Training Rats as Traders

#1

Post by nav » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 12:44 PM UTC

Training Rats as Traders
sites.google.com

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#2

Post by jibiki » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 12:56 PM UTC

Fascinating. I'm extremely skeptical, of course. The thing that bothers me most is that they list percentages (perhaps this is the percentage of time that the rats guess correctly?) rather than $ amounts.

Even if the experiment fails, explaining the fact that the later generations performed better could lead to some really interesting science.

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#3

Post by mkelly » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 1:30 PM UTC

I wonder how this compares to using a neural network. I see no comparison to using other methods to predict the market, though he claims to outperform humans.

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#4

Post by streety » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 1:40 PM UTC

jibiki wrote: post #2

Fascinating. I'm extremely skeptical, of course. The thing that bothers me most is that they list percentages (perhaps this is the percentage of time that the rats guess correctly?) rather than $ amounts. Even if the experiment fails, explaining the fact that the later generations performed better could lead to some really interesting science.

Did the later generations perform better?

As far as I could see it was only Mr. Kleinworth Morgan Jr 5 which performed noticeably better. Run through a statistical test I doubt the results observed would deviate from random variation.

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#5

Post by nav » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 1:47 PM UTC

The study is very eye opening to say the least. Results are based off of and emotion-free instinctive approach to choosing outcomes based on (to a degree) fundamental investment principles. Pavlov's application to investing. I agree with the thread, the most fascinating aspect is the generational improvement throughout the experiment.

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#6

Post by Spyckie » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 1:49 PM UTC

My first thought was, is it April 1st already?

"Since I did not want to make it too complicated, I only used the USD/EUR future to make the rats experts in this specific market segment, but other rats can be trained in other markets as well. I trained the rats for about 3 months, starting with 80 Sprague Dawley laboratory rats, 40 males and 40 females with the intention to cross the best of them to genetically create the best traders through select breeding."

Sounds like a pigeonrank algorithm to me...

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#7

Post by jibiki » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 1:58 PM UTC

streety wrote: post #4

jibiki wrote: post #2

Fascinating. I'm extremely skeptical, of course. The thing that bothers me most is that they list percentages (perhaps this is the percentage of time that the rats guess correctly?) rather than $ amounts. Even if the experiment fails, explaining the fact that the later generations performed better could lead to some really interesting science.

Did the later generations perform better? As far as I could see it was only Mr. Kleinworth Morgan Jr 5 which performed noticeably better. Run through a statistical test I doubt the results observed would deviate from random variation.

I got that the 2nd generation average is 48.7% and the 3rd generation average is 50.4%. I'm too lazy to find the standard deviations.

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#8

Post by cosmo7 » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 2:01 PM UTC

Excellent social commentary.

The rather neat dynastic results table at the end show percentages but no legend; does anyone know what they represent?

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#9

Post by likpok » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 2:19 PM UTC

Issues with this that I see (aside from the obvious lack of statistical rigor) are that he gives the rats repeated input. Effectively, he is selecting for the rats who best memorize tracks 1-600.

Re: Training Rats as Traders

#10

Post by paraschopra » Fri, Mar 13, 2009, 2:24 PM UTC

Isn't it forex, not stocks?