Mark Lynas, environmentalist who opposed GMOs, admits he was wrong.

Google Cache: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:HiRysAG...

I'll post my comment separately once I've looked at it.

His views are insubstantial. His main argument is that his previous ad hominem positions were not sufficient to condemn GMOs (correct) and that GMOs haven't caused any problems yet.

He has not presented evidence that GMO's are safe. He has two main arguments:

1. Trial and error crossbreeding affects entire genes. 2. Viruses sometimes spread genes from one organism to another.

First, trial and error crossbreeding isn't likely to produce anything catastrophic. We've been interbreeding plants for milennia. Current techniques may be more risky, but generally speaking it should be hard for plants to produce a horrid mutation based on natural interbreeding mechanisms.

Second, just becauses cross species gene transfers do occur doesn't mean that it's safe when we do it. If such transfers have occurred in nature for a long, long time, then it's safe to say that nature has created pathways that are safe. Our pathways are new.

I'm making a Talebian argument here. Nature is a VERY complex system. When we mess with it, we make incremental visible gains, and run the risk of large, invisible losses.

It means nothing to say that GMOs haven't caused harm yet. All it would take would be ONE catastrophic GMO plant to cause large amounts of damage. By definition, we won't be able to foresee this until it happens.

HN is a very tech positive community, and also a community that's very aware of the complexity of large system, and their fragility when meddled with. When considering GMOs, many forget complexity due to a pro-technology attitude.

A superficial reading of the news would lead one to believe that Monsanto == GMO, and I believe a lot of people are swayed to be in the anti-GMO camp by the bullying tactics of Monsanto.

I'm curious what sort of realistic disaster scenario you think might occur due to cross-species gene transfer (and for that matter, purely synthetic genes) in GMOs, and how the existing safeguards are inadequate against it. Normally I'm against FUD, but please, go nuts, so long as there's a reasonable chance of it occurring (i.e. we're not talking about a mad scientist who wants to create man-eating plants)

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I know enough to know that we don't know enough. Too many times we've done things that in hindsight should never have been done had we had more information. I fear this may be one of those times.