Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

news.ycombinator.com

31–40 of 48 posts

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#31
What the future will bring us: nobody knows, there has never been anything really similar in history...

The causes are very simple to describe: our (temporary) so successful economic system didn't follow many moral rules. And now we are all (the responsible and non) forced to pay for that (silly) mistake.

You may not agree with me, but I'm convinced that this will be the summary of our current situation, reviewed in about 50 years.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#32

hmm... you've been listening to Donny Deutch and Bill Maher, and you still don't know what's going on? Obviously, the problem is you didn't pay enough attention to Suzy Orman.

I, for one, find a dosage of both Glenn Beck and Nancy Grace really gets me a better grounding to how to live my life.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#33
It's funny that you ask for case studies, because many people argue that what is happening right now has never happened before.

I'm studying business with a healthy dose of economics, and when we ask Professors, they even don't know what is going on, and everyone who says so is just guessing. IMHO no one knows what's really going on!

We have to just let it play out. If you want to be somewhat prepared be flexible and adapt quickly to new situations as you see them developing. Not very useful and very generic but the only thing you and I can do.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#34

We might experience something like Japan's "lost decade" of the 1990s. I expect that, actually. But we'd live through it. My all-time favorite pair of HN comments was the question and answer I saw I think before I signed up here, when I was lurking for interesting discussions. Q: Anyone here lived through the Japan depression care to share their experiences with us? A: It was terrible. People were forced to eat raw f…

The current situation is much worse than Japan's "lost decade." Unfortunately, the crisis today is global in scope. When Japan went through its "lost decade," it was eventually able to export its way back to growth. That option does not exist today. Europe - particularly Eastern Europe - is contracting faster than the US; Japan is falling off a cliff; China is most likely already technically in recession. Trade and industrial production are actually contracting at faster rates than they did at any point during the Great Depression. It's not at all clear where global growth will come from at this point.

Obviously, we will have growth at some point in the future - maybe even in a year or so if we fix the financial system. But it might be five years from now. It might be ten. It might be longer. But there are social factors at work here complicating the picture. There is most likely going to be substantial social unrest around the world in the next few years. Eastern Europe and China are probably the most immediately vulnerable areas. It's impossible to predict what the consequences of potential social unrest or governments collapsing (like Latvia last week) would be, but they need to be considered in assessing how bad this current crisis could become.

This is not to say that we're all going to start living in a Steinbeck novel, or that shanty towns will start propping up everywhere. Our standard of living will go down, but we'll still live better than we did thirty or forty years ago. But we are going through an economic reset. This will be much worse than the mild recessions we've become accustomed to.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#35
post #20

I'm not worried. I've been saving adequately for a while now and I have a good job. Even if the job goes away I'll be alright, because I'm not afraid to wait tables (or perform any other type of manual labor). I didn't buy a house I couldn't afford and I went without when I could (even went so far as to live in a small room rented from a friend, where I slept on a $150 futon from Ikea for over a year and a half [this…

"Even if the job goes away I'll be alright, because I'm not afraid to wait tables (or perform any other type of manual labor)."

I think the unskilled labor jobs would be even more scarce than other jobs in a depression. It would work if you own a farm, so that you could turn manual labor into food directly, I suppose.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never heard of Peter Schiff being related to Ron Paul in any particular way (not saying he isn't, but "behind the politician" seems extremely implausible). I'll point out that Ron Paul's basic premises are what he's been espousing since the 1970s, when Peter Schiff was about ten years old. Wikipedia says "Schiff was an economic adviser to Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign." Sounds like he was one of multiple…

You're right, I overreacted. I just don't like seeing a politician trained in medicine given the same credibility on economic analysis as someone with a technical background in finance. Not to downplay Ron Paul's solutions to our economic problems, but I've never seen him make an in depth case for why we are where we are today like Schiff has -- his job doesn't call for it.

and I don't like to see people well trained in finance completely screw up the economy...as they have.

Most "experts" have no more credibility now than the masses who can barely calculate simple interest. They are a bunch of paid-for shills. Just because you understand the math behind derivatives does not mean they should have ever been allow to exist.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#37
post #20

I'm not worried. I've been saving adequately for a while now and I have a good job. Even if the job goes away I'll be alright, because I'm not afraid to wait tables (or perform any other type of manual labor). I didn't buy a house I couldn't afford and I went without when I could (even went so far as to live in a small room rented from a friend, where I slept on a $150 futon from Ikea for over a year and a half [this…

And here I thought I was alone in my thoughts and perception of the current situation :)

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#38

hmm... you've been listening to Donny Deutch and Bill Maher, and you still don't know what's going on? Obviously, the problem is you didn't pay enough attention to Suzy Orman.

I, for one, find a dosage of both Glenn Beck and Nancy Grace really gets me a better grounding to how to live my life.

Shout out to Larry Winget. The economy went down the tubes after they canceled Big Spender.

http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=larry-winget...

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#39
post #31

What the future will bring us: nobody knows, there has never been anything really similar in history... The causes are very simple to describe: our (temporary) so successful economic system didn't follow many moral rules. And now we are all (the responsible and non) forced to pay for that (silly) mistake. You may not agree with me, but I'm convinced that this will be the summary of our current situation, reviewed in…

I'm not sure how morality plays into the mistake. A lot of people deluded themselves into believing that housing prices would never go down. Some people did that because they worked for investment banks and wanted to earn large profits on bonds and some people did that because they wanted to live in California or Florida or Nevada. The only immorality that I have seen is people who lied about their finances on their mortgage applications and brokers who originated mortgages that were clearly unsuitable for the borrowers. There were plenty of people who did neither of these things who are just as much at fault in what happened because they made an honest mistake while trying to make a better life for themselves. What sort of moral rules should our economy follow to prevent this sort of thing from happening in the future?

Re: Ask HN: Are we in trouble?

#40

We might experience something like Japan's "lost decade" of the 1990s. I expect that, actually. But we'd live through it. My all-time favorite pair of HN comments was the question and answer I saw I think before I signed up here, when I was lurking for interesting discussions. Q: Anyone here lived through the Japan depression care to share their experiences with us? A: It was terrible. People were forced to eat raw f…

no need to look to Japan for this.

"Roger & Me is a 1989 American documentary film directed by independent filmmaker/author Michael Moore. With sarcasm and irony, Moore illustrates the negative economic impact of the late General Motors CEO Roger Smith's summary action of closing several auto plants in Flint, Michigan, costing 30,000 people their jobs and economically devastating the city.

[...]

The most famous resident that appears in the film is Rhonda Britton, who sells rabbits for "Pets or Meat" (The scene many believe was the reason Roger & Me received an R-rating features Britton killing a rabbit by beating it with a lead pipe. The rabbit fights back before and during the early part of the beating.)"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_%26_Me

Post reply on HN