Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Apple stock down 10% after hours

google.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 34 posts

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#21

Post by czhiddy »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #16

It's crazy they they sell a very conventional, understandable thing, a globally recognizable product of unlimited magic, that nearly every person of means in the world has or wants—and yet the market hammers them hard on a 0.7% miss on expected revenue in a quarter with 8% fewer days than 2012Q1. Here's what I think they should do: Tim Cook needs to become a narcissistic billionaire who parrots about polyamory and mi…

What's more crazy is that _profits_ (what truly matters) actually beat expectations.

I could start a business selling $100 bills for $99.99 and report back enormous revenue numbers. Hell, I could probably match Amazon's losses and revenues to a T - maybe Wall Street will reward me with a 2000 P/E ratio.

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#23

Post by jarek »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #16

It's crazy they they sell a very conventional, understandable thing, a globally recognizable product of unlimited magic, that nearly every person of means in the world has or wants—and yet the market hammers them hard on a 0.7% miss on expected revenue in a quarter with 8% fewer days than 2012Q1. Here's what I think they should do: Tim Cook needs to become a narcissistic billionaire who parrots about polyamory and mi…

Apple was priced in part for being able to maintain consistent growth. Their latest results put this into some question, hence their value to investors drops.

If you think people haven't noticed that a quarter was shorter when pricing one of the largest, most prominent companies on the market, you're frankly out to lunch. Arbitrageurs would be on this in a heartbeat.

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#24

Post by gwright »

uptown wrote: post #17
fh973 wrote: post #10

Apple is in the category "growth company" and needs a growth story to justify its value. When the roof comes in sight, as it does currently, the party is over.

They've essentially refreshed their entire line of products, leaving a wide open field for 2013. Makes me wonder what they've got in their pipeline. If it's just spec bumps and incremental improvements to existing products, they may not have what it takes to excite. If they have a product or products that enter into new markets, they could return to the $700 levels we saw before. What I expect in 2013? What markets a…

I found the following comment from Tim Cook during the earnings call today interesting:

> We're working on some incredible stuff. The pipeline is chock full. We feel great about what we've got in store.

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#25

Post by vosper »

scarmig wrote: post #4
adambratt wrote: post #2

Biggest reason for this is that Wall Street has noticed the huge cash pile that Apple is just sitting on. A good chunk of their market cap is made up of this cash pile that they are reinvesting through their hedge fund. There's a reason why Amazon keeps going up even though they are barely profitable. Amazon keeps reinvesting their profits into the company's R&D rather than throwing it in the bank.

Interesting chance for a HN gut check: If you were offered $100k of Apple or $100k of Amazon right now, which would you choose? You would have to receive and hold for 10 years. To me, the answer to that is obvious (AMZN), but I'm curious if my intuition matches up with the general opinion. I'm not sure which would be a better sign. ETA: Original intent was to talk about 100k in dollars, not in shares.

I would also take Amazon - although they're huge they don't yet deliver everything you can buy (think groceries) and they have other services like AWS and Mechanical Turk that are growing and are without peer in their markets.

As for Apple, I think they will have a harder time staying at the forefront in a very competitive market now that the iPhone and (to a lesser extent) iPad are no longer have the "wow" factor that they used to.

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#26

Post by gojomo »

scarmig wrote: post #4
adambratt wrote: post #2

Biggest reason for this is that Wall Street has noticed the huge cash pile that Apple is just sitting on. A good chunk of their market cap is made up of this cash pile that they are reinvesting through their hedge fund. There's a reason why Amazon keeps going up even though they are barely profitable. Amazon keeps reinvesting their profits into the company's R&D rather than throwing it in the bank.

Interesting chance for a HN gut check: If you were offered $100k of Apple or $100k of Amazon right now, which would you choose? You would have to receive and hold for 10 years. To me, the answer to that is obvious (AMZN), but I'm curious if my intuition matches up with the general opinion. I'm not sure which would be a better sign. ETA: Original intent was to talk about 100k in dollars, not in shares.

Can I take 80K AAPL, 20K AMZN (the rough proportion of their market-caps)? I want the 100K, but don't feel any need to prove I can beat the market in such massively-held stocks.

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#27

Post by Steko »

scarmig wrote: post #4
adambratt wrote: post #2

Biggest reason for this is that Wall Street has noticed the huge cash pile that Apple is just sitting on. A good chunk of their market cap is made up of this cash pile that they are reinvesting through their hedge fund. There's a reason why Amazon keeps going up even though they are barely profitable. Amazon keeps reinvesting their profits into the company's R&D rather than throwing it in the bank.

Interesting chance for a HN gut check: If you were offered $100k of Apple or $100k of Amazon right now, which would you choose? You would have to receive and hold for 10 years. To me, the answer to that is obvious (AMZN), but I'm curious if my intuition matches up with the general opinion. I'm not sure which would be a better sign. ETA: Original intent was to talk about 100k in dollars, not in shares.

Strange I think AAPL is the incredibly obvious choice here.

If Amazon grows their revenue at 40% every year (like they did in 2011) and manages a 3.5% margin (which they did for years although lower at the moment) then they will start seeing profits like AAPL's 2012 around 2021.

Meanwhile if AAPL grows at only 15% a year (and the trend is currently much higher) their numbers will have quadrupled in 10 years.

Keep those same growth rates and sometime around 2028 AMZN surpasses AAPL in annual profits; right around the time they hit $15 trillion in annual revenue.

I'm not all that confident that Apple can grow for 10 or even 15 years at any rate. There's a substantial risk that it all falls apart and we're all watching Zuck put his company logo on the new Apple headquarters when it finally opens. But the idea that Amazon has some magic profit engine that's going to appear sometime way down the road and justify their P/E ratio isn't just crazy, it's bananas. If anything they're already starting to succumb to the law of large numbers.

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#28

Post by jarek »

gwright wrote: post #24
uptown wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've essentially refreshed their entire line of products, leaving a wide open field for 2013. Makes me wonder what they've got in their pipeline. If it's just spec bumps and incremental improvements to existing products, they may not have what it takes to excite. If they have a product or products that enter into new markets, they could return to the $700 levels we saw before. What I expect in 2013? What markets a…

I found the following comment from Tim Cook during the earnings call today interesting: > We're working on some incredible stuff. The pipeline is chock full. We feel great about what we've got in store.

You weren't expecting him to say "yeah, we're just going to do an iPhone refresh and a retina iPad mini, and maybe refresh the Macbooks, if it's ready we'll do One More Thing wink wink", were you?

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#29

Post by jarek »

seiji wrote: post #12

Just to recap: this afternoon two Apple-Fact stories ("Apple releases earnings") get flagged the hell off the front page. At the same time, two anti-Apple posts float right to the top. People sure do resent success.

Not to worry, counter-flag brigade has checked in and this item is now not on first five pages of top stories.

Re: Apple stock down 10% after hours

#30

Post by jinushaun »

Cookingboy wrote: post #8
ScottBurson wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might be a reason for a long-term decline, but it's not a reason for it to drop 10% in a few hours. Something is going on (I have no idea what). EDITED to add: ah, I see they released earnings.

People emotionally overreacting to the slight revenue miss (by slight I mean missed over-hyped analyst expectation by 1%). It's bizarre to see that fundamentals are completely disregarded when it comes to trading the company with the highest market cap in the world.

Every time a company misses expectations, I always wonder if the analysts were just simply wrong.
Post reply on HN