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That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

nytimes.com

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Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#31

Post by JoeAltmaier »

mauvehaus wrote: post #21
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #5

A handy technique for evaluating situations is this: how many mistakes am I away from death/injury? If I drive without a seatbelt, I've put myself 1 accident away in many cases. My Scouts are young, and love to climb things. I tell them, I know you're strong and skilled. But a loose rock or slippery foothold puts you at risk anyway. So wear the harness - now it takes two mistakes to kill you (e.g. loose rock + badly…

In the climbing example as presented, you should be at least three mistakes away from injury. The belayer should check the climber's harness and knots before allowing the climber to climb. Naturally the climber should check that the belayer's harness is fastened securely and that the belay device is rigged properly before climbing too. Realistically, there are still several single points of failure in the system: 1)…

Thanks, yes, our climbing staff at camp is skilled at teaching correct climbing technique. I use this example to help 10-yr-olds understand why they cannot climb a random rock face during a hike.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#33

Post by noname123 »

In the derivatives world, there's a saying for trying to bet against highly unlikely events with catastrophic risk for small gains: "picking up nickels in front of a steamroller." The issue is when you pick up enough nickels and watch for the steamrollers vigilantly first few times, you grow complacent and think that you are the master of nickel pickers and steamrollers are slow mofo's. You try to pick more nickels and linger longer in front of incoming steamrollers.

See debacle of Long Term Capital Management. Options trader take profit/loss as soon as a humble target is hit. It's as in life, the biggest loss is the complete loss of your physical capital which takes you out permanently of the game. Gamblers focus on the potential profits and get high on how their luck evaded fate in one nick of time, traders focus on preservation of capital.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#34

Post by protomyth »

The CDC has keeps statistics on how people in the USA die http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm

Looking at the 2011 prelims "Accidents (unintentional injuries)" comes in at #5 with 122,777 deaths and Intentional self-harm (suicide) is at #10 with 38,285. Assault (homicide) is no longer in the top 15.

Also, Assault (homicide) by discharge of firearms is 11,101 with all other Assault (homicide) totaling 4,852. To give some context to the Assault (homicide) numbers, "Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances" totals 33,554 deaths or about 3x the Assault (homicide) firearm number or 2x the total.

Looking at the stats and what kills us, we spend a lot of time looking at the stuff that is actually going down versus the stuff that is increasing.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#35

Post by bryanlarsen »

shin_lao wrote: post #24

Author doesn't understand how statistics/probabilities work and it ruins the article. If you roll a dice six times, you have no guarantee to get a six. Each time you roll the dice, you have 1/6th chance of getting a six and this doesn't change no matter how many times you roll. If you roll a dice six times, you have around 66,51% (1-(5/6)^6) chance of getting six at least once. For the same reason, if you have 1/1000…

I'm willing to bet that Jared Diamond understands statistics. He just understands that most of the people reading his article don't. The inaccuracy doesn't affect the article so it's better to be more clear than completely inaccurate.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#36

Post by potatolicious »

Tichy wrote: post #23
jessedhillon wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. I'm pretty sure it was about why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies. Yes, the judgments made in the book tend to be more fact-based and objective, e.g., a gun is more effective than a spear. It is not a screed extolling the virtues of European civiliz…

It's been a while since I read it, but it think it would be more about why one "tribe" developed guns and the other didn't. (Minor nitpicking by someone who also heard of Jared Diamond).

I'm in the middle of the book right now, the author goes to great pains to point out that there is no value judgment being passed on what is better, who is more advanced (in the moral, judgmental sense), or who is right.

But at the end of the day, it is a study of how some parts of the world - particularly Europe - came to technologically, and subsequently politically/economically dominate everyone else. I don't think this is an unfair thing to say, and it implies no Euro- or Amero-centrism.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#37

Post by sparky_z »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #35
shin_lao wrote: post #24

Author doesn't understand how statistics/probabilities work and it ruins the article. If you roll a dice six times, you have no guarantee to get a six. Each time you roll the dice, you have 1/6th chance of getting a six and this doesn't change no matter how many times you roll. If you roll a dice six times, you have around 66,51% (1-(5/6)^6) chance of getting six at least once. For the same reason, if you have 1/1000…

I'm willing to bet that Jared Diamond understands statistics. He just understands that most of the people reading his article don't. The inaccuracy doesn't affect the article so it's better to be more clear than completely inaccurate.

The thing is, it's not even an inaccuracy. He's entirely correct (statistically speaking). He's describing the concept of Expected Value* without explicitly using the term.

The only thing he could be said to "wrong" about is the idea that a person can die more than once, but everybody understands that that's not actually true. It certainly doesn't "ruin the article" like this poor fellow seems to think.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#38

Post by JoeAltmaier »

feintruled wrote: post #15
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its possible to be careful and unstressed. I avoid caffeine. I don't even think about it any more; I just don't choose drinks containing caffeine.

Not so black and white though, caffeine may have health benefits, e.g. http://www.webmd.com/alzheimers/news/20120607/coffee-may-hel...

Sure, but I get squirrly and my blood pressure goes up. So all the studies in the world don't mean more to me than my experience.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#39

Post by mauvehaus »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #31
mauvehaus wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the climbing example as presented, you should be at least three mistakes away from injury. The belayer should check the climber's harness and knots before allowing the climber to climb. Naturally the climber should check that the belayer's harness is fastened securely and that the belay device is rigged properly before climbing too. Realistically, there are still several single points of failure in the system: 1)…

Thanks, yes, our climbing staff at camp is skilled at teaching correct climbing technique. I use this example to help 10-yr-olds understand why they cannot climb a random rock face during a hike.

I didn't mean to suggest otherwise about the teaching of safety if that's how you read my comment. I think the model you're teaching to the 10-year-olds is both well suited to the audience, and gives them a tool to use to analyze other situations they find themselves in. Sorry if I got derailed a bit from that point while fleshing out the safety system involved in climbing and the risks therein for the non-climbers.

Now I just wish that some of the people I see climbing outside (and inside!) would think as much as you're asking the 10-year-olds to. If they did that much they'd be much safer, nevermind a fuller analysis of the system.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#40

Post by Tichy »

potatolicious wrote: post #36
Tichy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been a while since I read it, but it think it would be more about why one "tribe" developed guns and the other didn't. (Minor nitpicking by someone who also heard of Jared Diamond).

I'm in the middle of the book right now, the author goes to great pains to point out that there is no value judgment being passed on what is better, who is more advanced (in the moral, judgmental sense), or who is right. But at the end of the day, it is a study of how some parts of the world - particularly Europe - came to technologically, and subsequently politically/economically dominate everyone else. I don't thin…

I didn't disagree with that. I just wanted to point out that his reasoning is much more subtle than just "they had guns and the others only spears". That is exactly the point of the book, because the usual explanation people come up with is "they were too stupid to invent guns". The book explains how intelligence had nothing to do with it.
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