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Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

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Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#251
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What is the benefit of trading over ms resolutions. What problem is it solving? The problem it's solving is that people want to do it. Exchanges on which they can't are outcompeted by exchanges on which they can. >Wouldn't trade be more efficient if it were lock stepped - say one trade per hour (per day?): No. >you agree your trade and the exchange processes it on the hour. You "agree" your trade outside the exchang…

> The problem it's solving is that people want to do it. // As a generality I'd say that's false. Why buy in to a system that makes a tiny proportion of the populous vastly wealthy only because those people already are wealthy. > You "agree" your trade outside the exchange? // No, hence the conjunction. Perhaps "you issue a bid or offer" would have been better? > Spreads would get wider // OK, can you give a reason w…

>As a generality I'd say that's false. Why buy in to a system

Because it gives you a better price. There are two sides to any trade; people go to the HFTs because their prices are better than anyone else's. If they weren't providing value, no-one else would trade with them.

> that makes a tiny proportion of the populous vastly wealthy only because those people already are wealthy.

HFT has greatly democratized market-making; in the old days stockbroking was an old-boy's network, virtually impossible for new participants to enter. Nowadays, three or four blokes with computers and one investor can start a new trading firm, and many of the biggest HFT players started that way.

>OK, can you give a reason why that happens and why it leaves more with middlemen

Because there's a higher risk. If I offer to buy microsoft for $50 but that offer has to stay out there for an hour, and news of a lawsuit comes out 20 minutes later, I'm going to lose lots of money. So the middlemen need to be able to bear that risk, they need much bigger capital reserves, and they can't afford to offer the penny spreads we see nowadays (because they need to make a greater profit to offer the same return on their bigger capital reserve).

> At the moment a change in price so transient as to pass in milliseconds gets exploited to extract value from the system.

Where's the value being "extracted" from? Certainly not from a fundamentals trader, who's getting the best possible price with the smallest possible spread (sadly, regulations require shares to be sold in increments of $0.01 and no smaller, so there's always $0.005/share to be made on every trade, which by modern standards is absolutely huge - and is why the HFT guys are willing to spend so much on low latency to maximize their chances of getting that $0.005/share. But the fundamentals trader always pays exactly $0.005/share; the HFTs are just fighting among themselves for who gets it).

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#252

http://invezz.com/news/alternative-investments/625-uk-report... "Veteran traders would usually wait in anticipation for the weekly report of gas-inventory figures by the U.S. Energy Information Administration released on Thursday at 10.30 AM and then dive into the busiest trading window of the week. This is no longer true as most traders are now staying out of the market due to the HFTs new strategy - sending floods…

At what point will HFT drive out the proper functioning of a Market? Have there been any studies on this? If human traders mostly reacted to "real" news (the Orange juice crop is bad this year) then human trading was mostly linked to actual changes that affect the price mechanism But if large volumes of trades are speculative, or even worse, are directed at affecting the behaviour of other large Market players, is th…

Don't forget the PPT, "Plunge Protection Team" a working Group that was/is being used to prop up the markets during downturns. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Mark...

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't. High frequency trading slices the gap between offer and purchase into an enormous number of tiny slices, and HFT companies compete to see who can collect the most number of slices. But that does not affect the underlying factors that lead to most offers and purchases of stock. For example you could offer OJ futures at improperly high prices a billion times per second, but that does not mean anyone will buy…

>For example, based on the business fundamentals it seems ludicrous to me that Apple would have a lower P/E ratio than GM--but it currently does. Their P/E ratios are very similar. Why does that surprise you? Apple is a very mature company. They're currently making huge earnings (which naturally lowers the P/E ratio if those earnings are not expected to continue at that level), and they're a big long-term risk becaus…

Plus, GM is apparently backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. It's bulletproof. :)

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#254

http://invezz.com/news/alternative-investments/625-uk-report... "Veteran traders would usually wait in anticipation for the weekly report of gas-inventory figures by the U.S. Energy Information Administration released on Thursday at 10.30 AM and then dive into the busiest trading window of the week. This is no longer true as most traders are now staying out of the market due to the HFTs new strategy - sending floods…

Information can cause one of three price reactions: up, down, or flat. Prices stay the same if the market accurately anticipated the information. Chances are, though, that the information will change prices. One thus knows that when an EIA report comes out, ceteris paribus , prices are more likely to spike or dive than stand still. "Veteran" traders set up limit orders so that if prices rose they'd buy and if prices…

"Information can cause one of three price reactions: up, down, or flat."

