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Has anyone seen any economic case studies, predictions, or articles, that can shed some light on what is REALLY going on here.
Some friends of mine today got two messages from their employers: their pay was cut 18% and their insurance premiums went up 23%. It's going to hurt but the worst thing they can do is let the fear sap their energy.
I personally think it's going to be bad for 12-18 months then a slow recovery. The financial assumptions for many businesses and people will fall away. If you are in some business that depends on consumer discretionary funds, I would look for alternatives (not jump like a spooked cat, look for for alternatives ahead of time).
If it's any consolation my Brasilian, Venezuelan and Argentinian friends think we're all a bunch of pussies for worrying so much and not preparing rationally.
Q: Anyone here lived through the Japan depression care to share their experiences with us?
A: It was terrible. People were forced to eat raw fish for sustenance. They couldn't get full-sized electronics, so they were forced to make tiny ones. Unable to afford proper entertainment, folks would make do by taking turns to get up and sing songs.
"The Greatest Generation" emerged from the Depression, the dot.com boom followed the Gen-X "McJob" years and the "something-something" will follow whatever we end up calling this mess.
Ask any unlucky sod who finished school just in time for the last nasty recession and they may tell you how unbelievably bleak and hopeless things felt while they took any odd job they could find just to pay rent and eat (my own situation, fwiw). Still, they were able to enjoy the magical tech boom just a few years later and, during that boom, it was hard to believe there was ever a time of job and capital scarcity.
The economy is cyclical, fortunes rise and fall, and you have to work with the hand you've been dealt. Times will be tough (for some, even worse than you're picturing) but things will get better and the good times will return.
Then, when they do, remember that it'll crater again some day and prepare accordingly, because almost everyone else will have forgotten.
We might experience something like Japan's "lost decade" of the 1990s. I expect that, actually. But we'd live through it. My all-time favorite pair of HN comments was the question and answer I saw I think before I signed up here, when I was lurking for interesting discussions. Q: Anyone here lived through the Japan depression care to share their experiences with us? A: It was terrible. People were forced to eat raw f…
Calculated Risk: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
The sidebar should have all the analysis you could possibly want. Try not to overdose on it while drinking; alcohol is a depressant.
I do not think that studies or predictions are what you/we really need.
What are the odds that a prediction, based on past/future assumptions, modeled by some economist is really going to help anyone out? I'll answer my own question - the odds are VERY VERY low.
Hunker down - work hard and put a band aid on what ails you and stop relying on Donny Deutch or Bill Maher to shed light on what is REALLY going on.
If my company is struggling and I cant make it work out, I'll have to figure something out and so will everyone else who is in a tough spot. Whatever your worst case scenario is, you'll be able to deal with it and it will not be as bad as you imagined it (God/Buddha/Spaghetti Monster willing)
We might experience something like Japan's "lost decade" of the 1990s. I expect that, actually. But we'd live through it. My all-time favorite pair of HN comments was the question and answer I saw I think before I signed up here, when I was lurking for interesting discussions. Q: Anyone here lived through the Japan depression care to share their experiences with us? A: It was terrible. People were forced to eat raw f…
That comment is funny, but not actually useful. Sushi, consumer electronics, and karaoke were all a part of Japan become their economic turmoil. Since this is HN (as opposed to say, Reddit), I would like to see actual facts suggesting that the situation in Japan in the 1990s was not that bad, as opposed to snarky comments.