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SpaceX to Launch Private Astronauts in 2015

spacesafetymagazine.com

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Re: SpaceX to Launch Private Astronauts in 2015

#11

Post by neolefty »

bane wrote: post #7

I think it goes to show the incredible depth of engineering in the U.S. to go from start in 2002 to humans in 2015, 13 years, with all new tools, designs, engineering and manufacture with so few people and such little monetary investment. It's astonishing...

They're creating plenty, no doubt, but Musk talks admiringly of Apollo and how valuable the experimentation and open designs of that era have been for SpaceX. It allowed them to focus on a much smaller design space.

Unfortunately, I can't find a good source for it (I remember reading an interview with Musk where he talked about it). I think everyone recognizes that they are standing on the shoulders of giants and says so frequently.

Interestingly, the Soyuz and Apollo programs, although their missions were similar, differed significantly in engineering culture. I heard a story about the Soyuz-NASA collaboration that lead up to the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo%E2%80%93Soyuz_Test_Proje...): NASA engineers met with Soyuz engineers and asked for engineering specifications, but the Soyuz engineers couldn't give them (or maybe they just weren't very detailed) because most things were in people's heads rather than documented. The Russians were iterative and practical, and had very robust systems, but they were not nearly as formal as the NASA blokes.

In the end, I wonder if that lack of careful documentation on Soyuz' part diminished its long-term helpfulness? Or did they later record their designs more carefully? I would be curious to know. Apollo documents are apparently available for aspiring rocket builders. Hurray for openness in publicly funded research.

Re: SpaceX to Launch Private Astronauts in 2015

#13

Post by InclinedPlane »

maaku wrote: post #9
JshWright wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2-3 years seems to be SpaceX's preferred timeline (and they've hit most of them so far)

? They've actually missed almost all of their deadlines. 3-5 years is more realistic (if I were a betting man) based on past performance. But they've certainly hit all their milestones, eventually, which is much more than can be said for nearly every other private space venture.

It can be said for nearly every other space venture, period.

Re: SpaceX to Launch Private Astronauts in 2015

#14

Post by InclinedPlane »

johncarpinelli wrote: post #8
bane wrote: post #7

I think it goes to show the incredible depth of engineering in the U.S. to go from start in 2002 to humans in 2015, 13 years, with all new tools, designs, engineering and manufacture with so few people and such little monetary investment. It's astonishing...

Let's hope they land humans on the Moon and Mars in the next 13 years. Elon has much more capital now than back in 2002. They are the most likely company to settle space.

SpaceX has the lowest costs of any launch provider, and within about 2 years they will have the greatest capabilities in launch vehicles with the addition of the Falcon Heavy. That combination has already allowed them to gain an impressive amount of launch contracts, fulfilling those contracts successfully ought to cement them as the most favored launch provider in the world. And the combination of low internal costs and high volume will likely translate into a profit windfall of the sort that we are more accustomed to seeing from dot coms. Based on every indication they will use that windfall to finance R&D on even more audacious plans such as super heavy lift rockets and the colonization of Mars.

Re: SpaceX to Launch Private Astronauts in 2015

#15

Post by rst »

yakiv wrote: post #12

What is the target market? Would most of the customers likely be governments?

Their current work is under contract to NASA; they're one of three private companies developing spacecraft for possible future use in ferrying astronauts to the International Space Station. (The other two are Boeing and the Sierra Nevada corporation, a defense contractor.)

Other possible markets would include space tourism and research trips to private space stations, along the lines of what Bigelow Aerospace is trying to develop.

As to governments other than the US, SpaceX could probably sell launch services, but it would be a lot harder for them to sell the rockets (or, probably, spacecraft) to foreign governments. A lot of that technology comes under fairly tight arms trading regulations (for good reason; any launch vehicle can be transformed into an ICBM by reprogramming the guidance system).

Re: SpaceX to Launch Private Astronauts in 2015

#17

Post by marvin »

jlgreco wrote: post #4
JshWright wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2-3 years seems to be SpaceX's preferred timeline (and they've hit most of them so far)

Yeah, that seems to be the case. Manned flight is a massive step forward though. It's not just a matter of making sure everything they have today works well enough if people are on board, they still have critical systems that they still have to develop first! They still need to finish, then test and certify those second generation draco thrusters that would be used as the launch-abort system for instance. The crazies…

It says in this article that they've already scheduled a launch abort test, which presumably involves a Dragon capsule with the SuperDraco escape thrusters. So things are going really fast.

http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2013/01/22/nasa-passed-fa...

The Grasshopper experiments are also going along really well. I am shocked how quickly SpaceX is achieving milestones.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F75JMmFoEcE

Re: SpaceX to Launch Private Astronauts in 2015

#19

Post by gdy »

neolefty wrote: post #11
bane wrote: post #7

I think it goes to show the incredible depth of engineering in the U.S. to go from start in 2002 to humans in 2015, 13 years, with all new tools, designs, engineering and manufacture with so few people and such little monetary investment. It's astonishing...

They're creating plenty, no doubt, but Musk talks admiringly of Apollo and how valuable the experimentation and open designs of that era have been for SpaceX. It allowed them to focus on a much smaller design space. Unfortunately, I can't find a good source for it (I remember reading an interview with Musk where he talked about it). I think everyone recognizes that they are standing on the shoulders of giants and say…

Or maybe they just needed an excuse for not giving those specs.

Re: SpaceX to Launch Private Astronauts in 2015

#20

Post by krie »

Yeah, no. Elon Musk should instead focus on fixing the Peaks that will make the Almighty Industrial Revolution look like a blip on the easel of the history of history. Space travel, cars and the Internet has no future beyond the next 10~ years. Possibly shorter if the financial paradigm falls sooner.

* Peak oil, gas, coal, phosphorous, rare earth metals, uranium, copper, iron und su weiter.

Sorry Elon!

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