11–20 of 48 posts
My big question: will the rest of the world continue to use USA's economy and currency as the global economic focal point and medium? -or will it abandon them for alternatives?
To my knowledge, nobody out there has anything approaching a realistic model of the current economy, either. It has countless variables that interact in countless ways, and producing results that have never been seen before.
Talking heads/pundits are for entertainment value only (depending on your definition of entertainment).
The only way to have confidence in a prediction for the future, at the moment, is by failing to understand the uncertainty of the situation.
We might experience something like Japan's "lost decade" of the 1990s. I expect that, actually. But we'd live through it. My all-time favorite pair of HN comments was the question and answer I saw I think before I signed up here, when I was lurking for interesting discussions. Q: Anyone here lived through the Japan depression care to share their experiences with us? A: It was terrible. People were forced to eat raw f…
Link to actual comment: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=329218 That comment is funny, but not actually useful. Sushi, consumer electronics, and karaoke were all a part of Japan become their economic turmoil. Since this is HN (as opposed to say, Reddit), I would like to see actual facts suggesting that the situation in Japan in the 1990s was not that bad, as opposed to snarky comments.
The fact that might appeal to other ways of looking at the issue would be a fact about immigration to Japan from other areas of Asia.
"The growing status of Japan as a major global and regional economic player was the background for the arrival of newcomers. The rise in the value of the yen, labor shortages, and the development of transnational networks (including the activities of migrant brokers) all contributed to a marked increase in foreign migrant workers in the late 1980s.
"The number of visa overstayers, who comprised the bulk of immigrant workers, grew from 100,000 in 1990 to 300,000 in 1993, and stood at around 207,000 as of January 2005. They have come mostly from other Asian countries, such as Korea, China, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia."
http://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display.cfm?ID=...
"However, two channels were available for de facto 'unskilled' labor migration. One was the trainee system, which subsequently expanded with the launching in 1993 of the Technical Internship Trainee Program. As of 2004, there were over 75,000 foreign workers in Japan under this program, marking the largest number ever. They found opportunities in agriculture, fishery, construction, food manufacturing, textile, machinery and metal, and other industries.
"The other channel was the recruitment of Nikkeijin (descendants of Japanese emigrants), who were given access to residential status with no restriction on employment. The most important visible impact of the legal reform was the influx of Japanese Brazillians.
"Whereas the aggregate number of visa overstayers began to decrease in 1993, according to Immigration Bureau statistics, the Brazilian population more than tripled from 56,000 in 1990 to over 176,000 in 1995, and to over 286,000 in 2004."
The problem isn't really all that complicated to explain. However, no simple solutions have been presented yet. Instead, the US government and others are opting to push for much more of the same stuff that got us into this mess to begin with.
Yeah, probably. But while you're slogging through it remember this: It will get better. "The Greatest Generation" emerged from the Depression, the dot.com boom followed the Gen-X "McJob" years and the "something-something" will follow whatever we end up calling this mess. Ask any unlucky sod who finished school just in time for the last nasty recession and they may tell you how unbelievably bleak and hopeless things…
"The Greatest Generation" emerged from the Depression, the dot.com boom followed the Gen-X "McJob" years and the "something-something" will follow whatever we end up calling this mess.
That's like saying the day follows the night. It's true though.
Peter Schiff has an interesting take on things. As does Ron Paul. Both seem to understand what is really going on. The problem isn't really all that complicated to explain. However, no simple solutions have been presented yet. Instead, the US government and others are opting to push for much more of the same stuff that got us into this mess to begin with.
Much of what Schiff predicts are dependent on the rest of the world 'cutting us off' by depegging their currencies from the dollar and turning away from treasury bonds -- both of which are not happening, and to the contrary, much of the world is turning toward our treasury bonds in this crisis. Oil being down and perceived weakness in the euro are definitely helping us right now, too.
Peter Schiff has an interesting take on things. As does Ron Paul. Both seem to understand what is really going on. The problem isn't really all that complicated to explain. However, no simple solutions have been presented yet. Instead, the US government and others are opting to push for much more of the same stuff that got us into this mess to begin with.
FYI Peter Schiff is the economic advisor behind the politician, Ron Paul. [EDIT: for the 2008 Presidential Campaign] Much of what Schiff predicts are dependent on the rest of the world 'cutting us off' by depegging their currencies from the dollar and turning away from treasury bonds -- both of which are not happening, and to the contrary, much of the world is turning toward our treasury bonds in this crisis. Oil bei…
Wikipedia says "Schiff was an economic adviser to Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign." Sounds like he was one of multiple economic advisers, and it sounds like they aren't associated in any official capacity today.
I didn't buy a house I couldn't afford and I went without when I could (even went so far as to live in a small room rented from a friend, where I slept on a $150 futon from Ikea for over a year and a half [this was during 'good times']).
All this talk about bailouts is very upsetting to me. I never asked for anything when I didn't have anything.
A very small bitter part of me wants the country to fall apart. If it does maybe people, will stand to the challenge, by standing with one another and overcoming. If not then maybe at least the glow of their reality tv will keep them warm.
There is no rational in going into a panic. This is a financial problem. It's not like people are dying en masse as a direct result from this.