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How to cut megabanks down to size

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Re: How to cut megabanks down to size

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I expected, you can't even articulate what crime you think was committed.

You are correct. The scale of your ignorance combined with the depth of your obliviousness to it rendered me speechless. Should you actually have any curiosity here (which I suspect you don't), you'll find that the resource I provided offers a view vastly more comprehensive than any one person could include in a single HN post. And not being one to suffer fools gladly, referring you to a comprehensive account of mult…

The guy you just said didn't know what a derivative is used to workas a quant.

Re: How to cut megabanks down to size

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct. The scale of your ignorance combined with the depth of your obliviousness to it rendered me speechless. Should you actually have any curiosity here (which I suspect you don't), you'll find that the resource I provided offers a view vastly more comprehensive than any one person could include in a single HN post. And not being one to suffer fools gladly, referring you to a comprehensive account of mult…

The guy you just said didn't know what a derivative is used to workas a quant.

Knowing the limits of my own knowledge, I was careful to say "appears".

But honestly, that only makes him even more dishonest. After all, he was saying that there was no real difference between banks involved in the subprime crisis and any homeowner "going long" with a bet on rising home prices. Except that there's a world of difference between placing a bet on a specific piece of tangible property in an open, regulated market, and placing bets of derivations from that market so far removed that they have no clear connection to reality. And he, of all people, should know it.

This refusal to see how cynically the inputs for financial models were being manipulated supports my view that many of the quants who played a key role in this mess had no idea who or what they were working with, that they were oblivious to the fraud and corruption engulfing the firms that employed them, and that they failed to register what would happen when things like fraudulent AAA ratings on securities found their way into a system. Among a broader class of market observers this blindness was attributed to a quasi-religious belief in efficient market theory, rejected the possibility of fraud out of hand.

The basic problem can be summarized as mistaking the map for the territory. In this case, the map was the Black-Scholes Equation. Or rather, the source of the maps was this formula. People who learned to model various risks to determine prices without properly understanding the equation's limits (there were many of both) ended up with catastrophically misguided decisions to their credit.

For a bit more background on all this, see here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/feb/12/black-scholes-...

If there's one thing that 'Inside Job' makes clear, it's that the policy framework that governs markets is absolutely critical to their stability and value. In America, this framework was subverted by the rise of an ideological (again, quasi-religious) form of market theory that say deregulation as both a practical and moral virtue. This was deep tissue corruption, and as it found its way into the laws that governed market players (or failed to govern, as the case may be), it opened the door to a cascade of fraud - people deliberately describing X as Y.

Like a ever-growing fog (toxic cloud, really) this continued until none of the major players had any idea what positions their counterparties were in. Knowing how fraudulent their own positions were, they had every reason to fear the worst from others in the same game. And then, on one horrible day in September, the music finally stopped.

To put it in very crude terms, a system built around bullshit eventually choked on the stuff. I'm not surprised that a person who shared more responsibility than most for the resulting catastrophe would respond by entering a state of deep denial. But it's sad, nonetheless.

Re: How to cut megabanks down to size

#103
post #67

The criminal actions[1] of Wachovia, Lloyds, Credit Suisse, Barclays, HSBC, et al have shown that the megabanks cannot be trusted to follow existing laws. The robo-signing debacle[2] has demonstrated amply that the financial sector can't be bothered to verify their data before destroying the lives of thousands of people. The LIBOR manipulation scandal[3] proves that even the industry's own measuring rods are bent and…

I always remember what Milton Friedman used to say, he was amazed be people who see failure of regulation and propose a fix by seeking to introduce even more regulation. "well this time it will surely work!" "if only we had the right kind of regulation/people in charge!" they say. That's never gonna happen. Breaking the system in chunks artificially will not work, because it will consolidate again and buy up the regu…

Extending this theory to the world of software it would make it foolish to update or iterate or anything, because thanks to the passage of time, you're just going to have to update and iterate all over again again.

On the other hand, rejecting idiocy like this gets us from Astrology to Astronomy, from Alchemy to Chemistry, and the Magna Carta to the US Constitution, and further, the amendments to it.

