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Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

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Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>unless there was something so obviously wrong with the design that a conclusion was inescapable Isn't that exactly what both Musk and Professor Sadoway are suggesting in the linked article?

I'd be very interested in what they are saying if --and only if-- they had access to Boeing and FAA design and test data. You have to remember that the FAA had to approve these subsystems as well. I don't have any first-hand experience on just how detailed (or not) this certification process might be. Once again, how could anyone say anything at all without looking at data. To make a really dumb analogy, it's like cl…

> it's like claiming to know what happened with a race horse that died clear across the country because you know race horses. Wouldn't you first have to see the veterinarian's records on that horse as well as such things as dietary and other data before really being able to say anything at all.

If the differential has 5 items, and the most likely is most likely by 99% just on demographics, then it's going to take a lot of lab data to refute that.

Similarly, heat dissipation is a first-order problem in battery design. Especially in these high-capacity designs using high-density chemistries. What else is on the differential?

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#102
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadoway is one of the world's leading geniuses in this field.

Mostly in jest: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 "The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible." -- A Yale University management professor in re…

Well, here he's not saying that its safe, and never going to have problems.. He's saying its a bad design.. which I think he's competent enough to recognize the physics of

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#103

While I can't dispute anything that is being said I think it is unfortunate that this is playing out the way it is. I can't dispute it because there's virtually no reliable publicly-available information on the design of this battery pack. I think it is unbecoming of an engineer or scientist, particularly of prominence, to voice such opinions without access to design data from the source. Before I could even begin to…

Even if the engineers at Boing are REALLY good (and that's not guaranteed by any means) then you've still go the subcontractor problem to deal with. Boeing didn't design, engineer, fabricate, test and qualify these batteries in-house. Saying that they have advanced degrees from prestigious institutions makes it less likely that they have made mistakes is a non-starter. There ARE PROBLEMS with the batteries FULL STOP.…

> Boeing didn't design, engineer, fabricate, test and qualify these batteries in-house.

Are you implying Tesla does?

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/panasonic-en...

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#104
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be very interested in what they are saying if --and only if-- they had access to Boeing and FAA design and test data. You have to remember that the FAA had to approve these subsystems as well. I don't have any first-hand experience on just how detailed (or not) this certification process might be. Once again, how could anyone say anything at all without looking at data. To make a really dumb analogy, it's like cl…

Your points are common sense. You can therefore assume that other men, including the men you are criticizing, know them. Given this, and given that they are speaking publicly, I would wager that they have more access to data than you presume.

Except common sense is not very common.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#106
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if the engineers at Boing are REALLY good (and that's not guaranteed by any means) then you've still go the subcontractor problem to deal with. Boeing didn't design, engineer, fabricate, test and qualify these batteries in-house. Saying that they have advanced degrees from prestigious institutions makes it less likely that they have made mistakes is a non-starter. There ARE PROBLEMS with the batteries FULL STOP.…

> Boeing didn't design, engineer, fabricate, test and qualify these batteries in-house. Are you implying Tesla does? http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/panasonic-en...

All he did was invalidating this argument from the parent.

> The problem here is that the engineers at Boeing are not clowns. Unless you consider people with advanced degrees from the top engineering schools in the world to be clowns.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#107
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is a very smart move by Musk from a PR point of view. This is an awful PR move if he's wrong. I hope he's sure.

It's a smart PR move in either scenario. It's unlikely this will matter if he is wrong. If he is correct, this will become an even larger main stream news story and there is a good chance that his prescience will be picked up and included in how it is reported. More importantly, if this becomes a major story, he has preempted the inevitable look at other products (tesla) which include li-ion batteries by describing t…

No one ever remembers the predictions you got wrong, just the ones you got right. It's the basis of all punditry.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#108
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadoway is one of the world's leading geniuses in this field.

Mostly in jest: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 "The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible." -- A Yale University management professor in re…

Bill Gates never said that.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#109
post #33
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes me wonder what the next public and private PR moves should be for Boeing. My first guess is that their strategy should: A) Mention the tradeoffs involved with any engineering project B) Quickly accept blame instead of pushing it off to a supplier, a single employee and/or group (i.e., even if they have excellent reason and evidence for doing so) C) Make known their official stance on Elon's technical asses…

D) take EM's offer and source the batteries / solution to a joint boeing-spacex/tesla project and proudly proclaim that they're going to the world's experts on batteries, the same people that NASA trusts - SpaceX. This provides positive press for both companies and (provided they fix the problem) resolves any long term problems that might completely destroy their business (like having multiple planes catch fire or bl…

They can't do that since Boeing are in a joint venture as direct competition to SpaceX, as stated in the article.

Re: Elon Musk: Boeing 787 battery fundamentally unsafe

#110

While I can't dispute anything that is being said I think it is unfortunate that this is playing out the way it is. I can't dispute it because there's virtually no reliable publicly-available information on the design of this battery pack. I think it is unbecoming of an engineer or scientist, particularly of prominence, to voice such opinions without access to design data from the source. Before I could even begin to…

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