Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#201

Post by dredmorbius » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 12:41 PM UTC

andyjohnson0 wrote: post #192

fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blah blah, appeal to authority... It's too complicated for you... etc etc. More appeals to authority, and a plea to patiently wait for word from up on high that they've figured out at last, whatever it was that they missed the first time. Some of what you said may be true, but it's also a typical thing one might say after any engineering (potential) disaster. I'm pleased that some persons with appropriate knowledge h…

The thing that will "remove any pressure Boeing engineers may feel to give their battery issue less attention than it deserves" is heat from the NTSB and FAA, not self-serving pronouncements by some guy who happens to run a couple of tiny (compared to Boeing) high-tech engineering companies.

Companies (and their regulators) have frequently been shamed into doing what they should have in the first place by independent critics. Nader and automobiles as previously detailed, Rachel Carson and Silent Spring (ultimately resulting in the Clean Air and Clean Water acts and the EPA, created by Republican president Richard Nixon). Upton Sinclair and food processing.

Wikipedia's Whistleblower article notes a few other interesting cases: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_whistleblowers

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#202

Post by KMag » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 12:48 PM UTC

asmithmd1 wrote: post #191

simonh wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Youre focusing on what Elon Musk has to gain, which is very, very little. This is actual all about what he stands to lose. Tesla's business is predicated on the public accepting that cars packed with Li batteries are safe. If the public loses faith is Li batter mass power storage, Tesla is toast. That doesn't mean Elon is either right or wrong, but it's sufficient to explain why he feels a pressing need to be involve…

This is exactly why he is out in front of this issue. I worked in a hardware store after the first space shuttle accident in 1986. More than one customer thought the store should not be selling O rings since they caused the shuttle to blow up.

Did these seem to think that the o-rings were made of an explosive material, or did they seem to be worried that by selling o-rings the store was somehow enabling shoddy safety engineering?

Sometimes, I just have to try and convince myself that I'm missing the sarcasm and the general public is smarter than it appears.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#203

Post by LnxPrgr3 » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 12:52 PM UTC

alanctgardner2 wrote: post #164

alan_cx wrote: post #160

From a complete position of ignorance, I have never felt comfortable with these batteries in aeroplanes. On of my wastes of time is RC modelling. These batteries have been used now for quite some time for power. What we RC people know is that while these batteries have great performance, it very easy to make one blow up if not handled correctly. Enough burned out sheds can testify to this. So, even if the engineers s…

I think people have exaggerated feelings of insecurity about planes versus cars. Maybe it's because heavier-than-air flight just doesn't jive mentally, or maybe it's because you have very little personal control when flying. Either way, you carry these batteries on your person, in your coat pocket, in a bag, leave them in your study downstairs, hell, drive around in a big box made of them. Fisker Karmas were in the n…

Even old-fashioned gasoline cars carry with them a tank of incredibly flammable fuel, a battery that can dump hundreds of amps into a short circuit (and that vents explosive gas in normal operation), and a much higher risk of colliding with other things on the ground. IIRC car crashes kill on the order of 30,000 people a year in the US.

That said, I have had my engine catch fire while driving down the Interstate. It took me a few seconds to pull over and get out of the car. The best pilot ever isn't about to land a 787 from cruising altitude anywhere near as fast. I can only hope the design keeps the battery fire from endangering life or taking out anything else important in the meantime.

But my understanding is the rate of spectacular li-ion battery failures is phenomenally low. Incidents happen, but the vast majority of batteries behave themselves. From the early reports I've heard, the Boeing situation sounds like one of abuse.

But like I said with the Fisker situation, we won't really know anything about Boeing's situation until the investigations are complete.

Either way, I'll drop my phone in my pocket today with confidence, right before doing something else far more likely to hurt me: driving to work.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#204

Post by nextparadigms » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 12:56 PM UTC

So basically Boeing chose to use the cheaper kind of batteries, instead of the more secure kind. I imagine isolating thousands of tiny cells is quite a bit more expensive than isolating much larger ones.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#205

Post by fnordfnordfnord » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 1:08 PM UTC

ubernostrum wrote: post #179

fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blah blah, appeal to authority... It's too complicated for you... etc etc. More appeals to authority, and a plea to patiently wait for word from up on high that they've figured out at last, whatever it was that they missed the first time. Some of what you said may be true, but it's also a typical thing one might say after any engineering (potential) disaster. I'm pleased that some persons with appropriate knowledge h…

I find it amusing that you are one-sidedly complaining about appeals to authority when so many comments, on both sides, in this thread boil down to "my preferred expert is better than your preferred expert".