Re: How to cut megabanks down to size

#104
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how many of those people benefited directly from the bailouts? The idea that banks can't be allowed to fail is the fundamental fallacy that has underpinned the last five years. Of course they will argue that they "needed" their noses in the public trough.

all of them, I guess? not sure what you're advocating...in the Great Depression banks failed, the depositors lost all their savings, triggering runs on other banks, etc., hence the name Great Depression. so that wasn't a very sound policy. on the other hand a government backstop for a bunch of traders making giant risky bets with depositors' money so heads they win, tails we lose, is not a sound policy either. somewh…

I'd say the policy should be: reinstate glass-steigal on steroids. If and when banks fail, blow out the management and have unlimited FDIC insurance backstopped by the Fed. No need to apply discipline on the liability side of banking because it hurts main street. If the investment banks fail ( not commercial banks ) let them die. Whatever damage that causes to the macro economy, make up for it by providing stimulus projects/tax cuts as needed. Lets stop privatizing profits and socializing losses. BTW, you are right GS and JPM would have gone under if not for the bail outs. They were experiencing a classic bank run and not enough liquidity to support. A great opportunity to clean up wall street was missed. Instead the country was looted at the expense of main street and they got away with it. That is how it will look 100 years from now.

Re: How to cut megabanks down to size

#105
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, the Bailout Bill was signed by George W. Bush - a Republican approving the work of his own cabinet. The bailout wasn't the issue, by the way. Faced with a catastrophic crisis, propping up a criminal enterprise that we are utterly dependent upon is very much a lesser of two evils choice. The real problem is with sparing these bastards from even a hint of prosecution after the fact. If you want a more accurate view…

I didn't say opposition to bailouts was unanimous among Republicans, merely that the majority opposed them. As for "criminal enterprise" and "prosecution", could you remind me what crime was committed, and by whom? Last I checked, taking a long position on housing (the cause of the crisis) wasn't a crime. If it was, we need to jail every homeowner. Keeping Elizabeth Warren out of the public policy arena is a fantasti…

> See, for example, her nonsensical claims that medical costs cause millions of bankruptcies,

It is "common knowledge" that medical costs drive bankruptcies so I'm surprised to hear you say this; but of course, I know that "common knowledge" is often wrong. Can you explain how medical costs don't actually often result in bankruptcy?

(This is not an attempt at a sarcastic troll--I think you often, but not always, do have correct contrarian opinions, I just don't know what this one is.)

Re: How to cut megabanks down to size

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct. The scale of your ignorance combined with the depth of your obliviousness to it rendered me speechless. Should you actually have any curiosity here (which I suspect you don't), you'll find that the resource I provided offers a view vastly more comprehensive than any one person could include in a single HN post. And not being one to suffer fools gladly, referring you to a comprehensive account of mult…

The guy you just said didn't know what a derivative is used to workas a quant.

"yummyfajitas" may have been a quant, but if he's at all sincere about the questions he's asking, he's still a blithering idiot, and deeply dishonest to boot - with himself, if no one else. Here's more on the massive criminal fraud that he failed to see swirling all around him (unsurprising, perhaps, given the source of his paychecks).

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/business-economy-fin...

Re: How to cut megabanks down to size

#107
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say opposition to bailouts was unanimous among Republicans, merely that the majority opposed them. As for "criminal enterprise" and "prosecution", could you remind me what crime was committed, and by whom? Last I checked, taking a long position on housing (the cause of the crisis) wasn't a crime. If it was, we need to jail every homeowner. Keeping Elizabeth Warren out of the public policy arena is a fantasti…

> See, for example, her nonsensical claims that medical costs cause millions of bankruptcies, It is "common knowledge" that medical costs drive bankruptcies so I'm surprised to hear you say this; but of course, I know that "common knowledge" is often wrong. Can you explain how medical costs don't actually often result in bankruptcy? (This is not an attempt at a sarcastic troll--I think you often, but not always, do h…

It has been "common knowledge" ever since Warren pushed a study claiming it during election season.

The gist of the flaw is this:

    # Medical bankruptcies = # of bankruptcies x [P(bankruptcy | medical cause) - P(bankruptcy | no medical cause)] x P(medical cause)
Warren computed only P(medical cause | bankruptcy). Thus, her study cannot, even in principle, be used to estimate # medical bankruptcies.

However, she used verbiage hinting that P(medical cause | bankruptcy) x # of bankruptcies = # of medical bankruptcies (do the math - it's not). A bunch of innumerate reporters read the verbiage and ignored the math, leading this "fact" to become "common knowledge".

The claim may or may not be true - I don't know of good data on it. But all Warren did was deliberately confuse the issue to support her political allies.

See also http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2009/06/elizabet...

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