Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions • Hacker News Board

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#11

Post by mc32 » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:32 AM UTC

moocow01 wrote: post #4

The market is worth trillions... not Google's solution. One thing tech reporters seem to have failed at recognizing is that this research has been taking place at every major car company out there - many many others are legitimately in the race. Ultimately its the manufacturers that get to pull the trigger on how driverless cars will become driverless.

Not only car companies either. Lots of state DoTs like CalTrans (in conjunction with UCBerkeley) have been working on self driving cars. The Caltrans-UCB PATH prgram was begun way back in '86 and demoed self driving cars back in '97!

http://www.eastbayexpress.com/ebx/the-future-is-in-the-past/...

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#12

Post by autarch » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:34 AM UTC

I think the implications are huge, but I question the 90% reduction in cars figure.

While it's true that most people don't drive their car most of the time, when they do drive, most of them are driving within a relatively small time window.

I could imagine a 25-50% reduction in the number of cars, but I just don't see 90% happening unless it's accompanied by a huge increase in people working from home or working non-standard hours.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#13

Post by GIFtheory » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:35 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #5

jacques_chester wrote: post #2

This assumes Google will have the market to itself. Cars aren't like search. It's not a winner-takes-all market.

Google's not selling cars. It's selling automotive technology that will soon become standard in cars.

The solution is much farther off than Google would like you to believe. As in, we'll be lucky if driverless cars become feasible before fusion becomes commercially viable.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#14

Post by lylemckeany » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:35 AM UTC

Like some others have mentioned, the title is somewhat misleading. There is no feasible way that Google ends up owning the entire market. And I'm not talking about the actual cars, because they're definitely not getting in the car making business. Even when it comes to the software, they could only be the only provider in the market if it becomes a government regulated monopoly.

As a side note, I think the resistance to driverless cars will be a big psychological stumbling block. I can't ride in the passenger seat of a car without hitting the "brakes" and pressing my foot into the floor. It will be tough to break habits and to trust that the software is safe.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#15

Post by coopdog » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:38 AM UTC

moocow01 wrote: post #4

The market is worth trillions... not Google's solution. One thing tech reporters seem to have failed at recognizing is that this research has been taking place at every major car company out there - many many others are legitimately in the race. Ultimately its the manufacturers that get to pull the trigger on how driverless cars will become driverless.

Still, I can't help but feel that maybe Google have the final piece of the puzzle. We've had computers and sensors powerful enough for decades, only Google have all of that maps data, polished again and again by android users using maps (and now Ingress) to make it more reliable.

Google almost specialise at crunching massive data into useful products, and building reliable supersystems from millions of unreliable subsystems.

Car companies might have some software knowledge these days but they really are a long way from the capabilities Google has. They solve car problems, but it might turn out that this is an information system problem.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#16

Post by OGinparadise » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:41 AM UTC

Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

Amazing! He studied and compared all other driver-less cars to Google's and came to this conclusion.

I know a writer getting paid for clicks wouldn't forget that virtually every major car company is working on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Driverless_car#History

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#17

Post by jmspring » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:42 AM UTC

The next several years should prove "interesting" for the car market. Driverless cars and assorted state DOT departments pushing for black boxes in cars on the basis of tracking milage are both going to see pushback from the general public.

I've bought two new cars (and 1 used) in the last 15 years. The oldest lasted 11 years and 256000 miles. The used was a truck when I bought my house. The newest is a diesel wagon getting 40+ miles to the gallon, I don't plan on selling it anytime soon.

I will be loath to add GPS for purposes of tax calculation (sure it can be done based off registration or other means -- at least the GPS data isn't there). And, I don't predict any incentive to move people from driving their own cars to self-driving cars.

The above is in addition to the "independence" baked into the American culture about the open road and the automobile.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#18

Post by wololo » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:44 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #5

jacques_chester wrote: post #2

This assumes Google will have the market to itself. Cars aren't like search. It's not a winner-takes-all market.

Google's not selling cars. It's selling automotive technology that will soon become standard in cars.

I don't understand. Why license it out? Isn't this like the iPhone?

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#19

Post by sshumaker » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:48 AM UTC

GIFtheory wrote: post #13

anigbrowl wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's not selling cars. It's selling automotive technology that will soon become standard in cars.

The solution is much farther off than Google would like you to believe. As in, we'll be lucky if driverless cars become feasible before fusion becomes commercially viable.

Evidence?

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#20

Post by wwweston » Thu, Jan 24, 2013, 6:50 AM UTC

daniel-cussen wrote: post #9

jacques_chester wrote: post #2

This assumes Google will have the market to itself. Cars aren't like search. It's not a winner-takes-all market.

The software might become like Android---a standard. Largely because of interoperability: it's advantageous for cars to talk to one another in order to coordinate on the highway better than just with sensors, so it makes sense for them all to be of the same operating system. Further, people who make apps for these cars will want to deploy to as many as possible. So, "IceDriver 2015" will choose Google's car OS over (…

> it's advantageous for cars to talk to one another

If "never trust the client" is a truism in software, I'd assume it'd be doubly so for P2P communication, and add another doubling for a situation involving humans + relatively high masses and speeds.