Both cases require a significant outlay of resources and talent and…

Ah, now there's an honest response. Thanks for the thoughtful reply.

I'm not sure why the comparison between bitcoin and HFT, however. My admittedly limited knowledge of the former informs me that the purpose of using compute intensive operations to mine bitcoins is to prevent arbitrary creation by limiting the number and means of creation, thereby attributing value to bitcoins.

I will allow that my understanding could be off by some degree but, in any case, there is no comparison. There is nothing in the design, purpose, or function of the market that is served by accruing advantage to whomever simply has the best hardware. Hence, I am really missing the leap that "well, if it works for bitcoin it should work for anything". The market is designed for economic purposes such as raising capital and allowing broader participation in the economic output of society via investment opportunities. To see how counterproductive HFT is to these purposes, one need only take it to the extreme. That is, what if all transactions were performed by HFT algos? Would the market continue to serve its purpose and function the same? Or would it simply become some strange self-serving system that benefits an entirely different group with entirely different agendas and objectives? How would an IPO even work in this scenario?

Now, going back to the point in my original post, one can argue that the new system is better or fairer, or whatever. But one cannot honestly argue that it is the same or, worse, better serves its current purpose due to HFT.

Your argument that HFT is no worse than the good old days is a straw man, so there's not much I need to say there. I will add though that whether spreads, prices, etc are manipulated by major brokerages or "anyone capable of getting the cash and talent up front", it does subvert confidence in the market and its core mechanisms.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#286
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When your stop-loss order executes, it's not going to execute at a smoothed minute-resolution price. It's going to execute at a price that's currently in the book. That means that it's not going to stop your losses if you trigger it with smoothed minute-resolution data. Twenty years ago, it would have. But today it won't, because anybody who took your smoothed minute-resolution price would be giving you an exploitabl…

Just so I'm not misunderstanding you....so you're saying that flash crashes would not and have not executed stop loss orders? (And also wouldn't trigger far out of the money purchase orders?) That seems contrary to my understanding of how the market works. If a stock is trading at x and I have a stop loss in at (x-10) and the stock trades down to (x-20), even for a few moments, I would assume my order would execute (…

The great-grandparent comment said that the market (specifically stop-loss orders) ought to work the way you thought the grandparent comment said it did work. The grandparent comment, to which you replied, actually described what would happen if the market worked the way it had been proposed to work. You are correct about how the market actually does work, and my comment explains why it works that way.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What perplexes me here is the enthusiastic response received for the development and deployment of bitcoin mining hardware (for which the motive is giving a hardware edge to people in order to make lots and lots of money) versus the condemnation of HFT (for which the motive is giving a hardware edge to people in order to make lots and lots of money). Both cases require a significant outlay of resources and talent and…

Ah, now there's an honest response. Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I'm not sure why the comparison between bitcoin and HFT, however. My admittedly limited knowledge of the former informs me that the purpose of using compute intensive operations to mine bitcoins is to prevent arbitrary creation by limiting the number and means of creation, thereby attributing value to bitcoins. I will allow that my understanding cou…

Let me see if I understood what you wrote...

Summarizing:

1. I don't understand bitcoin mining but that's no obstacle to rendering a negative judgment on a comparison between building bitcoin mining farms and building an HFT firm.

2. The market is designed for raising capital and HFT is deleterious to that purpose.

So, looking at the market today, GOOG is 772, AMZN is 264, FB is 29, ZNGA is 3, and LNKD is 126. Sounds like they're raising capital to me. What am I missing?

3. I'll just dismiss your comparison of HFT profiting from bid/ask spreads to the previous roll of pit bosses doing the same thing as a straw man. And then I'll close with an unsubstantiated claim that HFT has reduced confidence in the market because it's obvious(tm).

Now I'm assuming that because Mark Cuban has wisely decided against investing in markets he doesn't understand that you're reasoning that no one understands the market?

Which to me is as much poppycock as the belief that the market is %100 efficient 100% of the time (for if so, there would be no housing bubbles, no dotcom booms, and more recently, no fiscal cliff chaos and witness http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies which whose performance would be effectively impossible if so).

Might I propose an alternate path from futilely fleeing the event horizon of this mini technological singularity? Instead of saying "I don't understand HFT so it's bad" why not use the same physics currently in use to understand the ensemble behavior of 10^23++ molecules to derive higher-level trading strategies? It's worked in the past (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Sornette) and I have no reason to believe it cannot be made to work again (which means to me that smart people are already working on it or have already figured it out).

Finally, I'll close with evidence that HFT does reduce bid/ask spreads: http://www.tradersmagazine.com/news/hfts-spreads-credit-suis... and a statement by a day trader that he's benefiting from it:

From the final comment on http://www.amazon.com/review/RNIOIX766KXWG/ref=cm_cr_dp_cmt?...