Then there is no cause. Prices change somewhat randomly whether there is some information or not. The only correct predictive model is something like " there is 80pc chance that the price will be between -10 and 30 of its current value". Anything else is reading in a crystal ball.

I didn't invent any of these, read Thinking Fast and Slow if you have any doubts.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#255
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem it's solving is that people want to do it. // As a generality I'd say that's false. Why buy in to a system that makes a tiny proportion of the populous vastly wealthy only because those people already are wealthy. > You "agree" your trade outside the exchange? // No, hence the conjunction. Perhaps "you issue a bid or offer" would have been better? > Spreads would get wider // OK, can you give a reason w…

>As a generality I'd say that's false. Why buy in to a system Because it gives you a better price. There are two sides to any trade; people go to the HFTs because their prices are better than anyone else's. If they weren't providing value, no-one else would trade with them. > that makes a tiny proportion of the populous vastly wealthy only because those people already are wealthy. HFT has greatly democratized market-…

>Where's the value being "extracted" from? //

>there's always $0.005/share to be made on every trade //

I [clearly] don't know enough to know if you're exactly right, but lower the latency and increase the trades and there you have it. Aren't bids and offers listed in pips (like $1.4032).

As I see it production, processing, administration, etc. are the only value inputs. When a 400ms glitch extracts something of the order 1e5 USD the value that money represents comes from those inputs. Yes liquidity is an administrative input but the way the system is set up trades appear to extract far greater amounts of money than their value to society; of course that money comes from other investors, but money is not value, the value the money ineffectively represents is brought to the system by those said inputs.

The problem appears to be that those in a position to rectify the aberration are too busy getting rich off it to care.

Thanks for your input(!) and education.

As an aside, do you [or anyone] know of something along the lines of a (FOSS) toy stock market program, something that allows one to model a market futz with parameters on trades (like changing minimum stock increments, or fixing time periods) and see the effects graphically. Like an ecological modelling program I suppose.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#256

http://invezz.com/news/alternative-investments/625-uk-report... "Veteran traders would usually wait in anticipation for the weekly report of gas-inventory figures by the U.S. Energy Information Administration released on Thursday at 10.30 AM and then dive into the busiest trading window of the week. This is no longer true as most traders are now staying out of the market due to the HFTs new strategy - sending floods…

This is such utter bullshit. Markets are being programmatically gamed, and seriously bright young minds are still flocking to the Vampire Squid's embrace, hoping for a chance to help them do that in exchange for a slice of that phat, fraudulent loot.

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#257
What if someone got the natural gas report was earlier than 400 ms but used a computer whose clock set 400ms too early?

It then would be the regular "insider" knowledge trying to pretend business is as usual. But he got noticed because instead of starting abusing the system at 10:30:000 he unknowingly started abusing it at 10:29:400.

Petty amounts of money anyway and nobody is forcing to gamble in the stock market ; )

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#258

There is a lot of philosophizing over whether HFT harms or helps the market, etc. Much of the pro camp centers around liquidity, but as someone else mentioned, much of that liquidity is absorbed by offsetting HFT. Rather than get lost in all of the gnarly details, however, I think it is easier to simply look at the purpose of the market and ask whether HFT serves or harms that purpose. IMO, it is pretty clear that it…

So what is the market's true purpose?

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't. High frequency trading slices the gap between offer and purchase into an enormous number of tiny slices, and HFT companies compete to see who can collect the most number of slices. But that does not affect the underlying factors that lead to most offers and purchases of stock. For example you could offer OJ futures at improperly high prices a billion times per second, but that does not mean anyone will buy…

>For example, based on the business fundamentals it seems ludicrous to me that Apple would have a lower P/E ratio than GM--but it currently does. Their P/E ratios are very similar. Why does that surprise you? Apple is a very mature company. They're currently making huge earnings (which naturally lowers the P/E ratio if those earnings are not expected to continue at that level), and they're a big long-term risk becaus…

My point was that the typical criteria for evaluating a market are the prices that it produces--but reasonable people can disagree about what the prices "should" be. (As evidenced by this sub-thread.)

Re: Someone got the natural gas report 400 ms early

#260
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the first time I heard about that meme, which means your comment contained the most usable information I gained across all comments in this thread.

Then you will probably find knowyourmeme.com to be educational and edifying ;). HN, however, is not usually where I want to find out about these things, especially when they're so wholly tangential.

I am not universally interested in all memes, but I liked this particular one. Also, it isn't content-free, it exists for a reason.
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