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Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

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Re: Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

#51

Post by thaumaturgy »

joezydeco wrote: post #37
thaumaturgy wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't tell if you're being serious or not.

Totally serious. I changed the graph to "relative" to show growth of the term over the period.

Just in case the xkcd that crntaylor posted doesn't explain the situation well enough:

Let's assume that there's 10,000 total job postings in your graph. If the "rock star" trend grew from just 1 posting to just 70 postings, that would represent a 7000% growth over the period, even though "rock star" would still represent just .007 of the total market.

Growth graphs answer a very specific kind of question, and it's rarely the question that people mean to ask.

Or, put another way: click the "Absolute" link next to "Scale", under "engineer, programming, engineering, rock star Job Trends".

Re: Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

#53

Post by dragonwriter »

Since they appear to search some set of available online job listing sites, its clearly a change in the mix of listings at those sites -- but it doesn't even necessarily mean a change in relative number of tech jobs to other jobs available (much less a tech crash). Simply a burst in non-tech jobs being more widely posted to different job sites (or new job sites that are non-tech oriented being added to indeed.com's database) would produce this effect.

Re: Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

#55

Post by seregine »

dragonwriter wrote: post #53

Since they appear to search some set of available online job listing sites, its clearly a change in the mix of listings at those sites -- but it doesn't even necessarily mean a change in relative number of tech jobs to other jobs available (much less a tech crash). Simply a burst in non-tech jobs being more widely posted to different job sites (or new job sites that are non-tech oriented being added to indeed.com's d…

In fact there's a corresponding uptick in "health" jobs: http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=software%2C+health&l=

Re: Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

#56

Post by dragonwriter »

seregine wrote: post #55
dragonwriter wrote: post #53

Since they appear to search some set of available online job listing sites, its clearly a change in the mix of listings at those sites -- but it doesn't even necessarily mean a change in relative number of tech jobs to other jobs available (much less a tech crash). Simply a burst in non-tech jobs being more widely posted to different job sites (or new job sites that are non-tech oriented being added to indeed.com's d…

In fact there's a corresponding uptick in "health" jobs: http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=software%2C+health&l=

Also, tax. Is it seasonality? Is it a bigger trend in expansion of non-tech jobs? Is it more non-tech jobs getting posted more widely on job listing sites? Is it indeed.com indexing more sites that favor non-tech jobs? Is it something else? Is it a combination of some of these?

Really hard to tell.

Certainly not a strong basis for suspecting a tech collapse of any sort.

Re: Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

#57

Post by skyebook »

brador wrote: post #22
svachalek wrote: post #10

I think you're just not using modern terminology: http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=rock+star&l=

Don't forget the http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=Ninja&l= http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=Guru&l=

It would seem the guru market is crashing pretty hard after solid growth. Might be smart to do some job retraining to become a ninja

Re: Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

#58

Post by jdavis703 »

According to this Indeed graph most jobs are seeing a decline in new postings: http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends/industry

I'd be more inclined to hypothesize that companies are slowing down hiring after bringing on lots of people post-recession. It would be more concerning if numbers such as unemployment were creeping up.

Re: Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

#59

Post by eranation »

svachalek wrote: post #10

I think you're just not using modern terminology: http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=rock+star&l=

I think people are looking for candidates in alternative places, via Github, SE careers 2.0, coderwall, twitter, IRC, linkedin (direct connections), meetups, hacker news, and less via major job listing sites that indeed crawls. But it's a good question. Anyone feeling all of a sudden that it's easier to fill an engineer's position?

EDIT: the absolute graph is described as "percentage of matching job postings" so it's absolute (total number of jobs), but still "relative" to "other" job titles. so theoretically, one explanation could be that the economy was recovering faster on the tech industry, but now other sectors are catching up... (just a thought, not sure I'm even convinced, but still worth checking).

EDIT2: Seems that a clearly defined crash is not what most recruiters think about for 2013: http://media.dice.com/report/december-2012-special-edition-h...

Re: Is there some kind of tech crash happening right now?

#60

Post by olivier1664 »

mopatches wrote: post #13

The chart is based on relative percentage, not absolute counts. So it's useless - if more gardeners look for jobs on Indeed.com then the engineer/developer/etc lines in this chart drop off. The chart doesn't mean anything in isolation.

In relative percentage AND in the job offers that indeed.com have. Maybe job's offers for dev is done by another way than indeed.com. Maybe, as you suggest, there is a massive look for gardeners jobs. Maybe, the dev's keywords are more specific (It seems not: other keywords like "javascript" or "ios" show the same graph). Maybe there is effectively less demands than before.
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