" So if I can make a dollar or more per share with a .16 risk, why do I care about HFT's? They might even help me if they decide to move the price up a few pennys when Im close to my profit target and they may hurt me if I was a few pennys away from the stop.(all my stops are in my head, never manually till close to the target or stop. And even then I may sell at market if last 2 moves were upticks. Ithink HFTS hurt the other greedy scalpers and market makers and specialists and whatever goniff's are swimming around looking for a quick edge. But how would they hurt the buy and hold value investor who lets say buys AAPL at 100 and knows its going way higher and doesnt sell till its at 500. Who got hurt. Maybe a penny in slippage somewhere. Irrelevent to the long term player and even to me, the shorter term player. Its the scalpers that get hurt and they supposedly are providing liquidity anyway so their job is done. How do I get affected?"

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#288
post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just so I'm not misunderstanding you....so you're saying that flash crashes would not and have not executed stop loss orders? (And also wouldn't trigger far out of the money purchase orders?) That seems contrary to my understanding of how the market works. If a stock is trading at x and I have a stop loss in at (x-10) and the stock trades down to (x-20), even for a few moments, I would assume my order would execute (…

The great-grandparent comment said that the market (specifically stop-loss orders) ought to work the way you thought the grandparent comment said it did work. The grandparent comment, to which you replied, actually described what would happen if the market worked the way it had been proposed to work. You are correct about how the market actually does work, and my comment explains why it works that way.

Holy crap now I'm even more confused. I just want to know if stop loss orders will or will not execute during a flash crash, when the crash price trades below the stop loss price and their is sufficient volume to eat through all the standing orders.

Yes they will trade. No they will not trade (if they will not, then I'd be curious to know why, which perhaps has been explained above.)

EDIT: Rereading your comment above again, you seem to be of the belief that it will execute - which was the entire point of my argument. People talk as if HFT has no downsides, this to me seems like a clear downside. And saying "well just don't use stop loss orders, or use stop limit orders" isn't a valid counterpoint. A stop limit can still execute, the problem is when the stock dips down for a two minutes and then returns to where it was, but now you no longer hold the stock.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#289
post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The great-grandparent comment said that the market (specifically stop-loss orders) ought to work the way you thought the grandparent comment said it did work. The grandparent comment, to which you replied, actually described what would happen if the market worked the way it had been proposed to work. You are correct about how the market actually does work, and my comment explains why it works that way.

Holy crap now I'm even more confused. I just want to know if stop loss orders will or will not execute during a flash crash, when the crash price trades below the stop loss price and their is sufficient volume to eat through all the standing orders. Yes they will trade. No they will not trade (if they will not, then I'd be curious to know why, which perhaps has been explained above.) EDIT: Rereading your comment abov…

Sorry for the confusion. Absent experience, I believe that stop-loss orders will execute during flash crashes, because you don't know if a crash is a flash until it's over, at which point it's too late to stop your loss. Is that clearer?

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, now there's an honest response. Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I'm not sure why the comparison between bitcoin and HFT, however. My admittedly limited knowledge of the former informs me that the purpose of using compute intensive operations to mine bitcoins is to prevent arbitrary creation by limiting the number and means of creation, thereby attributing value to bitcoins. I will allow that my understanding cou…

Let me see if I understood what you wrote... Summarizing: 1. I don't understand bitcoin mining but that's no obstacle to rendering a negative judgment on a comparison between building bitcoin mining farms and building an HFT firm. 2. The market is designed for raising capital and HFT is deleterious to that purpose. So, looking at the market today, GOOG is 772, AMZN is 264, FB is 29, ZNGA is 3, and LNKD is 126. Sounds…

It's hard to get to the meat of your arguments because they are riddled with logical fallacies. You seem to be trying to wedge as many in as possible.

Regarding your itemized "summary":

1. You seem to forget that YOU are the one asserting the validity of YOUR comparison between HFT and bitcoins. So, the onus is on YOU to prove it. So far, you have failed. Beyond that, I simply stated that I am no bitcoin expert. But, I believe my summary of bitcoins was sufficient and relevant to draw the distinction. If it wasn't, then you should have explained how I missed the mark and why that miss is relevant to your argument.

2. Are you kidding? So the fact that there are people who have cancer but not yet died from it proves that cancer is good for you? I mean your argument here is literally: HFT exists; there are stocks that are doing well; therefore HFT cannot be harmful. Wow.

3. You introduced the straw man. Don't blame me for noticing. As for much of the rest of the stuff you wrote, I never said it.

Ditto the Mark Cuban stuff. Not sure why you invoke him or the question of understanding the market for that matter. Likewise with the 100% market efficiency comment. I never referred to any of that. How many straw men are we up to now?

You do a really good job of arguing with yourself, but you fail to address my original point. Your talk about bid/ask spreads does at least address market mechanisms, but even if we were to accept all of the great wonders that HFT does for spreads at face value, that is a far cry from rebutting my OP, as spreads are but a small part of the picture. In fact, it is so insignificant to this discussion, let's call that one a red herring.

I also noticed that you left my example in the extreme completely untouched. Wise decision.

In any event, you joke about my not offering evidence, but the irony is that much of this actually is self-evident. For instance, who do you think is sitting on the other side of the trade when HFTs profit? I won't ask you to buy my trademarked brand of common sense this time though: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/business/high-speed-trades...

That's an actual study, not an Amazon review from some random "day trader". BTW, it is slightly hilarious that you referred to that review as "evidence".

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