The difference is that, "my preferred expert" took the trouble to explain his reasoning which I will paraphrase as "Thermal runaway in Lithium batteries."

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#206

Post by fnordfnordfnord » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 1:12 PM UTC

epo wrote: post #189

ubernostrum wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it amusing that you are one-sidedly complaining about appeals to authority when so many comments, on both sides, in this thread boil down to "my preferred expert is better than your preferred expert".

Upvoted, to me Musk is being a publicity whore and scoring cheap hits over Boeing. I.e. his comments do not help us in advancing our understanding so can only be intended to publicise his own company's products.

He may well be. I can't say what is Musk's intent. What I can say, is that if Boeing handles their business properly, it won't make much difference what anyone has said or done this time next year.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#207

Post by andyjohnson0 » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 1:14 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #201

andyjohnson0 wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that will "remove any pressure Boeing engineers may feel to give their battery issue less attention than it deserves" is heat from the NTSB and FAA, not self-serving pronouncements by some guy who happens to run a couple of tiny (compared to Boeing) high-tech engineering companies.

Companies (and their regulators) have frequently been shamed into doing what they should have in the first place by independent critics. Nader and automobiles as previously detailed, Rachel Carson and Silent Spring (ultimately resulting in the Clean Air and Clean Water acts and the EPA, created by Republican president Richard Nixon). Upton Sinclair and food processing. Wikipedia's Whistleblower article notes a few ot…

Context is important here.

1. Elon Musk is not a whistleblower. He didn't bring this issue to light at the risk of persecution by Boeing or the airlines.

2. He's also not an "independent critic" - he's a entrepreneur who runs an aerospace company that competes with Boeing's space activities, another company that makes cars powered using batteries, and has no history as a critic of aircraft design.

3. I'm not from the US, so I hadn't heard of Upton Sinclair, but Carson's and Nader's motivations for what they did came from a desire to protect the natural environment and promote social justice respectively. I don't think that comparable motivations can be ascribed to Elon Musk in this case.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#208

Post by hollerith » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 1:29 PM UTC

robomartin wrote: post #68

While I can't dispute anything that is being said I think it is unfortunate that this is playing out the way it is. I can't dispute it because there's virtually no reliable publicly-available information on the design of this battery pack. I think it is unbecoming of an engineer or scientist, particularly of prominence, to voice such opinions without access to design data from the source. Before I could even begin to…

>Before I could even begin to dare to voice opinion I would need to study CAD models, electrical and electronic diagrams and test data. I would also want to have access to representative samples of the packs for inspection.

Has Boeing shared this information and this access with anyone except regulators?

Are they under any obligation to do so?

If not, then the more people who follow your suggested rule of not saying anything unless they have all the info, the greater the incentive for manufacturers and the regulators to choose never to give out the information.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#209

Post by fnordfnordfnord » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 1:31 PM UTC

zb wrote: post #180

InclinedPlane wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respect? What respect is due to a design that puts people's lives in danger? Yes, respect the engineers, and make sure to criticize the design and not the engineer, but please criticize the ever loving fuck out of the design. This isn't about corporate pride here. This is about lives. My life. Your life. Your family's lives. Everyone who flies in a plane is potentially endangered by faulty aircraft designs. So please…

What respect is due to a design that puts people's lives in danger? No lives are in danger, because the planes are grounded. They will not fly again until the cause of the present issue is found and resolved. It doesn't seem entirely unreasonable to me that that puts Musk's comments in a slightly different light for some people. Note that if Musk were a (Chartered) Professional Engineer (which afaik he is not) he mig…

Engineering ethics, PE licensure, both are an embarrassing shame to the engineering profession.

Besides, Musk might well get a pass via Subclause (2), because lives are arguably in danger, if Musk has a belief that the aircraft might be returned to service without the issue having been addressed.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#210

Post by msandford » Wed, Jan 30, 2013, 1:36 PM UTC

venus wrote: post #103

msandford wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if the engineers at Boing are REALLY good (and that's not guaranteed by any means) then you've still go the subcontractor problem to deal with. Boeing didn't design, engineer, fabricate, test and qualify these batteries in-house. Saying that they have advanced degrees from prestigious institutions makes it less likely that they have made mistakes is a non-starter. There ARE PROBLEMS with the batteries FULL STOP.…

> Boeing didn't design, engineer, fabricate, test and qualify these batteries in-house. Are you implying Tesla does? http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/panasonic-en...

No, not at all. The parent was making an appeal to authority (the engineers are not clowns, they have advanced degrees from prestigious schools). That's fine, but that only matters if those folks did all the work I talked about.

I don't care how Tesla got their batteries as the track record of their success makes the credentials of those involved in designing them irrelevant.